FL sends McCain camp SCRAMBLING... their game plan is TOAST

[FlyingSquirrel]

I don't think McCain ever played basketball. Obama laid low in FL, let McCain think he was gonna just concede the state. Then he threw a head fake toward IN, WV, NC etc and now he's headed for the basket!

FL is a GAME CHANGER. Obama's up by 1.5 points and if the trend continues he'll win by 5 points or more.



You can't steal 'em all, John.

MI is essentially out of reach now. Added to the rest of the blue states you get 219 EV.

Add FL and it's 246 EV for Obama. He only needs 23 more to tie and 24 more to win.

----------------------

Before this happened, McCain was looking at maintaining slim leads in NH, VA, NV, NC, FL, IN, and OH, (with the help of election day shenanigans and voter roll purges) and then stealing ONE of the following: CO, MN, PA or WI for the win.

----------------------

Won't happen now. If McCain doesn't hold FL, all Obama needs to do is:

Win PA + one other state
Win OH + one other state
Win WI and MN + one other state
Win WI and CO + one other state (NH would make it a tie)
Win MN and CO + one other state (NH would make it a tie)
Win WI + VA (this would make it a tie)
Win MN + VA (this would make it a tie)

-----------------------

If McCain doesn't hold FL, his task becomes MUCH more difficult:

He must maintain his slim leads in NH, VA, NV, NC, IN and OH (and MO & WV, where Obama's been making inroads)

AND

Steal PA, PLUS one other state (WI, CO, MN)

or

if Obama wins PA, McCain must steal ALL THREE of the remaining states (WI, CO and MN).

-----------------------

That last scenario is a near-impossibility, which is why you see Fox News now concentrating on PA with a vengeance and trying to make it look like a toss-up state when in fact it's CLEARLY light blue.



If you haven't seen the FoxNews video where they try to spin a full room of people in PA planning to vote for Obama into a "split",
it's a gem.

-----------------------

Watch PA, folks and watch it carefully. That's gonna be the new Ohio this year.

[Jensen]

1. Fired UP ready to go! Obama 08!

Voted today!

[voteearlyvoteoften]

17. Not one McCain supporter while phone banking yesterday in FL

I call Dem's, no party's, and independents. Usually get a few McCain's esp from the older men. But yesterday for the first time after two hours of calls NOT ONE FOR McWhatever.

[Lorien]

2. I really hope they are right

I live in a generally "blue" area of Florida and there are far more McCain signs up this year than Bush signs last time around-but I'm hoping that the fact that Obama didn't print up many lawn signs is the real reason why I'm not seeing many (I ordered on myself but it never got here).

[progressivemom]

4. Don't worry about the signs :)

I live in a red part of FL and we've been out of signs for a while. They're backordered for a couple of weeks.

[Shine]

3. The turning tide has become a tidal wave.

:toast:

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Let's hope so. If FL is in Obama's column I'll be less worried

but still untrusting. If FL and PA are BOTH in Obama's column by 6% or more the day before the election, then I'll be fairly calm watching the results.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. PA will NOT go to McLame.

It has voted for the Democratic candidate in the last 4 Presidential elections.

I was in a Toys R Us this week looking for some halloween stuff for one of my nieces and there were some amazing young folks there walking around the store with voter registration forms asking everyone they saw whether they were registered to vote and if so, would they be voting for Obama. In my almost 30 years of voting, I have never seen anything like it.

[Coexist]

8. Unions in PA GOTV effort hands it to Dems every cycle.

Unions Rock!

[Guaranteed]

7. Florida- the "backdoor." nt

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. Ok now that we got all the debate threads outta the way

lemme kick my own post 'cause I spent a bit of time on it and I want 2 more recs

:party:

[Waiting For Everyman]

10. And the grandkid "schleppers" are on their way down there soon.

[truthisfreedom]

11. McCain can't steal MN. Obama signs everywhere. Everyone talking up Obama.

OPTICAL SCAN voting, with an original ink paper trail that is unable to be faded (non-thermal).

[Odin2005]

23. And we have ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION!!!

Makes voter roll purges impossible.

[magdalena]

12. I'm certain Obama will take WI and MN.

We've both gone blue for quite a few years now. Even in my traditionally red county in Wisco there are very few McLame signs.

[alwysdrunk]

13. This FL stuff is encouraging

I've been hearing about Florida being within reach lately. You seem pretty good with the figures, can Obama still win if he loses FL and OH?

[FlyingSquirrel]

15. Obama can absolutely win if he loses FL and OH.

Not that I want to think that way. But here is the most likely win scenario without them:

D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Vermont 3
Rhode Island 4
Maryland 10
New York 31
Massachusetts 12
Illinois 21
Delaware 3
California 55
Connecticut 7
Iowa 7
Oregon 7
Maine 4
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
Washington 11
Michigan 17
Wisconsin 10
Pennsylvania 21
Minnesota 10
Colorado 9

That's 269 EV which is a tie. He would need one more state, most likely NH, VA or NV to seal the deal. Otherwise it goes to the House, most people think that would result in a win for him and Biden both, but there are many possible outcomes (none of which result in a McCain presidency though.)

[AllentownJake]

14. If there is voter fraud in PA

we committed it. Every level of state government other than Attorney General is controlled by us. PA will not be Ohio.

[MagickMuffin]

16. Obama has 400 Field Organizers in PA

That's what one of our Field Organizers told us. He came back to Tarrant County after going to Chicago then PA. He did such a excellent job here during the primaries organizing our districts that the National campaign took notice and asked him to go to Chicago. After a few weeks in Chicago he went to PA, but since they had 400 field organizers he decided to come back to Texas and work on turning Tarrant County BLUE.


I did notice that there is a campaign going on in Philly with flyers going around telling voters if you have a warrant that if you don't pay them before election day then you will be arrested. The Mayor was made aware of it and they are planning on doing PSA's to inform the public this IS a scam. Let's just hope enough people hear about it.

[alphafemale]

18. That Faux News diner clip. Did you see that man toward the back start to raise his arm....

...for McCain and the woman sitting next to him slaps it down?

:rofl:

[FlyingSquirrel]

19. Hehehe that was awesome. :-D

[alphafemale]

21. ...and then she raised BOTH arms for Obama!

:rofl:

[Glenda]

20. kick

:kick:

[FlyingSquirrel]

22. Thanks... I may be speaking too quick about MI

Yes, they're pulling out staff but they could bring them back in later after using them to put out fires elsewhere. I don't want to make assumptions, but MI should go to Obama.

[mscuedawg]

24. Egg-cellent post...sorry, I had to go w/the scrambling and toast theme...eom