From Where I sit: McCain Has to run the Table on the 12 Battleground states to win

[Perky]

I have been watvhing the polls for months, and it ic clear theat there has been a huge break Obama's way in the last few daye.

If you look at the internal numbers it is very clear that Men are abandoning McCain over Palin and the GenderGap amng women is reverting to form.

,

There were 11 Battleground states
Ohio (20 Electoral Votes)
Pennsylvania (21 EV)
Michigan (17 EV) (Gone)
Wisconsin (10 EV)
New Hampshire (4 EV)
Virginia (13 EV)
Florida (27 EV)
Missouri (11 EV)
Colorado (9 EV)
New Mexico (5 EV)
Nevada (5 EV)

That list now has to include North Carolina (15 EV)and Indiana (11 EV)

That said, with McCain pulling out of Michigan I have Obama with 269 electoral votes.

That means 12 Battlegrounds left, and McCain has to win every last one of them.

[gcomeau]

1. Ahem...

That said, with McCain pulling out of Michigan I have Obama with 269 electoral votes.

That means 12 Battlegrounds left, and McCain has to win every last one of them.

...to still almost certainly lose.

269 to 269 goes to a House vote of state delegations. Nate Silver looked at this scenario a while ago:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/like-kissing-your-sister.html

It's a bit long, but here's the summary:

If the electoral college ends in a tie and Obama wins the popular vote, I would guess the odds of his eventually becoming president would be upward of 97 percent. If McCain wins the popular vote there is more potential for Democratic defections, but I'd still expect Obama to be selected at least 75 percent of the time.

:)

[Perky]

3. TLook atthe probabilty of that happening.

Obama is ahead by 5to 10% in each of those states and McCain is fallingin the polls...except for two, Nevada and New Hampshire. I willconced both of those fo a win in Virginia

[mrJJ]

4. Must take PA

PA... is the key. Time to get down and dirty... Thats going to be the name of the game. This should morph into a slugfest not a campaign. The Republicans are good at this type of tactic. But everyone knows this would not be easy. Old man McCains 527's will come out swinging. Time to step up to the plate.

[Seen the light]

2. Unless Bin Laden mysteriously shows up this month, we're guaranteed President Obama

JMO.

[Ediacara]

5. That's not right. If we have all the battlegrounds except Michigan going to McCain, Obama has only

224 ECVs.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1&save=3-3-3-3-1-5-1-1-1-5-3-1-3-1-5-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-2-2-3-5-3-3-5-5-2-5-1-5-3-5-3-1-5-1-3-3-3-3-3-1-5-2-4-5-3

[Perky]

6. I Cheated. I have some BattleGrounds Blue already

CO, NM, WI and PA (He is up by ten in PA)

[Ediacara]

7. Gotcha

Quite frankly, I don't think it's going to be very close. McCain pulling out of Michigan is going to be the first of many, and it reminds me of the GOP pulling out of OH, PA, and MT in 2006.

FWIW, this is what I think the map will look like (plus Omaha's EV, making it 376).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1&save=3-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-3-1-1-1-3-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-3-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-3-1-1-1-3-3-3-3-3-1-1-1-3-1-3