Obama landslide?

[liberalpragmatist]

We still have 33 days to go until the election. Things could tighten again, but it certainly looks like Obama is in a pretty commanding position due to (1) the national environment being TOXIC for Republicans, (2) Obama's excellent campaign and (3) McCain's implosion.

Number 1 made this a likely Dem year, but the potential was there for a close race for several reasons. For one thing, open seat races are often fairly close, even if the incumbent party is unpopular. Second, Obama is relatively inexperienced and there is a lot of implicit racism and prejudice in the country. Out of the Republican candidates, McCain was probably best placed to make it close and possibly pull off an upset, because of his perceived moderation, his very public splits with the Republicans and, especially, with Bush, and because he was very popular with the general public.

He has proceeded to throw away all those advantages. His angry, lying campaign cost him the media (his biggest base) and drove up his negatives. His erratic campaign style and antics exposed him as a dangerous egoist and unstable, costing him lots pundits (important for driving the narrative) and moderate voters. His selection of Palin played some dividends in the short-term and solidified evangelicals behind the ticket, but ultimately cost him virtually everyone else; her selection now looks like the disaster many of us predicted early on.

In short, McCain proceeded to have not one, but several jump-the-shark moments. All this has thrown the race to its default state, and the McCain/Obama split now reflects the generic ballot split.

If this holds, we're on track to an Obama landslide. Maybe not a 1984, 1972 or 1964-style win, but a Bush/Dukakis-style win (comfortable popular vote win, massive electoral vote win), seems probable right now.

Obama is in a vastly better position at this stage than either Kerry or Gore were in the last two elections. His October position looks a lot more like Clinton's in 1992 and Bush I's in 1988.

I predict McCain won't crack 200 electoral votes. He'll lose all the major traditional swing states and between NC, IN and MO he'll probably lose 2 out of the 3. He may even lose one or two traditional red states in big upsets -- maybe Montana or Georgia or even Louisiana (where Obama has polled within 10 in several polls).

[Indiana_Dem]

1. Thank you for mentioning IN--We're trying really hard here on the ground! nt

[thereismore]

2. Shhhhhhhhhh! We all feel it, just don't let's jinx it! nt

[vi5]

3. Let's not get ahead of ourselves....

..look how quickly things turned around in Obama's favor, in such a short period of time. Less than 2 weeks ago things were ridiculously tight, Palin was being touted as more popular than either candidate, and things were not looking great.

When you think about it that way there are 2 and a half of that same length of time left to go. Things could turn around and back several times during that cycle. Anything. Any wrong word. Any gaffe. Any unexpected turn of events (economy, etc.).

Yes, I realize things are still on our side but it's not like we're 2 weeks out.

[darius15]

4. We won't win MT, GA, or LA unless we have a huge pop. vote win, but I do agree that

if Obama maintains this advantage through to Election night, we will get over 300 EV's, which is a pretty large victory.

[Brotherjohn]

5. GA & LA. Dare I dream! If he won those, he'd be winning half the South!

Because you know that would mean he'd also win VA, NC and FL (al states he currently leads in), and maybe even SC.

You're right, though. For that to happen, he'll have to have a HUGE popular vote advantage.