Here's what doesnt add up about the Mccain campaign...

[Essene]

1. While we all know snapshot polls are iffy, the overall trend in swing states is undeniably a train wreck for the Mccain campaign. This isnt even counting their inevitable problems with Nov turn-out and energy levels among the GOP.

2. Every time Mccain goes negative, Obama gets the boost and it supports Obama's message.

3. Independents do not seem to be moved by the smearing and partisan talking points (from either side). Which is a good deal why Obama did so well with the first debate, because he stayed serious, substantive and avoided the zinger wars.

4. Mccain's #1 problem is that he's Republican, trying to be all things to all Republicans... and attacking Obama will not solve that problem (at this point).



With that said, why on earth is the Mccain campaign sticking to the swift boating and wedge issue approach?

Are they banking on pulling out new dirt in the coming weeks? Those who WANT to hate Obama are loving all the meat thrown their way, but there's no evidence this stuff is sticking among independent and swing voters.

Is his campaign just a complete mess?

[Clovis Sangrail]

1. of course they're banking on new dirt in the coming weeks

and at this point they can completely make it up and the media will simply accept it

[cali]

5. opinions are hardening, and any new attack is just as likely to

be perceived as desperation. In addition, the MSM has surprised this cycle by not completely buying into repuke crap.

[RichGirl]

6. That's cynical.

The media may report McCain's dirt but they won't just accept it without proof. Look at all the stuff that has already been tossed at Obama. None of it has stuck. The freepers are calling Obama teflon.

[Labors of Hercules]

9. Actually, I have to say the media is finally starting to wise up...

repeating bullshit attacks is NOT improving their ratings. Watchers are looking for substance now.

[Essene]

13. Yes and the debate proved that without a doubt. The pundits are shell-shocked...

[yellowdogintexas]

16. yep they smell blood in the water too. Media appears to me to be sort of

circling in the water, making the early, weakening strikes but not going for the kill just yet. Face it Media wants to make this circus last as long as possible, and you KNOW they are all wanting to extend the drama as long as possible.

It has to look close they think. Well if it still looks close hopefully it inspires our base to vote.

[tekisui]

2. They have nothing else.

They are running the same old top-down campaign that gave Hillary her loss when up against the grassroots efforts of Obama.

It's too late now, it is all they have.

[Essene]

10. Let me play devil's advocate...

Mccain could be focused 100% on substance issues like painting Obama as big government and big spending.

He's not going to win independents with disgracefully transparent lying and smears, but they could have been painting obama as a pro-special interest, big government, big spender.

Obviously Mccain's saying this already, but it's not the core message.

[southpaw]

3. It's all they've got.

Sarah's charm faded fast. She's like the McCain campaign's shiny new bracelet that turned their wrist green.

McCain can't win on the issues, because he is, as you said, trying to please all the different strains of republicans and reach the undecideds. Can't do it.


All he's left with are attacks and wedge issues, but it doesn't appear that the voters are buying it.

He's looking like a cornered rat now, and starting to act like one.

The time is ripe for him to lose his temper on camera... he's come really close already.

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

4. he really, deep down, does not want it

it will be too much work, and he knows it

this way they can let the Dems take the heat for the shit coming down (recall Bush 41 started Somalia, but Clinton got the blame) and it positions the party better in 2012?

[Spider Jerusalem]

7. No. 4, addendum:

Trying to be all things to all Republicans whilst simultaneously trying not to be TOO Republican lest he alienate the independents and swing voters (the unpopularity of his party and its President do him no favours).

[wileedog]

12. That's been his problem from day 1

The downside of being a "Maverick" is that you tend to piss people off a lot.

You can't spend decades bucking your own party - even toying with running with Kerry in 2004 - and then expect them to turn out in droves for you when you need them.

You can't spend decades courting Independents and Moderates and then select an extreme right wing hack for VP who's sole draw is social issues which turn off those same groups.

You can't appeal to Environmentalists on one stump while yelling "Drill Baby Drill!" on another, especially not now in the You Tube age. Or fake economic knowledge in a financial crisis. Or pull the Bailout theatrics he did when he has to know most of the House Republicans can't stand him in the first place and certainly weren't going to jeapordize their seats voting for crappy legislation just to get him elected.

I think his fundamental mistake is that he didn't stay true to what got him there. If he stayed in the middle - like he has most of his career - and ran his campaign toward those all important swing voters he would have had a ton of appeal for some of those folks who rightly or wrongly simply don't think Obama has the experience. And while his base would have been lukewarm or oven moderately hostile, where else were they going to go?

[EstimatedProphet]

8. They don't know how else to run, is why.

They've been doing the Atwater campaign trick for so long and so consistently that they don't have any other ideas.

[Essene]

11. which is why i expected him to drop-kick Rick Davis and the Rove-kids last week.

[iceman66]

14. Little late for that now.

[Essene]

15. he had a short window of opportunity last weds-thurs to 100% reinvent his campaign, imo

he completely blew his chance.

i'd like to say that was his last chance. if he tries to drop rick davis and stir up campaign changes, he's gonna drop even further at this point. he could have pulled it off and reinforced his message if he had done it last week, tho.

[iceman66]

17. Hey, I'm not complaining!