The Daily Widget, Thur 10/2 – O-377, M-161 – Caution: Optimism Within (Not For Sourpusses)

phrigndumass

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Thu Oct-02-08 06:40 AM
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The Daily Widget, Thur 10/2 – O-377, M-161 – Caution: Optimism Within (Not For Sourpusses)

Edited on Thu Oct-02-08 07:17 AM by phrigndumass

1. ANALYSIS

What do you write about first when normally solid red states are polling as swing states, and typical swing states are polling as blue states? On a day when Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, Ohio, Texas and Virginia all move toward the left, which state do you pick to talk about first?

When your candidate is exploding in the national polls, skyrocketing in the popular vote and trading, and winning a majority of the electoral votes beyond the margin of error, what do you say to the naysayers? Do you keep this good news to yourself?

Hell No. We Are Winning This Race!

Whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, this is the year to volunteer and donate if you have the time and resources to do so. Besides that, Vote, and help GOTV! The Obama Campaign is showing You right now what’s possible on November 4 if you do these things.

Oh, and take a moment to enjoy the map, graphs and tables below. Nothing but good news today!

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

The Daily Widget is taking Friday off and will be back on Monday, October 6. THE MATH Weekly and the Saturday Morning Data Dump will be back the following weekend, October 11-12.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Arizona

Obama 38, McCain 45 (ASU/Cronkite, 9/27, +/- 3.1, 976 RV)
Connecticut

Obama 49, McCain 35 (Pulsar Research, 9/21, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Florida

Obama 51, McCain 43 (Quinnipiac University, 9/29, +/- 2.9, 836 LV)
Florida

Obama 46, McCain 42 (Suffolk University, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida

Obama 51, McCain 43, B1, N3, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 770 LV)
Florida

Obama 49, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 532 LV)
Iowa

Obama 55, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 53, McCain 41, B1, N2, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 849 LV)
Mississippi

Obama 44, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri

Obama 47, McCain 46, B2, N2, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 744 LV)
Nevada

Obama 49, McCain 44, B1, N4, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 684 LV)
Nevada

Obama 48, McCain 47 (Insider Advantage, 9/30, +/- 5.0, 437 LV)
Ohio

Obama 50, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 9/29, +/- 3.4, 825 LV)
Oklahoma

Obama 34, McCain 64 (Survey USA, 9/29, +/- 3.8, 656 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 48, McCain 43 (Franklin & Marshall, 9/26, +/- 3.5, 767 RV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 54, McCain 39 (Quinnipiac University, 9/29, +/- 3.4, 832 LV)
Tennessee

Obama 39, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 9/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Texas

Obama 43, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 9/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia

Obama 52, McCain 42, B2, N2, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 684 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 49, McCain 40 (Strategic Vision, 9/26, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

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