Poll: McCain's lead slipping in Arizona

[babsbunny]

http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/story.cfm?id=9577

September 30, 2008
Breaking News
Poll: McCain's lead slipping in Arizona

By Arizona Capitol Times staff

Sen. Barack Obama seems to be closing the gap in Arizona as the number of undecided voters shrinks, according to a statewide poll that shows Sen. John McCain holding a 7-point lead in his home state.

McCain led 45 percent to Obama's 38 percent among the 976 registered voters polled between Sept. 25 and Sept. 28 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET-TV. Independent candidate Ralph Nader received 1 percent and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney each received less than 1 percent of the vote. Sixteen percent were undecided.

Last month, the poll found that McCain led by 10 percentage points. At that time, McCain had 40 percent of the vote, while Obama drew 30 percent, Nader drew 2 percent, Barr had 1 percent and 27 percent were undecided.

[SoonerPride]

1. Has a candidate ever lost his home state?

I know Veeps have

:(

[davepc]

3. Gore didn't carry TN

[progressiveforever]

17. The last president to win without his home state was James Buchanan..

back in 1856, Buchanan lost Pennsylvania- his home- and still won the White House.

[Samantha]

29. He only lost by 70,000 and Tennessee was a "mini-Florida"

3 of the 21 complaints (lawsuits) reviewed and resolved by the Justice Department involved Tennessee. Some of the worst stories I heard were from those discriminated against in Tennessee. I think Rove manipulated this State to simply embarrass Al Gore.

Many of the mechanics used were those we saw again in Ohio in 2004. But one story, I will never forget is that of an African-American standing at the front of a very long line. He was made to go to the end of the line by a so-called election official. Obviously, there could not be caucasian people made to stand in line behind HIM.

If that had been me (caucasian from Tennessee) I would have told him to shoot me where I stood. I am from the Hell No I Won't Go generation and proud of it!

Sam

[vaberella]

4. What I love...?! I called it and Alaska will turn blue. n/t

[LiberalAndProud]

5. Yes.,

Al Gore OUCH!!!

[Clio the Leo]

6. article........

.... and as a Tennesseean I cant tell you how ashamed I was.

Most telling from this article......

" Vice President Al Gore is tortured by the fact that he lost Tennessee, say friends. After all, had he won his home state -- the state he represented all his years in Congress -- he would now be President-elect Gore, with or without Florida."


http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=17728

Oh how I would LOVE for Barack to bring us back home to the Democratic party next month!

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Why did Gore lose Tennessee?

I recall it wasn't even really close, right? I mean close, but not extremely tight like Florida.

[Clio the Leo]

14. because this state is full of idiots.......

... you know, those stupid values voters who thought the electric chair lovin' DUI convict with no foreign policy experience was a better alternative to the dude who was VP when that evil Bill Clinton "disgraced the Oval Office" by having sex in it.

Why did they waste valuable time and money making fun of Michelle? Again, they're idiots.

I'm tellin' y'all inbreeding is a bad thing.

In all seriousness ...... in addition to what I said above, which is true, "value voters" simply liked Bush better as a person ..... there was a feeling among those living in East and West TN (the state is divide into thirds, both geographically and mentally) that Gore was not really a hometown kid. To their credit, he'd grown up in DC because his father was the LEGENDARY Al Gore Sr. who was our Senator FOREVER (and one of two desenting votes on the Southern Manifesto, love you Big Al!!!!)

But Gore Jr. was seen as a Washington elitist .... not really in touch with down home TN .... Bush on the other hand seemed to more represent the ideals of bubba and mrs. bubba.

"Clinton commits adultery in the Oval Office" + "Gore is a snob" + "Bush is a good old boy" = "Gore loses his home state."

[Drunken Irishman]

19. Is that why they liked Clinton?

His poor background in the south helped him, no doubt, right?

Or was Gore not tainted yet by the time 1992 and 1996 rolled around?

[Clio the Leo]

20. well yes ..........

Clinton is def. a good old boy ........ he's just a SMART one who knew how to do his job. But for the same reason I cant seem to stay mad at him for anything that's gone on the last year .... he's just a likeable guy. And yes, that helped get him in the White House. I was thinking today about how intelligent he is, yet he talks like he should be working at the local Ford dealership. (that's not a slam, it's an endearing quality.)

But the affair was a MAJOR factor ........ I'm sure it's true across the country, but Bibe Belt southerners will never forgive Clinton for the affair and poor Al got the blame for it. Despite all of the GOOD he did, Clinton will always be seen as a bad president because of Lewinsky gate.

During 92 and 96, Gore was just viewed as Clinton's stiff VP candidate. He was senator for so long not because people LIKED him, but because he was a democrat .... and back then, that's how folks voted. Yellow dogs and all.

[Clio the Leo]

22. and just as an aside.......

Southerners never really like Hillary ..... while she was First Lady I mean. Now Laura, they LOVE her ..... she's quiet and "knows her place." Hillary's attempt to reform health care was seen as her overstepping her bounds "we didn't vote for her, we voted for her husband."

And that was one of the deciding factors in my deciscion to vote for Obama in the primaries. I will never be convinced that Hillary stood a chance of winning any southern states (not counting FL.) She's viewed as too brash hard edged.

Despite the obvious ethnic history we have here, Obama had one thing in his favor that Hillary doesn't have that helps him in the south ...... he's a man.

[Clio the Leo]

2. If Gore can lose TN ........ ANYTHING can happen.......

...... "Anything can happen child, anything can be."

[EV_Ares]

7. List of major-party United States presidential candidates who lost their home state

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major-party_United_States_presidential_candidates_who_lost_their_home_state

[davepc]

11. Wikipedia amazes me every day

[BrokenSocialScene]

9. McCain wont lose AZ

I mean you would see TX and GA go before AZ. We dont need that state and there's no use in spending inordinate amounts of resources there.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Right.

Arizona only goes if it's a 40-state landslide and I don't expect that.

[progressiveforever]

15. But I'd like to see him have to campaign there.

Make it a toss-up, it might bring on the cold sweat.

[SwampG8r]

28. i think making mccain fight for his own turf is worth

the cost
gotta be frustrating as hell to him!

[AZBlue]

10. It can really happen.

[boppers]

13. Go AZ!

(Former resident here, I'm glad we're going blue...)

[yellowdogintexas]

21. doing my best to get 2 more Obama voters registered out there before Oct 5

my daughter and her BF

[darius15]

16. Why does this pollster have so many undecideds?

If 1 in 6 voters remain undecided in their "poll", they should really consider asking better follow up questions to get some more answers.

[boppers]

26. Im guessing that there are so many because both campaigns assumed the outcome.

Thus, there hasn't been a lot of outreach to LIV's.

[Imagevision]

18. It is the second time Mccain is losing AZ. to Obama - gonna get worse...

[jules1962]

24. gotta agree w/clio the leo

There are way to many idiots in Tennessee that vote guns-God-gays. I have seen a change here in East Tenn. lately though. I have seen several Obama/Biden bumperstickers on cars and only 2 McCain/Palin. To beat all, this is in the Tri-Cities. I know that most people where I work are saying that they are voting dem this time. I hope that turns out to be true.
I was so angry that Tn didn't carry Gore in 2000. I would love for Obama to be able to take Az. so we could say the same about him. Justice. I does give me hope that we have a Democratic Governor and he is out campaigning in other states for Obama. I think he feels that this state is useless. I concur.

[Clio the Leo]

25. yep! Thanks Gov. Bredesen!!!! NT

[ObamaKerryDem]

23. Woo! Let's go, Arizona!!1 :D

Now I'm realistic and so I'm not necessarily COUNTING on putting it in the Obama column on Election Night, but just to know the campaign is even alive in a state the opponent has represented for longer than I've even been alive is exciting to say the very least. :) And I intend to continue to do whatever I can to help out here. If we can keep it close, I'll be happy. And if we can pull off an upset like that, I will be fuckin' ESTATIC. :D I'll have not been so proud of my state since the '06 election, when we voted down that bullshit 'marriage ammendment' (which I hope we do again this year)..

[krkaufman]

27. Not bad, with 16% still undecided. And that can't bode well for McCain ...

... since he's a known quantity in the state. What's McCain's favorability rating in AZ? (Wondering if he's below 50%)

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

30. AZ will be a future part of the new Democratic coalition

as the GOP is marginalized to a regional southern party

we would have had them this year had it not been McCain's home state. that's the only reason for the holdout.

The GOP is left with the deep south and a few sparsely populated states, while the Dems take the coasts, the midwest and southwest

also, it's worth noting that polls have shown AZ's Democratic governor, Janet Napaolitano, would beat McLame in a race for Senate next time round