"Explaining is losing" - common campaign axiom
SIREN – Quinnipiac University – “Obama Over 50 Percent In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Find 00 Debate, Palin's Fade, Economy Put Democrat On Top. … No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College.”
FLORIDA: Obama 51 – McCain 43 post-debate
OHIO: Obama 50 – McCain 42 post-debate
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54 – McCain 39 post-debate
McCain pushback on Florida polls: “Our polling shows us up 7. My guess is they over sampled blacks and under sampled Cubans.
McCain pushback on Q-polls: “These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they’re true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2 percent, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country? These states are bellwethers because they closely mirror national demographics. Given the volume of campaigning in those states, we expect that they are close to the national track – if not tighter.”
Note Quinnipiac has an excellent reputation especially in
edited to add link
http://www.politico.com/playbook/1008/playbook449.htmlhttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218and details from Quinnipiac
Florida
Even before Friday's debate, Florida voters had shifted from 50 - 43 percent for McCain in a September 11 Quinnipiac University poll to 49 - 43 percent for Obama.
Looking at post-debate numbers, Florida men likely voters back McCain 50 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 57 - 37 percent. McCain leads 50 - 45 percent edge among white voters.
Independent voters back Obama 52 - 40 percent, compared to 50 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.
Among the 79 percent of Florida voters who say they watched the debate, 49 percent said Obama did better, with 34 percent saying McCain won.
By a 58 - 33 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 - 39 percent for McCain.
Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11. Democratic running mate Joe Biden has a 47 - 27 percent favorability, up from 38 - 28 percent.
The economy is the most important issue in the election, 60 percent of Florida voters say, and voters post-debate trust Obama more than McCain 53 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 - 40 percent pre-debate.
Voters trust McCain more than Obama 52 - 41 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 42 percent pre-debate.
Post debate, voters say 53 - 20 percent that Obama's role in trying to solve the economic crisis has been helpful more than harmful, compared to 45 - 31 percent for McCain.
Florida voters oppose 42 - 36 percent the $700 billion plan to rescue the economy.
"During the past three weeks, Florida voters lost their faith in Sen. McCain. His net favorability dropped in half and Sen. Obama's almost doubled over the same period. One look at independents shows the massive change. Three weeks ago, McCain had a seven-point edge among Florida independents. Today, Obama leads among that group by 12 points," Brown said.
Ohio
Post-debate, Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among Ohio women and ties McCain 46 - 46 percent among men. Independent voters go 46 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain, compared to 47 - 43 percent for McCain September 11.
The 64 percent of voters who watched the debate say Obama did better 49 - 33 percent.
Obama gets a 54 - 32 percent favorability in Ohio, with 49 - 40 percent for McCain.
Palin's favorability is split 35 - 35 percent, compared to 41 - 22 percent last time.
Biden's favorability is 38 - 27 percent, compared to 36 - 22 percent last time.
For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, and post-debate voters trust Obama more than McCain 50 - 39 percent to handle this issue, compared to 49 - 39 percent pre-debate.
Voters trust McCain more, 53 - 38 percent to handle foreign policy, compared to 51 - 39 percent pre-debate.
After the debate, voters say 50 - 23 percent that Obama's efforts on the economic crisis have been helpful more than harmful, compared to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.