HOLY COW! NEW POLLS: Obama +8 in FL, Obama +8 in OH, Obama +15 in PA!

[jefferson_dem]

From Quinnipiac University poll:

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 43

OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 42

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54, McCain 39

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/poll-obama-edges-out-mccain-in-battlegrounds/

Polls: More see Obama as helpful on economy
By The Associated Press – 19 minutes ago

THE POLL: Quinnipiac University poll, presidential race in Florida among likely voters. (The state has 27 electoral votes.)

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 51 percent, John McCain 43 percent.

OF INTEREST: The post-debate poll was similar to the presidential preferences taken right before the debate. Just over half of voters responding after the debate said Obama has been more helpful than harmful in solving the economic crisis, compared with 45 percent who said so of McCain. Almost eight in 10 Floridians said they watched the presidential matchup. Almost half said Obama did better, compared with 34 percent who picked McCain.

DETAILS: Conducted one poll Sept. 22-26, telephone interviews with 1,161 likely voters in Florida. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Conducted second poll Sept. 27-29, telephone interviews with 836 likely voters in Florida. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

MORE: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml

___

THE POLL: Quinnipiac University poll, presidential race in Ohio among likely voters. (The state has 20 electoral votes.)

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 50 percent, John McCain 42 percent.

OF INTEREST: Voters' preferences for the candidates after the debate were similar to those expressed in a survey before the debate. Half of those responding after the debate said Obama's efforts to solve the economic crisis have been helpful; 43 percent said so of McCain. Those who saw the presidential matchup said the Democrat did better than McCain — 49 percent to 33 percent.

DETAILS: Conducted one poll Sept. 22-26, telephone interviews with 1,203 likely voters in Ohio. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Conducted second poll Sept. 27-29, telephone interviews with 825 likely voters in Ohio. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

MORE: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml

___

THE POLL: Quinnipiac University poll, presidential race in Pennsylvania among likely voters. (The state has 21 electoral votes.)

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 54 percent, John McCain 39 percent.

OF INTEREST: Obama saw a slight boost in support after the debate. Thirty-five percent of voters said McCain's efforts in solving the economic crisis have been harmful, while only 15 percent say that about Obama's role. Obama has made inroads with independent voters, who were almost split between the candidates in the poll's Sept. 11 results. The Democrat is leading in post-debate support from independents by about 30 percentage points.

DETAILS: Conducted one poll Sept. 22-26, telephone interviews with 1,138 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Conducted second poll Sept. 27-29, telephone interviews with 832 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

MORE: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8WvoRnUTs6fEo8Os3k4YlshdOvQD93HL9N81

[NJGeek]

1. wow; now they can start using the "the american people agree with us "line

almost there folks, keeping fingers crossed

[Lochloosa]

5. "the american people agree with us "

About fucking time.

[tishaLA]

2. I LOVE how Halperin says Obama "Edges Out" McCain

Jesus. Since when is 14 points "edging out"?

[Marsala]

6. I know! "Obama Blows The Hell Out Of McCain In Battlegrounds" would be much more accurate

Stupid horse race narrative. In fairness, these polls are probably a trifle on the optimistic side, but still!

[elleng]

9. Been ignoring

halperin lately, whenever possible.

Quinnipiac, that's another story!

[aaaaaa5a]

3. I can't believe it!!!!

YES!

[DCBob]

4. OMG!! I was expecting something good this week but this is incredible!

:bounce:

[elleng]

7. Good Morning, OH FL PA!!!

.

[PCIntern]

8. Holy s--t!

(It's a religious holiday so I shouldn't curse!)

[JI7]

10. does that mean people aren't falling for the bs ?

i admit that i always worry when i hear them start with the crap again like on Larry King last night some idiot was on trying to make Palin out to be a victim and then brought up how the eastern elites don't like her and all the other crap they always throw out.

after what happened so far i do think anyone who supports McCain is a moron or racist.

[harun]

47. I think they are seeing the manifestation of the BS in the economy

It's all fun and games until someone sees banks failing.

[nyc 4 Biden]

51. I prefer to call the non-racist McCain supporters...

"The Uninformed."

It is plausible that if a regular citizen just happened to watch only the MSM, the truth wouldn't be as available to them. Sometimes it takes longer for some to tell what's really going on.

In our society the truth has high barriers to entry, and that is no accident.

[aaaaaa5a]

11. To those who say the polls is optimistic...

I will point to Quinnipiac's good record on predicting outcomes during the Presidential Primaries. (I believe they were near the top with Survey USA)


Plus, look at the LARGE SAMPLE SIZES in every poll. Their polling was done BEFORE AND AFTER the debate, so it's not just a one or two day trend.


Of course, I haven't read the cross tabs yet... but the early indications are GOOD!

[Bonn1997]

12. Will these leads last?

Or if Congress passes some kind of bailout and stock market goes up about 1000 points between now and Nov 4, will these states return to being within the margin of error? I love having these nice leads but the fact that they didn't happen until the economy totally crashed worries me a little.

[Cosmocat]

17. The current narrative is going to run at least ...

though this week, which is good ... Runs the clock down to about 31 days.

Going into next week, IF a bill is passed and the market stabilizes, then it will tamper things, but the residual of this narrative will still be there unless something big shakes it up ... After that, it will die off as long as the markets stabilize and no more big buyouts/defaults occur.

Then what?

THAT is the question, what narrative starts to build next week. Default at this point is Palin, cause she is a trainwreck. But, as we post right now, we don't know what narrative the media will start driving next week. Could go either way. Likely against BO in some way, them twisting something Biden says or something ...

But, trending up now is great at the state level, they lag behind the national polls, so they will either keep trending up a bit or stabilize, and will be hard to break back toward McCain in enough time for the election.

Either A LOT of low level grinding at BO is going to start next week OR something REAL big is going to have to happen.

Keep your fingers crossed that there are no domestic terror attacks or a massive terror attack abroad.

[sickinohio]

13. Please say it's so,

PLEASE!! I wish today was election day!!

[Bonn1997]

15. So do I! So do I! (nt)

[Kahuna]

14. After tomorrow night's debate we can put a nail in McQueeg and Gidget's coffin.

:bounce:

[DCBob]

16. Florida will flip to blue today on RCP for first time ever!!

RCP Average 09/21 - 09/29 -- 47.8 46.4 Obama +1.4

Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 836 LV 51 43 Obama +8
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 941 LV 49 46 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 47 48 McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 45 48 McCain +3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

[DCBob]

18. Ohio will also flip to blue today on RCP EC map -- first time in months

RCP Average 09/27 - 09/29 -- 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0

SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 50 42 Obama +8
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 47 45 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 48 McCain +1

[tekisui]

19. Last week I said, Obama is getting ready to bust this thing open.

Say goodnight, gramps!

GO OBAMA!!!:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[endthewar]

20. BOOYAH!

:bounce: :toast: :party: :dunce: :hug: :pals: :headbang: :yourock: :woohoo: :applause: :bounce:

[Waiting For Everyman]

21. Wow.

If it's b/c people are seeing through McC's b.s., then it will hold. Once people know they've been conned, they don't reconsider that. Obama will need a sizable lead to overcome the tampering, so I'm real glad to see this.

[Glimmer of Hope]

22. Oh boy. Everything is falling into place the way it should. It is hard to believe.

[Teaser]

23. Those polls are pure sex

.

[Fluffdaddy]

24. No way I believe the FLORIDA poll O 51 vs M 43......NO WAY

The OHIO poll reads a bit high also..........................but I can live with that



How reliable is the Quinnipiac University polling?

Anyone?

[WinkyDink]

26. VERY reliable.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

32. Quinnipiac is one of the more reliable, non-partisan polling organizations out there.

I trust their work, whether it's favorable to our side or not.

[WinkyDink]

25. PA~~~~What I've been SAYIN', peeps!!

[alcibiades_mystery]

39. Me too

I lived in Central PA for years. I know many moderate GOP voters there who are just fed up. In 2004, I knew Bush was going to win because my wife's entire office was enthusiastic for Bush, and just hated Kerry. It was like a bellweather. This time, most of those people are going for Obama. PA's been out of play since the outset. Obama will win PA by 6-8%.

[phrigndumass]

27. I'd pick my jaw up off the floor, but I've been dragging it around all week :o

It'll end up back on the floor so I'll leave it there, lol

TERRIFIC! :woohoo:

[barack the house]

28. Wow finally people are giving him a chance. We needed this 2 year election, he was bound to win >

folks over in the end. Glory days.:)


:woohoo:

[d_b]

29. dizzam

how the F...?

I'll take it!

[DemsUnited]

30. As much as I love these numbers, expecially from such a reputable pollster, I ain't celebrating yet!

Time to work even harder, send more money, make more phone calls, knock on more doors!!!

Not taking ANYTHING for granted. These numbers will freak the Republicans out. They will go intensely negative. They will step up push polling. They will pull out the stops on dirty tricks. They will attempt to steal it like they've done before.

Smile, but fight even harder!

[Fluffdaddy]

31. I agree with you on all accounts. This will end-up being year 2000 close

[workinclasszero]

33. Can you say....LANDSLIDE??

DEMOCRATIC landslide, with President Obama leading America back to sanity!!!!:bounce::woohoo:

[lolamio]

34. Holy cow. I am afraid to believe those numbers, but I sure do like them!!! Let's keep working!

[underpants]

35. Obama has gone populist on his stump speech-it still sells

and it seems new and refreshing because all of the DC crowd has long abondoned it (except for the conservative populists :eyes: )

[Curtland1015]

36. Damn good news!

[alcibiades_mystery]

37. While these seem high, I think the internals are probably close to this

+6 in FL, +4 in OH, +9 in PA is my guess.

[Thrill]

38. They won't mention these on MSM. Not a chance

[quantass]

42. 100% AGREED! No Chance!

[quantass]

48. 100% AGREED! No Chance!

[faithfulcitizen]

40. Thank goodness early voting is starting NOW!

Please God let this lead only grow.

[voteearlyvoteoften]

41. October Surprise

Surprise!!!! We are gaining ground in Florida...the redemption state. Don't get complacent, the reds have a lot of power in high places. I will be attending poll watcher training tonight and getting back on the virtual phone bank. Please do your part and we will purge our country of the entitled ones.

[Schulzz]

43. Yes, but why can't he close the deal!

PA is still a toss-up! :sarcasm:

[leftist.]

44. And why can't he reach disaffected Clinton supporters?

WHY?

Giuliani is still ahead in FL by two points, right Sean Hannity???

[Barack_America]

45. "Likely voters".

That's the amazing thing here. All summer Obama would be ahead in the "registered voter" polls, but trailed McCain among "likely voters". Earlier this month, Obama was down 10 to McCain among likely voters, nationally.

So yeah, these polls are a total :wow:

[Robbins]

46. Polls

When you have a 6 or more lead Nationally you can get state numbers like this.

The Economy,Mccain's Stunts,and the Debate are all helping Obama.If Obama wins both Florida and
Ohio It Is done for Mccain.If He leads like this In PA things are also very good In Michigan.

This election could end up as a cross between 1996,and 1980 with a popular lead of a few points with
over 300 Electoral votes but also bringing new Congressmen and Senators too.

[Schulzz]

49. The Hotline poll had him leading by 10 in battlegrounds.

That makes these polls a bit more believeable.

[palintology]

50. I hope they remain the same when ...

Israel starts to attack Iran on October 28.

[SIMPLYB1980]

52. Wow! Now the question is are the talking heads on TV going to cover this?