GW/Battleground Tracking... WTF?

[LuckyTheDog]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

WTF is it about that poll that makes it different from all the rest? Should we worry?

[usregimechange]

1. Don't know but thought the same thing

[washingdem]

2. As a GW grad I'm ashamed. Their poll consistently shows McCain leading.

[MadBadger]

3. Their party ID is only +2 for Dems

[msallied]

4. 538 just posted something on this...

Apparently they don't weight the poll for age.

[TwilightGardener]

5. I've never even heard of them until recently.

[still_one]

8. Same here, but using the other polls as a control, I would say they are probably off

[Sodan]

6. Forget polls - check out the prediction markets look here:

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5995&page=0

If you're not familar with this.

Much much more accurate than polls.

[blondeatlast]

9. Interesting, but it seems to be strictly Australian. Am I missing something? nt

[Sodan]

10. Also American - look at INTRADE -

http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

WOW... hadn't looked at it since yesterday.

(I dare not say this but here I go - Landslide!!)

No jinxing intended - no hybris or anything!!

[blondeatlast]

12. Very interesting results on the chance of recession--amd I reading it right?

traders are NOT expecting a recession this year?

[Sodan]

14. Yes, they expect it next year. Not that much money in that market yet.

[VolcanoJen]

7. Nate and the guys at 538 are all over it

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html

The poll is not weighted by age, and they polled TWICE as many 65+ voters as 18-34 voters. No wonder it heavily favors McCain.

[RichGirl]

11. FOX poll is questionable to me.

Maybe they want us to feel so confident that we let up on working for the Obama campaign.

[Schulzz]

13. Obama up 48-46 now - they finally figured that they "might" be an outlier. nt

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_093008_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

[Sodan]

16. LOL... last time I looked at the freeper site they were clinging to that one

[amborin]

15. Battle Ground Ohio:

<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=asDkDgE1sS1A&refer=politics>


dems need a 10% margin to override racism and smears

[Democat]

17. Battleground spelled backwards is?

Vote McCain!

[ps1074]

18. They oversample the 60+ voters

It oversamples the 60+ voters by 10% and undersamples the 18-30 group by 10% It was explained by Nate Silver on 538.