The Republican Party is Disintegrating

[grantcart]

Today the House Republicans sold one of their last most reliable core constituencies down the river, the small business owner.

We know that if business's get big they have tremendous resources they can call on to map out a survival strategy, but the people that are most vulnerable are the small and medium sized businesses that are typically built on owner sweat equity and are significantly under capitalized. Get really big and you are 'too big too fail'.

Small businesses survive on guts and improbability. If the owners understood how likely it was that their chosen business was likely to survive, or how much capital they really need they would never open their doors. Brimming with insatiable American optimism they keep coming like salmon jumping up the falls in an impossible challenge to physics. They do make it. Largely on personal credit cards they survive expand and eventually end up at their neighborhood bank where they are always pushing the acceptable ratios of what a business should do.

They take their orders down to the bank and pack the credit and borrow against future deliveries, they extend their payables and massage their receivables. They use informal money markets known as 'uncles, in-laws and buddies'.

When credit gets tight they exist on fumes and when credit freezes they will be wiped off the face of the economy by the tens of thousands.

They are largely Republicans because they hear from the talk shows that the party has their back and is fighting for them.

Today the House Republicans turned their back on the little guy. Today's vote wasn't for Wall Street it was to get enough liquidity so that the poor slob that is working 12 hours a day to keep his business going in defiance of the known ratios of working capital to established assets. Just like that river that holds the hard fought aqua ladder for that struggling salmon the Republican party turned off the spigot and dried up the stream. And hundreds of thousands of struggling small and medium sized businesses with millions of employees go to bed tonight wondering what money they can use to pay their payroll and keep fighting. Their credit line is approved but the banks won't have any money to put in their account.

It is the beginning of a long dark winter for a party that was born in taking hard decisions that kept a divided Union together. The party of Lincoln has become a party of Tories, Whigs and Limbaughs - a party of entrenched interests, neo cons, and those committed to raping the country for their own self interest.


A comparison to 1964

Goldwater led the party to its greatest defeat but still gave the party a unifying philosophy that could serve as the foundation for an eventual rebound. The improbable Ronald Reagan, an actor of little significance, would take Goldwater's basic philosophy and incarnate it with a folksy smile and human stories and build a resurgent party built on a nostalgia for a simpler time with simple problems handled by guys that walked around like Gary Cooper in high noon. Of course we were against that philosophy but at least it had a point. The reason of existence for the Republican Party is disintegrating and the conflicting groups that populate it are drifting apart.

This time the party is splitting apart having nominated a candidate that they don't really like and who is campaigning on being against the incompetence of his own party. The disparate and barely overlapping groups that consist of the Republican Party; the religious right, the neo-cons, the national security real world traditionalists, the established upper class, the philosophical Republicans and the small and medium sized business person are slowly getting off the boat.

McCain's defeat will not, like 1964, leave behind any unified philosophy that the different parts can come to. Ironically the appointment of Palin will give the demoralized religious right the illusion that they still are in the center of the party and her brief moment of success will give the Huckabee wing motivation to go all in to grab power. Romney is counting the days before he can come in and say, "I told you so" and offer up his messianic service to save a sinking corpse. Each wing will try and take early leadership so that they can take over for the 2012 election.

The philosophy that has pulled them together however is now gone. And in my mind the most endearing group, the ones that I have always admired the most wished the Democratic Party would adopt, the little guy fighting for his farm or for his business was stabbed in the back today and told they are nothing more than a pawn in an ideological war and that they are cannon fodder for a battle that supports religious whack jobs that believe the end times could in fact be coming up after the next World Wide Wrestling World Championship.

All the Republican Party is left with is nostalgia and a lot of dead salmon.

[abumbyanyothername]

1. A quote from 1994

"The way to destroy the Republican party is to elect it." abumbyanyothername.

[msallied]

8. That's an awesome quote!

:thumbsup:

[endthewar]

30. Bwahahahaha!

:rofl:

[uponit7771]

62. +1

[Eric J in MN]

2. There are government programs to make loans to small businesses.

Those could have been expanded if the question is how to help small businesses.

We shouldn't devote $700 billion to buying the worst products on Wall Street to prop up Wall Street firms (not even on the theory that it will indirectly help small businesses.)

[PaddyBlueEyes]

5. and in the mean time?

Those of us with 401K's and 403C's watch our retirement security disappear. Major corporations like Caterpillar dont get the payroll met, due to lack of lending. What are you going to tell the CAT workers when they get laid off?

[msallied]

9. We can't fix the cause of this problem until we can steady the people most affected by it.

If we steady the market we can put the regulations back and place and start to rebuild.

[grantcart]

10. This is completely ridiculous

These businesses are approved for credit they don't need more programs there is no cash flowing through the credit institutions.

We just saw 1.2 trillion dollars evaporate. Last week WaMu depositors finalized a $ 50 billion run on the bank.


Small business plans that you are talking about guarantee loans in the billions a year and we are talking about trillions needed by the business's every week.

BTW no government programs make loans to small businesses none. They guarantee loans that the banks make. But the banks don't have the cash to fund already approved lines of credit including those that are offered by the bank whether they are guaranteed by the government or not.

This is not about proping up Wall Street its about keeping the system liquid so that businesses that have nothing to do witht he mortgage industry are not wiped away by the bad acts of the Finance wing of Wall Street.

[msallied]

16. Also, with all of that wealth disappearing, it means less revenue for the government.

Less revenue for the government means more taxes. This mess is like a really nasty virus. It affects so many things.

[grantcart]

18. Yes every state, county, city and school district will now face dramatically

reduced revenues in a time of expanding costs.

It is a great tragedy about to be made much bigger.

[Better Today]

24. So you pay those taxes how? Most of ours come from property and sales tax, they aren't going down.

I suppose as people default on their homes the property tax revenue will dwindle; but then put something solid in the bill to save those homeowners/mortgages; not just fat cats.

[grantcart]

28. Are you kidding of course they are going down

Property prices are deflating and the lack of angreement today will continue the plunge. It is a major reason that CA is experiencing a $ 15 billion short fall.

When those small and medium sized businesses no longer operate they will no longer collect sales taxes for the state.


The plummeting of wall street reduces dividend income and state income taxes.



Those living off their 401K just experienced a 5% loss of assets in one day and will spend less and further reduce sales taxes.

[Better Today]

31. Uhm, I've never seen, even during other home price depressions,

home values reduced. I have seen tax rates reduced while simultaneously raising the value. But NEVER and I do mean NEVER have I seen a reduction in property taxes. I've owned homes since 1980.

[abumbyanyothername]

36. I've owned homes since 1980

I got news for you.

You have never seen a credit contraction the likes of which is barreling down the pike at you now.

I'm pretty sure that it's already underway.

The only thing that will stop it is when business and the economy in general gets so bad that the demand for credit falls below the supply.

By that time, a lot of paper wealth will be destroyed. And a lot of workers will be displaced.

Me . . . a formerly high paid credit markets professional included.

[Virginia Dare]

70. It's happening here in Northern Virginia..

my county is in a serious financial crush because of it, as our the other local jurisdictions here and in Maryland.

[joeglow3]

74. Sure, in states like California

Where the values of homes are WAAAY below their market values. Here, your assessed value is required to be 92-100% of FMV. Thus, a 20% decrease in the value of homes DOES decrease the assessed value for property taxes.

[Bluenorthwest]

65. In California

The property tax on your home does not adjust with the current market, it stays where it was when you bought it. So, in fact, the deflating prices do not deflate the amount of property tax owed. If people can not pay it, that is another issue. But the CA shortfall is not because property values went down and property taxes followed. The taxes stayed the same. Prop 13.

[grantcart]

96. you are correct that it does not go down or up

but the base price for the new home sales will be substantially lower.

Also the slowing of housing activity is having a major impact on state revenues.

[Eric J in MN]

27. When the stock market goes down, the money doesn't evaporate.

The money mostly goes into money-market accounts.

[abumbyanyothername]

37. People are not using Money Market Accounts anymore

because they don't want to be exposed to investment grade credits going BK overnight -- or over the weekend at least (LEH).

400 Billion has been pulled from MMAs since the LEH bk.

[grantcart]

40. you need to take a course in economics

the total Gross National Product of a country includes all of its assets.

The supply of money represents only a small percentage of the assets in a country.

In fact cash represents only a small percent of the money supply




Money supply data is recorded and published in order to monitor the growth of the money supply. Public- and private-sector analysts have long monitored this growth because of the effects that it is believed to have on real economic activity and on the price level.<4> The money supply is considered an important instrument for controlling inflation by those economists who say that growth in money supply will only lead to inflation if money demand is stable.<5>



Because (in principle) money is anything that can be used in settlement of a debt, there are varying measures of money supply. Since most modern economic systems are regulated by governments through monetary policy, the supply of money is broken down into types of money based on how much of an effect monetary policy can have on that type of money. Narrow money is the type of money that is more easily affected by monetary policy whereas broad money is more difficult to affect through monetary policy.<5> Narrow money exists in smaller quantities while broad money exists in much larger quantities. Each type of money can be classified by placing it along a spectrum between narrow and broad money. The different types of money are typically classified as Ms. The number of Ms usually range from M0 (narrowest) to M3 (broadest) but which Ms are actually used depends on the system. The typical layout for each of the Ms is as follows:

M0: Physical currency. A measure of the money supply which combines any liquid or cash assets held within a central bank and the amount of physical currency circulating in the economy. M0 is the most liquid measure of the money supply. It only includes cash or assets that could quickly be converted into currency.<6>
M1: Physical currency circulating in the economy + demand deposits (i.e. checking account deposits). This is a measure used by economists trying to quantify the amount of money in circulation. M1 is a very liquid measure of the money supply, as it only contains cash and assets that can also be used for payments.<7>
M2: M1 + time deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds. M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists also use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions. M2 contains cash and assets that can quickly be converted to currency.<8> M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.<9>
M3: M2 + large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, along with other larger liquid assets. This is the broadest measure of money commonly used and is used by economists to estimate the entire supply of money within

[sfwriter]

3. OK,, Brilliant... EOM

[grantcart]

50. thank you

[elfin]

4. May they jettison the radical Fundies once and for all

and return to a more sensible "center" to preach ACCOUNTABLE governance.

Oh, right, that is now the Dems.

Too bad, they are toast.

[msallied]

13. It's the Dems for now.

In a couple more decades, the pendulum will swing. Because power corrupts. It always does. And if the pendulum doesn't swing, we're in a dictatorship. The idea is not very appealing to me.

[grantcart]

15. their radical fundies are their ground army

it provides a great deal of their financing and almost all of their GOTV effort. Without it the party would fail completely in places like Oklahoma or North Dakota.

[msallied]

19. They can go back into hiding like they were before the 2000 election.

It was Karl Rove who courted a good deal of those weirdos. Once the more rational wing of the GOP reconstitutes itself (and we can only hope it's THAT wing that does), then the fundies will have no one to vote for again, and they can continue to stay home like they did before. I want to see more Republicans who care about personal freedoms again rather than just fiscal ones.

[hogwyld]

51. Not me

I'd rather the rethuglican party just go away entirely. Fool me once...

[Raksha]

54. I don't want to see any more Republicans, period!

I've been looking forward to the extinction of the Republican party for a long, long time. Looks like they are finally self-destructing.

[w4rma]

58. The "rational" wing of the GOP is the greedy wing. At least the fundies try to be ethical. (nt)

[Virginia Dare]

73. Is that why they lied and said that the reason why they voted "no"

was because Speaker Pelosi made a partisan speech? Please, these people have no ethics.

[w4rma]

75. That is the Republican leadership which is the "greedy" wing and puts on an act for the fundies.(nt)

[Virginia Dare]

76. Now we're defending right wing fundies WTF????...n/t

[w4rma]

80. Right wing fundies are naive and easily manipulated. Their ethics are whacked and unworkable but at

least they try to follow an ethical plan. The big business wing of the GOP is evil to the core and strings along these useful fools.

No. I would say, without a doubt, that I am not defending either wing of the Republican Party.

[ClarkUSA]

6. Perhaps now small business owners will stop voting against their own economic interests.

And now we understand why Ed Rollins, Huckabee's former campaign manager, has been doing his not-so-subtle best to
skewer Palin.

To add to the constituency which will now turn on the GOP, there's Wall Street itself... the laid-off employees, their families,
and all those loyal RNC fatcat contributors must be furious at being left out to dry by their free-market soulmates in Congress.

So much for any more donations to Republicans in this cycle.

[grantcart]

17. I wish we had a couple of leaders who could articulate what you are saying

People in the mold of Wes Clarke that does so well articulating our national security profile.

[spag68]

20. Lost repubs

I would endure pain, of most any sort loss of hair or some sickness to see NY get rid of Peter King. A most despicable rat turd of a man.

[msallied]

7. I give to you a standing ovation, Grantcart.

But give it time... they are scattered to the wind for now, but they will rebuild. They will have their own Obama eventually who will rise from the ashes and unite them. Politics is cyclical like that.

[grantcart]

14. No they might not be able to rebuild because instead of nominating a Goldwater type

they went for McCain. There is no integrating philosophy to tie them together. If the Libertarian Party could get the financing of Ron Paul and a couple of charismatic leaders there is every reason to believe that they could eclipse the Republican Party. Atleast the Libertarian Party has an integrated philosophy that all of its members can agree upon.

[msallied]

21. Yes, and it by and large excludes the philosophy of religious fundamentalists.

The Democratic Party saw itself splintered in a similar way in the 1948 election, didn't it? The battle between the old south segregationist Democrats and the rest of them. We still managed to win that election, at least, but it wasn't easy. The GOP appears to be in far worse shape. As someone on the board said in another thread, they are completely without a rudder. They went for McCain in part because I think he was really the only one among them whose reputation as a "Maverick" was still a brand on the public's consciousness, even though that eventually proved to be a bunch of horseshit. Apparently disagreeing with Bush once or twice to these dolts constitutes a real rebel. What a bunch of stupid fascists.

[grantcart]

22. but this time we got the man who has the strength of FDR and the charisma of JFK

(thanks for the standing O btw lol)

[msallied]

23. Even if I only get a sliver of what each of those generations felt about those respective leaders

I will feel very lucky to have lived during this time. In fact, I already do feel that way. As a child of the 90s (was born in 79, but I came of age in the 90s), I can say that in my own mind I feel like I had it pretty damn easy. This has been one hell of a wakeup call. I guess every generation needs one.

And you're welcome for the standing O. You earn them regularly. :)

[grantcart]

94. agreed

of course at the time they were never as revered as they are now

[opihimoimoi]

11. K&R need 1 more r

[grantcart]

47. thanks

[lostnotforgotten]

12. The Republican Party Has Been On A Road To Nowhere For A Very Long Time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqlB8UplZw4

Burnin Down The House Was The Only Thing They Understood.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozc70JPGRMQ&feature=related

Besides Forcing all Of Us To Live During Wartime.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzORu1dqEE0&feature=related

I Guess That's All You Can Expect From A Bunch Of Psycho Killers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzEadbTCKDA&feature=related

That Said, Maybe Obama Will Take Us To the River

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6axv_boLXg&feature=related

[grantcart]

52. thanks for the links

[barbtries]

77. i guess i'll have to go watch 'em all

i love talking heads, and all my music's in storage.

make one about sarah palin to "and she was" - could be great eh?

[Forkboy]

25. This is a Rovian trap!

:)

[grantcart]

26. that's what they said in 64 right up to November 4th lol

[babylonsister]

29. I think they welcome their destruction at this point. They don't want to

own it. But they do. And we need to make them 'embrace their republicanism' that messed up everything.

[grantcart]

82. the religious right would be happy to have a big defeat if it left them in total

control so that they could run on a 'pure' platform which they believe would be wildly successful.

[vaberella]

32. Do you think there will be a rise in the Independent party...? Minus Lieberman.

Great post GC.

[lostnotforgotten]

35. We Have To Start Over Somewhere - Independent Suits Me Fine

Never did like oaths of fealty.

[vaberella]

38. Great ness..when do we start? I'd love to start a strong new party that doesn't pander...

We can do that now since the REpubs want to change to GOP or just don't want to be called Repubs any more. Maybe something snazzier than Repubs. How about "pluralists" ...that's the only one I could come up with...

[saltpoint]

33. Quite an encouraging thought that a national political party

cannot thrive on its own incompetence and deceit and hypocrisy.

And a damned excellent post to say so. Thank you, grantcart.

[grantcart]

55. tks

[firedupdem]

34. Thank You! You always make it easy to understand. I hope people

take heed and realize what is happening to this country. Thanks again.

[grantcart]

39. thank you for your kind reply

[Liberal Dose]

41. The only thing these overlapping groups have left to hold themselves together is their hatred of us.

Actually, I thought the war on liberals was the one and only thing holding their party together since the 70s.

[grantcart]

56. And the genius of Obama is he never takes the bait making those who push it seem even more crazy

[Raksha]

99. I've noticed that too--the ONLY unifying factor on the right

is their hatred of liberals. Maybe they hate us for our freedoms? I've never been able to figure of WHY they hate us so much--it's just very obvious that they do.

And I hate them right back! Which means I don't give a damn how, or if, they rebuild their party. THEY self-destructed, so it's THEIR damn problem! I'm not about to offer them any constructive advice on how to go about building a new conservative party--not that they'd pay any attention if I did. They can just choke on their own corruption and hatred forever for all I care.

[WillyT]

42. Superb GC... Simply Superb !!!

K & R !!!

:applause::yourock::applause:

:hi:

[grantcart]

57. tks

[WeDidIt]

43. K & R

Very well said.

In '64, they had a unifying message ion their loss.

In '08, they will bbe left with a message of scattering off in all directions and rolling the dice on hare-brained "get votes quick" schemes.

[grantcart]

79. tks IWantAnyDem

[berni_mccoy]

44. Excellent post.

[grantcart]

88. tks Berni

[seasat]

45. Bush spilt the kersosene and they just tossed a match

I completely agree with your post. If we get more small business owners, then we become the party of the majority. The Repubs will be fractured and some will probably migrate the Constitutional and Libertarian parties. The Repubs will be a shell of themselves. All I can say is good riddance.

[grantcart]

46. good analogy

[nini]

48. "Today the House Republicans turned their back on the little guy."

nothing new here but maybe this time the dumbasses that vote against their best interest will wake up.

I hope nothing is left of them but a pile of ashes at the feet of Lady Justice.

[grantcart]

63. well maybe the fact that we call them dumbasses slows down their coming over here lol

thks fr your reply

[nini]

64. oh please.. they are dumbasses

They don't come to the light because they're allowing their fears (racist etc..) to be played on them. Therefore, they vote against the party that would help them have a better life because they think the right will keep Mexicans out of here, black folks in their place and terra at bay.

I have far much worse terms to call them and have ZERO patience with their stupidity - they are why this country is falling apart because they keep voting for those who are greedy and have no interest in doing what is right.

Fuck 'em.

[invictus]

49. "a stinking corpse" ... an appropriate metaphor for the Republican Party.

nt

[grantcart]

68. tks invictus

[Raksha]

53. K & R - great post!

[grantcart]

78. thanks Raksha

[Canuckistanian]

59. Excellent analysis, great post

Nice use of metaphors, too - "dead salmon", "stinking corpse".

I really hope we're seeing the dawn of a new era. But it ain't here yet.

[grantcart]

71. tks Canuckistanian

[chicagoexpat]

60. & a lot of DU'ers wish this were happening to the DEMOCRATS

by petulantly & idiotically arguing against a rescue plan

[grantcart]

81. thanks chicagoexpat

where do you live now?

[nam78_two]

61. From your keyboard to...etc.

That is the most encouraging news for the future if that is the case.

[grantcart]

97. yeah wish i could - would stop off at the lottery website first.

[SidneyCarton]

66. I always enjoy your analysis grantcart, you put things into perspective.

K&R

[grantcart]

67. tks Sidney

[barbtries]

69. good essay.

i hope all those small businessman come around to the democratic party.

[grantcart]

84. me too barbtries

[Batgirl]

72. thoughtful, and thought-provoking essay

Small business owners and entrepreneurs are some of the hardest working people I've known. It's bothered me that so many of them accepted the idea that the GOP really gave a damn about them. I've worked for small-business Republicans and have seen them privately expressing dismay and disapproval of GOP sucking up to the religious right, but they still voted for Republicans thinking it was in their interest as small business owners.

It must hurt to find the corporacracy played them for useful idiots like the religious right.

[bertman]

83. Just keep on believing that the Republican party is disintegrating. You'll find out it's like a

Vampire. You can't kill it. It is already undead.

[grantcart]

87. sounds like they could get their own HBO series

kind of a cross between the Sopranos and the new vampire show

[lelgt60]

85. Small business owners vote Republican because...

1. They can't afford to pay health insurance costs for themselves, let alone for their few employees: Then think Democrats will force them to buy health insurance for everyone. They think Republicans won't. Obvious solution: Dem's need clear, simple explanation of health care impact on small business.

2. They think Democrats will enact more regulations (which take both time to understand and implement, and money). Solution: Tough here - Democrats want to regulate things that have bad social consequences. Republicans want to regulate things that should be private. In general, though, this shouldn't impact most small businesses. And, there are probably lots of political regulations that could be done away with, that were just put in place because someone got paid off.

3. They think Democrats will increase taxes on small business. This is probably the easiest one to combat now.

4. The Republicans have focused their rhetoric on small business owners and just have a better "brand", not a better "product".

4. They just don't feel welcome in the Democratic party. Too many Dem's call them dumbasses, as if the Dem's never made mistakes.

5. Don't look, but you really don't know what percent of small business owners vote Democrat always, or sometimes. Maybe it's just a stereotype?

All IMHO.

[grantcart]

86. thanks for your reply and 1-4 are correct

For 5 years I worked all over the west as a consultant to small businesses and they run Republican about 80% of the time.

We should make them feel more comfortable and focus specific policy suggestions to help them.

[madrchsod]

89. the implosion of the republican party started in illinois

during the election of obama in 2004. the republican party in illinois still has`t recovered from their defeat. it will take years for the national party to recover from john,sarah,and the religious right.

[grantcart]

92. it will be Bush's lasting legacy that he left his party so divided

and it will be Obama's that he left it so united

[Shine]

90. Excellent analysis, grantcart. K & R

:kick:

[grantcart]

93. thanks shine

[frickaline]

91. k&r, always a pleasure to read your posts

[grantcart]

95. tks frickaline

[Ah Xoc Kin]

98. or Republicans are positioning themselves for the future

of small business and government fiscal discipline

if you know things are going to be tight, why not
act as if they already are?

[grantcart]

100. tks for your reply