Q: Guess what's currently riding high at 62.1% at Intrade.com?

[Bicoastal]

A: The probability that we'll be saying "President Barack Obama" next year.

President John McCain? 37.5%.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp

The market moves in mysterious ways...:evilgrin:

[RollWithIt]

1. How does intrade payoff the winner?

If for example, someone were to invest a $100.00 on Obama, does that mean they would pay off $137.50 if Obama wins?

[slick8790]

4. You would buy each individual contract at $0.62, if Obama wins, the contracts become worth $1,

if he loses, they become worth $0.

[quantass]

5. You got it.

[Sodan]

2. And they're very "conservative" - others got it at 68-70

[asdjrocky]

3. It might sound kind of funny.

But when I was with the Edwards campaign, the Intrade numbers were the only ones we ever watched, and they were almost always right on.

[Sodan]

6. Bookmakers got Obama: -275 McCain: +200 now.

[Bicoastal]

8. Obama's down by nearly 300, and McCain is up by 200? Really?

[Sodan]

10. Decimal: Obama: 1.36 McCain: 3.00

[Bicoastal]

7. That's because all partisanship disappears money is involved...

...so this is perhaps the most honest reflection of who people think is going to win.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Well when people have money on the line, they tend to not want to fuck things up.

The Vegas Odds are almost always right, too. At least generally speaking, there will always be a few upsets.

However, as much as I like Intrade, we can't forget that a majority were picking McCain not but three weeks ago.