Chuckles Todd sees "a shift towards Obama"...then falls back on the tired "older white voters" meme.

[jefferson_dem]

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** A shift towards Obama: As the slew of recent national and state polls suggest, our new map reflects a shift in Obama's direction. Four new states have been added to our Toss-up category: three red states (Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina) and one blue state (Pennsylvania). This gives Obama a 212-174 edge, after his more narrow 233-227 lead last week. What's interesting about these shifts is that while Obama is showing an improvement in fast-growing states (CO, FL, NV, NC, VA), he can't seem to put away the Northern tier states of slow-growing states (MI, PA, WI) or make progress in what some believe is still the all-important state of OH. BTW, how is it that, nationally, Obama's numbers are going up but he's struggling in big states like MI, PA and OH? Is this about Obama's inability to make the sale with older white voters? If he can change the electorates in these Southern and Western states, he can afford to lose two of those three industrial states, but it puts more pressure on him to win two of the following three: FL, NC and VA.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, WA (55 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (152 votes)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)

*** Hoosier toss-up: The most surprising move in our map is Indiana, a state that no one believed was a new battleground -- even when Obama's team was first laying out its 25-30 state strategy. Indiana, in fact, is probably the surprise of the cycle. It's a state that probably is somewhere BETWEEN Lean McCain and Toss-up, but because the state's poll numbers look more like a Toss-up state than a Lean McCain state, we're tipping it into the Toss-up category for now, especially since the RNC has decided to ad the state to its TV buy list.

<SNIP>

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/29/1462828.aspx

[chitty]

1. Thanks

That's exactly what I was talking about in another thread.

[Marsala]

2. Older white voters are the Republican base

Of course they aren't going for Obama much. If they were, he'd be around 60%.

[CTyankee]

7. As an older, white voter myself, I say screw 'em.

If they care so little for their own grandkids they can just go to hell for all I care. As of this year, I am totally disassociating myself from my B.I.L. and S.I.L. because they are rethugs, pure and simple. My S.I.L. has two daughters and two granddaughters and she says "I'm prochoice but abortion's not the only issue." I refuse to speak to her or her obnoxious puke of a husband. I don't wish them ill because that is bad karma and I won't do it. But I don't have to listen to them and I'm even tempted to email them the "I'm Voting Republican" video. If you haven't already seen it, here it is again: http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/.

[TwilightGardener]

3. Do they ever worry about McShithead's demographics? EVER??

[Cosmocat]

6. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER ...

it is always "BO has a problem ..."

NEVER have I heard that McCain has some demographic problem, or a problem with some configuration of states.

[SIMPLYB1980]

4. The news needs a horserace or they don't get as much $$$$. n/t

:argh:

[AndyTiedye]

11. The Corporations that OWN the "News" Need a McAin't Victory

Ratings important to them, but helping the Republicans win is far, far, more important.

Surely shilling so shamelessly for the Republicans IS hurting their ratings and they know it.
They do it anyway, because they want the Republicans to win.

[Supersedeas]

15. absolutely, advertisering and marketeers need another 4 years: Free Ride quid pro quo

[WeDidIt]

5. They play the "Older White Voters" card cinsistently due to racial concerns

without ever telling you that "Older White Poeple" are a standard and significantlys olid demographic that has always preferred Republicans.

And then again, maybe that and White men are the only demographics left for Republicans. :shrug:

[Cosmocat]

8. about Indiana - people might discount this ...

but outside of BO's campaigning there, perhaps the biggest moment might turn out to be McCain lying to/standing up Letterman. Letterman is a real source of state pride there.

Seriously, he Fd up BIG time cheesing off Letterman.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

10. My wife is from IN and her family's still there.

They said the same exact thing. You don't fuck with a Hoosier.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. Neither he, nor MSNBC, make more money if this stops being a horserace.

So they'll do everything possible to push the meme that it's still close, pretty much all polling to the contrary at this point.

[JimGinPA]

12. Todd Moving PA To "Toss Up" Is A Fucking Joke!

Obama has never been behind in the polls here, the ground game is being discounted (new voter registration & increased Democratic party affiliation, 70 Obama campaign offices in PA, targeted advertising etc.). They just want to keep the appearance of a "horse race" as many others have suggested.

[rucky]

13. Maybe the contrast can send a message to "Older white voters"

that they're out of step with the mainstream.

[stillcool]

14. Why does Chuck Todd think..

that white people are so stupid?