Five Points

[H2O Man]

"I like a man who grins when he fights." – Winston Churchill

One of the things that I have enjoyed the most during this historic presidential contest is the opportunity that I have to talk about the issues involved with young people. They include my sons (both of whom are college students) and their friends, my daughters (still too young to vote) and their friends, my nieces and nephews, and the sons and daughters of the people that I have worked on political/social issues since we were young adults.

One of the most common questions that they have asked since the mid-summer is, "Why isn’t Barack Obama way ahead of John McCain in the polls?" That’s a valid question. I’ve attempted to answer it by explaining that the summer months are when both political parties work to build the foundation for the fall campaign. Those foundations are not really visible to those who are merely passing by.

The importance of those foundations becomes apparent in the fall months. Thus, I have been confident that the Obama-Biden campaign’s foundation would allow the democratic party to build a larger house on it in late September and especially in November. That democratic house will have more rooms than the republican structure, which means that we will win more Congressional, state, and local elections in November.

The most important point for the fall campaign, I have assured these intelligent and dedicated young people, would be the presidential and vice presidential debates. Below, I have included parts of five articles that show how Barack Obama built upon his campaign’s foundation in the first debate. This week, we will be treated to the debate between Joseph Biden and Sarah Palin, and I am confident that a large part of the viewing audience will be young adults planning to vote in their first presidential election.

One of my friends who spends considerable time at my house, discussing politics with the many young people who come here to watch the primary and now general election debates, made an interesting point on Saturday. He said that as a person in his 70s, he is encouraged by two things: first, the important questions that these young people ask us; and second, the insightful points they make in our discussions. They ask us about "what was it like" in the 1960s and early ‘70s. And they recognize the advantages they have today, including a more sympathetic "older generation," as well as the ability to communicate among a wider audience by using the internet.

Finally, they know that electing Barack Obama is not the solution to the many problems that they face in the future. Rather, it is a first step in a long struggle to repair the damage that his been done to the foundation of our Constitutional democracy in the past 40 years.


{1} LA Times

WASHINGTON -- Democrat Barack Obama has made strides in convincing Americans that he can handle the toughest challenges facing the country, including the financial meltdown and international crises, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey taken after Friday's presidential debate.

The poll of registered voters who watched the first showdown in Oxford, Miss., also showed a slight increase in Obama's lead over Republican John McCain.

The Illinois senator extended his advantage to 49% to 44%, compared with last week, when the same respondents gave him a 48% to 45% edge.

Obama's incremental advance, which followed a week in which McCain controversially inserted himself into the congressional debate over a $700-billion market bailout, tracked with larger gains Obama made among debate-watchers in showing himself ready for the Oval Office. …..

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-poll29-2008sep29,0,7188433.story

{2} Boston Herald

Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in national polls with likely voters flocking to the Illinois senator.

Presidential tracking polls have Obama over McCain in the past weekend. Can Sarah Palin help the ticket climb back? We’ll see Thursday when the two candidates for vice president debate.

The numbers:

The Gallup Daily poll has Obama pulling away 50-42 percent over McCain. But, the full measure of their debate performances won’t be fully calculated until tomorrow, Gallup reports.

The Rasmussen Daily poll also has Obama up 50-44. Rasmussen also reports Americans are down in the dumps over the economy, with only 11 percent saying the country is moving in the right direction. ….

A weekend bostonherald.com poll showed Obama winning Friday’s debate over McCain 59-35 percent, with 5 percent calling it a tie.

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view/2008_09_29_National_polls_put_Barack_Obama_out_in_front/srvc=home&position=also

{3} Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON - The two presidential candidates head into another politically perilous week after a first debate that polls suggest helped Democrat Barack Obama slightly expand his support.

A majority of debate watchers in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Saturday picked Obama over Republican John McCain when asked which candidate offered the best proposals to solve the country’s problems, 52 percent-35 percent. They said Obama did better overall than McCain, 46 percent-34 percent.

Last week, McCain tried to delay the debate because of the Wall Street crisis. This week also promises to be fast-moving for the two senators as the bailout plan comes to the Senate floor midweek and vice presidential candidates Sarah Palin and Joe Biden debate Thursday night in St. Louis. ….

Women gave Obama a 20-point edge on doing a better job in the debate. Men, more evenly divided, tilted slightly toward McCain. Independents said Obama did better, 43 percent-33 percent. ….
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080929/NEWS15/80928043

{4} Bloomberg

One potentially important finding among these debate watchers is that while McCain retained his advantage on experience, voters said Obama seemed more presidential by a 46 percent to 33 percent margin. Among those uncertain about their vote -- those who are either undecided or declaring they may change preference -- Obama was more than 2-to-1 ahead of McCain on this question. ….

Likewise, Obama remained the clear favorite on who has the better ideas for strengthening the nation's economy, which people said is the most important issue in the campaign. He was also preferred on dealing with rising gas prices.

Obama saw an increase in the percentage of voters who view him positively after the debate, and a decline in those who view him unfavorably. …..

On the question of McCain's decision to suspend his campaign last week to address the financial crisis, by 46 percent to 38 percent, more voters in the post-debate poll said they thought he was playing politics rather than acting for the good of the country. …..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3EhjHAVkUjI&refer=home

{5} Baltimore Sun

Herb Smith, political science professor at McDaniel College and one of our most astute observers of politics and political polling, had time to reflect on his initial comments on Friday nights debate. Smith thought Obama had been too nice-nice with McCain, agreeing with his opponent's points more than any presidential debater, Republican or Democrat, since Richard Nixon in 1960. But apparently this didn't bother independent voters, the majority of whom said they prefered Obama's answers in the debate, according to surveys and polls. Here are Smith's Sunday morning reflections:

"Why instant analysis is often wrong: My initial reaction to the Friday debate was that Obama had been excessively deferential to McCain with numerous "John is right"'s or variations thereof. But we must always remember that the amount of spontaneity in these staged confrontations is minimal. Obama knew precisely what he was doing -- he was targeting his message to the only group that counts in these closing weeks, the undecided voters. As a group, they are predominately of independent partisan affiliation or very weak Democrats and Republicans (probably in that order). I suspect that this group dislikes rhetorical negatives and wants the candidates to play nice. That's precisely what Obama did. McCain played to his base ("What Senator Obama doesn't understand . . . ") and Republicans like their meat raw.

"Although I've read that the McCain campaign is already broadcasting a "John is right" commercial in the battleground states, that's not a mind-changer. Most political communications these days only reinforce existing attitudes. Obama voters like Obama TV spots and McCain voters like his. But again, this election hinges on the undecideds, an ever dwindling target group. Again, in the debate, Obama focused on the folks he has to win. McCain sang to his already established choir.

"It's ironic that McCain belittled Obama on the difference between strategy and tactics. Obama appears to have a much firmer grasp on both in the presidential campaign context. Of course, given his history, that's no surprise. This is the guy who beat Hillary, the odds-on favorite. Remember, McCain's primary opposition were two one-term governors. . . ."

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/rodricks/blog/2008/09/more_reflections_on_fridays_de.html

[corkhead]

1. This year is when I have realized that my perspective is quite different from the average voter

and now I see that it just isn't a division of the left, right and center, but also between the addicted and the just-now-becoming-interested. Obama obviously understood this and is playing to the groups that my not have made their minds up months ago like I did.

You've been a help in getting me to understand this and I appreciate your thoughtful posts.

[immoderate]

2. When this is over McCain might understand what strategy means.

Thanks for this analysis. That's what I think is happening, but Barack is so subtle, even us supporters are not quite sure.

--IMM

[bleever]

3. Obama's organization, ground game, and GOTV

are going to shock the world.