Obama's keys to victory in Virginia: County by County analysis

[usregimechange]

As many of you know Virginia is in play for the Democratic Presidential nominee for the first time in as very long time. A recent Rasmussen poll gave Obama a 5% lead in the state.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

A successful win in Virginia will require the expansion of traditional Democratic strongholds like Richmond and also require larger spreads in sub-urban counties. For example, Kerry won populous Fairfax County by 54% whereas Jim Webb won the county by 59%. That may seem like a small difference but in a county containing 1/7th of the state’s population that swing in 5% closes any gap quickly.

Compare Webb's win in VA to Kerry's loss:



Where does Obama need to win big?

Richmond

Kerry won by 70%, +30,530
African Americans 55%
Bachelors or higher 29.5%
Population 197,790
Richmond, the capitol of Virginia, has a significant African American population.


Petersburg

Kerry won by 81%, +7,444
African Americans 77.8%
Bachelors or higher 14.8%
Population 33,740
Historic Petersburg, which had a major role in both the Revolutionary and civil war, is today a part of the Greater Richmond Region. During the civil war Petersburg had the highest percentage of free blacks in the country. Petersburg today has the highest concentration of African Americans in the state.


Charlottesville

Kerry won by 72%, +6,916
African Americans 22%
Bachelors or higher 40.8%
Population 45,049
Home of the University of Virginia, Charlottesville has a significant educated population. It is also known for two very famous former residents, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison.


Falls Church

Kerry won by 65%, +1,870
African Americans 4.5%
Bachelors or higher 63.7%
Population 10,377
The city of Falls Church is located adjacent to Arlington and is a part of the Washington metropolitan area. It has the highest percentage of educated individuals in the state and likely one of the highest in the country.


Alexandria

Kerry won by 67%, +21,272
African Americans 21.7%
Bachelors or higher 54.3%
Population 128,283
Alexandria has the highest population concentration in the state at 8,552 persons per square mile. It is located on the western side of the Potomac River and is comprised of many federal civil service professionals.


Arlington

Kerry won by 68%, +34,352
African Americans 8.7%
Bachelors or higher 60.2%
Population 189,453
Arlington is also one of the most educated cities in the county. It is located in the middle of DC, Alexandria, and Falls church.


Norfolk

Kerry won by 62%, + 17,117
African Americans 45.3%
Bachelors or higher 19.6%
Population 234,403
Norfolk is located at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and is known for its naval base and transit ports. It has a significant African American population.


Portsmouth

Kerry won by 61%, +8,900
African Americans 52.8%
Bachelors or higher 13.8%
Population 100,565
Portsmouth is located across from the city of Northfolk and is also known for its navy shipyards. A majority of its citizens are African American.


Fairfax county

Kerry won by 54%, +33,691
African Americans 9.6%
Bachelors or higher 54.8%
Population 969,749
Fairfax County is vital to Obama’s potential VA win. Its massive population would translate into thousands of votes with just a few percentage swing. Its population is significantly educated like all other parts of the DC metro region.


Demographic charts

[usregimechange]

1. Anyone from VA who can add to this? Groundgame, registrations, etc

[Every Man A King]

4. I know for a fact that the goal in Alexandria

Is to get 80% of the vote with 80% turnout.

[MattNC]

6. that's a tough goal n/t

[Zech Marquis The 2nd]

2. Portsmouth resident here

It's really exciting for me to see so many Obama supporters in my area :bounce: and not just in the traditional stronghold Portsmouth. I've seen the big Randy Forbes signs :puke: but no giant McCain signs, and last time there were huge * all over the damn place...

Portsmouth, Norfolk, Richmond, and Northern VA will be the keys to Obama winning the state, and I dare say even the repukes here seem to be bracing for it!

[smiley_glad_hands]

3. I grew up in P town.

:hi:

[usregimechange]

5. Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3

[tekisui]

7. Oh, boy! I have been wanting to see county by county looks

at some of the swing states. VA, NC, CO, FL, etc.

I know we're getting close now!

[usregimechange]

8. just for the biggest du political nerds!

[usregimechange]

9. Virginia InAdv/PollPosition Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6

Sen. McCain lost ground since our last survey in Virginia among males (down from 58% to 51%), independents (Obama now leads 44%-to-40%), and among both the youngest of voters and seniors.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Va_093008.pdf

[usregimechange]

10. RCP Average 09/17 - 09/29 -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0