Road to 270: Rhode Island

[ccharles000]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/road-to-270-rhode-island.html

DEEP OCEAN BLUE, Rhode Island has the smallest percentage of Republicans of any state in America. Its “Republicans” are often independents, and this is perhaps why Nate lists Rhode Island as the highest percentage of undecideds expected to break for John McCain. Unfortunately for McCain, it won’t be enough in this blue New England enclave. Rhode Island had the second highest Kerry margin in 2004, and the Republican Party has damaged its brand so significantly in Rhode Island that even Lincoln Chafee – a moderate Republican who endorsed Barack Obama – was ousted during the 2006 purge. The state legislature is 5-1 Democratic and Dems hold every statewide seat except governor. Both Congressmen and Senators are Democratic.

What McCain Has Going For Him

Rhode Island’s Democrats didn’t embrace Barack Obama in the primaries, handing him a big loss to Hillary Clinton on March 4. As mentioned at the outset, McCain will likely benefit from undecided voters – by percentage – as much as any other state. In addition, it’s a fairly old state and below average education state. That’s about it as far as the demographic data goes. This is a rough state for any Republican these days.

What Obama Has Going For Him

As much of a dearth of optimism as there is in the statistical data for John McCain, there’s almost no end to the ways Rhode Island favors Democrats. It’s the 3d most liberal state on the Likert scale, the lowest percentage of male voters, the lowest percentage of white evangelicals, the highest percentage of Catholics, the third lowest percentage of “American” ancestry, the 4th lowest percentage of gun ownership, most people live in urban areas, and it’s in the bottom ten of military veterans. The unemployment rate is very high here, an economic factor that works against the incumbent party. Obama will win Rhode Island by double digits.

What To Watch For

Rhode Island doesn’t even have a good sporting rivalry to mention. And please, Brownies, no email. You either, RISD. Our photographer came up with “Family Guy,” and of course both Dumb and Dumber and Something About Mary began their stories in Providence. But politically this year, there’s no drama except for the inside baseball-ish open question about whether Rhody will have the biggest undecided break for McCain. Oh, and Jack Reed, erstwhile VP speculation subject, is facing a Foxwoods casino pit boss named Robert Tingle in an ultrasafe Senate defense. So watch for "Tingle"-centric headline puns.

[slampoet]

1. Wow. This is a pretty ignorant article. Obviously written by someone who didn't go to a state school

and for sure by someone who doesn't and hasn't lived here. Where in Boston does that Sean Quinn live? YOU CAN TELL.



First off the article implied that we voted out Chafee despite the fact he endorsed Obama. WRONG. Chafee was outed because he DIDN'T stand up to BUSH when Chafee was the deciding vote on several appointments like Bolton and the last two Supreme Noms. Obama showed up to a rally for Sheldon Whitehouse the guy who beat Chafee. LATER long after the 2006 election in june/july of 2008 did Chafee endorse Obama. This was also long after Chafee hand RESIGNED as a Republican.

Second, Rhode Island has more college students per capita than anywhere in the USA. It DOESN'T have a low education level. College Education is the SECOND LARGEST INDUSTRY.

Third what kind of Racist BULLSHIT is the statement "the third lowest percentage of “American” ancestry," Are the Narragansett Indians not American Ancestry? Are the Jews who established the Old Temple in the 1700's not of American Ancestry? By any stretch of this bullshit you can say anyone who wasn't here 40,000 years ago to greet the Being Straight immigrants is "Not of American Ancestry"


Fourth we know you didn't go to a state school because you mention Brown and Risd. If you were to combine the student body of Brown and RISD and then double it you still wouldn't have even a good part of the amount of students that attend University of Rhode Island and Providence College. Also if the author had ever spent time here he would also know that an average ballgame between these two RIVALS also has a crowd attending that is larger than Brown and RISD combined as well.