Voter Registration Numbers in NC-- Shocking.

[applexcore]

I posted this in another political forum and thought I would share it here. I tried to format it so that it was easy to read, hope it helps:


Before anyone starts preaching how voter registration doesn't mean they'll show up at the booth, I know that. These numbers however, are quite surprising.

9-27-08 (Current Registered Voters):
(D)- 2,719,346
(R)- 1,953,102
( I)- 1,321,692

8-30-08 (Last month):
(D)- 2,683,401
(R)- 1,939,938
( I)- 1,297,004


1-05-08 (Beginning of year):
(D)- 2,511,446
(R)- 1,919,575
( I)- 1,173,399

So looking at this, in the last month, approximately 36,000 people have registered as a Democrat and approximately 13,000 as a Republican. About 25,000 new Inedependents/Unaffiliateds as well.
(Thats almost 3x as many new Democrats than Republicans)

Since the beginning of the year, approximately 208,000 have registered as a Democrat and only approximately 33,000 as a Republican. About 149,000 new Indepents/Unaffiliateds as well.
(Thats about 6.5x as many new Democrats than Republicans)

I would hazard to guess that about 60% of the Independents are hesitant Republicans. If you factor in that, the Democratic registrations are still dwarfing the Republicans. Even if you give all of the new Independents to the Republicans, there would still be more new Democrats.

The importance of these numbers is the fact that Bush only won in NC in 2004, when things clearly weren't as bad as they are now, by about 430,000 votes. Point being, if theres enough dissatisfied Independents in NC, it puts it very much in play to be a sleeper state in 2008. The obvious problem is making sure they get to the booth in November.

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

1. Wow..no comments or kicks

So, here's a comment and a kick! Outstanding!

[applexcore]

5. Thank you

Its my first OP here, btw. :smoke:

[Alexander]

2. North Carolina, Missouri and West Virginia are Obama's "sleeper" states this year.

Even if he doesn't win them, it will be surprisingly close.

[TheDebbieDee]

12. I'm in Missouri and I think O will take MO!

If turnout is good in Kansas City, St. Louis and Columbia, then O will walk in MO!

[Psst_Im_Not_Here]

23. Don't count out Indiana either.

The only thing that will stop him in Indiana is racism. His internals there must be interesting, he's spending time and money there.

[FrenchieCat]

3. This is outstanding....yes it is!

Thank you for that math. :patriot:

[applexcore]

4. RCP now has Obama leading in NC

So, I just find out after making this post that Real Clear Politics has NC going to Obama on the "No Toss-up States" map now. They're just now posting a poll from Ram. on 9/23 that has Obama leading by 2! What a great day.

[Tarc]

6. BTW, excellent formatting

Wish more poll/statistic types of topics were as nice-looking as this. GJ. :)

[Imagevision]

7. One thing that comes to mind is how many few new voters came out in 2004, or so they claimed...

[grantcart]

8. excellent work in NC and great post thank you

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

9. NC also has One Stop Registration and Voting: 10/16 - 11/1

We can register some more between Oct 16 and Nov 1 during our early voting.

North Carolina doubled the number of early voting sites from 2004.

Do your GOTV efforts during early voting, where people can clear up registration problems
that they may not know they have.

[applexcore]

10. Drag everyone you know there

I've heard that a lot of community leaders, such as in the black community, will be driving people to the polls in buses.

[FlyingSquirrel]

11. ... AND enough disaffected Republicans who stay home.

That may well be the deciding factor this time around. You can't get many Republicans to vote for a Democrat, but if they stay home it's half a vote for Obama right there.

[applexcore]

14. very true

[grantcart]

13. welcome to DU

[Jennicut]

15. Wow, good for NC.

[usregimechange]

16. The Obama camp has the Dem's numbers and will make sure they get to the polls with your help

[applexcore]

17. TTT/kick

[Essene]

18. source for the data, please?

[applexcore]

20. Here you go

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/vr_stats_main.asp

Sorry about that. I should have mentioned I got the numbers from the NCSBOE website.

[elkston]

19. People usually don't vote in primaries, just to skip the general

And LOTS of new voters came out in NC to vote for Obama. They will be back in the GE. And that's not even counting those registered/motivated since then. Even a modest uptick in these voters will be significant, I think.

[Essene]

21. Possible relevance for interpreting polls?

My understanding is that pollsters are using methods that either (a) weight responses based on their views of "likely voter" patterns or (b) stratify their sampling based on expected turn-out proportions among registered voters.

Thus, the implication is that usually polls dont predict bursts of voter registration or turn-out among sub-groups and hence why they mess up in cases like 2000 & 2004 where suddenly a wave of turn-out among white evangelicals breaks predictions (in that case, mostly due to wedge issue ballot initiatives that are NOT as widespread this year).

This year, we're seeing those trends in Obama's favor.

So, on the one hand we have to be a bit concerned about "bradley effects" among independents since Obama is polling under the wider trend for democrats. Likewise, we can expect the GOP to push wedge issues in swing states to stir up as much Obama hate as possible to pull up their voting base(s). There could be jumps in pro-gop latinos, white evangelicals and various sub-groups needing careful attention.

On the other hand, there's considerable indication these registration and voter energy trends are leaning Obama's way across the nation. In fact, i think we can assume some much-higher-than-usual bursts of voting among key sub-groups.

In the end, i think in a few states we're going to see Obama's numbers being way higher than polling predicts.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. There's a familiar trend here

Republicans quietly do a better job of registering voters between presidential cycles, prior to the election year itself. Then we frantically catch up and surpass in the final 9 or 10 months. Whenever I see a thread like this, touting our recent gains, it's virtually guaranteed if you look a little closer the net is not nearly as dramatic as it appears. Same thing in a thread regarding Virginia a few months ago, and Florida is always that way. I was ripped for pointing it out in 2004, at about this stage of the cycle.

For instance, check the link provided by the original poster (not in the OP, but asked and provided later in the thread) and look at the numbers on 1/1/05. That's the closest we can come to the 2004 general election period. At that point, the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans was roughly 672,000. Now look at the net on 1/5/08, atop this thread. The gap was 592,000. That means from January 2005 through January 2008, the GOP gained a net of 80,000 registrants.

From January through current we have avalanched them, which is awesome news, but all it did was turn a +672,000 from January 2005 into a +766,000 right now. So the gain is impressive, but not nearly as one sided as the recent numbers make it appear.

[progressoid]

24. True.

It would be nice if we couold continue this trend after the election. We need more than just a brief surge.

[marions ghost]

25. kick

:kick: and :applause: for NC

[Juan_de_la_Dem]

26. Welcome. Good post

[randr]

27. Possible downside

Independents who are out and out racists register to vote against Obama.