538.com has been updated. FL and IN flip to Obama WooHoo!!!! 317.8 EV's Wooo Hoooo!!

[PerfectSage]

Yesterday's map



Today's map




http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[thenext8seconds]

1. WOW!!!

I've been keeping track of this since August and he has never had this much of a lead since! Good news!!

[Bicoastal]

2. Next stop: NC and MO!

[TuxedoKat]

18. Hey, I was just going to post the same thing!

Would especially love to see MO turn blue again, where I used to live.

[Firespirit]

3. FL is a seriously messed up state, but if it and VA go blue

then I won't have to speak of my home region with irritation anymore. I really like that bright blue on VA. It looks better in azure.

If we can flip FL and OH, that would be sweet revenge for the past two elections.

[1corona4u]

We are not a messed up state, and I resent that comment.

[Jennicut]

19. I hope Florida goes blue for us but I was so disappointed after 2000

Hopefully there is less voter fraud.

[1corona4u]

20. Of course, we all were...but this has been a red state for a long time...

and with the way things are right now, unless the repukes steal it, I think it goes to Obama. I will be disappointed if not, and intend to speak out about it. Most of what I hear from people, who are not voting for Obama, don't like mccrap either, and aren't even voting.

[Jennicut]

22. Poll #'s seem to indicate its moving in Obama's direction

I will be directing all my positive energy and auras to Florida on election night!

[AzNick]

28. $39 million go a long way, baby

Slowly but surely.

Even if we do not win FL, at least let's give them hell over there.

[jab105]

4. As a native Floridian, I'm working on about 4 people right now...

I already got one to commit Obama...

REALLY hope that we can go blue in November!!

PS-Obama = COME TO GAINESVILLE!!!!!!!

[JohnnyCougar]

7. I was just canvassing today in Polk County

One independent lady informed me that she wasn't voting for Obama because she didn't like his name. But there was another undecided that I think I swung over.

I'm going out tomorrow to finish my walk list. I will have knocked on another 100 doors this weekend.

[SaveAmerica]

34. Thanks, JohnnyCougar, my kids appreciate what you're doing for their future,

and I do too. Thanks for walking the walk.

[ClarkUSA]

5. Wonder what Thursday's VP debate will do to that map?

Can't wait! :evilgrin:

[Fire1]

38. not a damn thing.

[Motown_Johnny]

6. It looks like Ohio moved to lean Obama too.... They grow corn there too ya know

http://ourohio.org/index.php?page=2007-surprising-corn-yields

[Kolesar]

10. abnormally dry season?

We had a wet summer in northern Ohio. I have not watered the vegetable garden since June. The rain harmed the winter squash.

[Motown_Johnny]

13. that was '07 numbers.. just to show that Ohio does produce lots of corn

I don't know if we have solid '08 numbers yet

[PeaceNikki]

8. Except that's OH.

IN when neutral.

[intheflow]

23. I saw that, too.

But I think what the OP meant was that while Ohio went from neutral to blue, Indiana went from red to neutral. Both are significant shifts toward the Dem ticket. Still, technically, you're right--it was Ohio that turned blue so the OP title is misleading.

[Indiana_Dem]

9. WOOHOO!!!!! How did Indiana flip!? I can't find any new polls on the site?

I am so pumped!

[PerfectSage]

14. It flipped because 538.com uses state and national polling data.

Since Obama had good gallop,Raz, R2000 and hotline national polls today, the 538.com model flipped IN from 36% win chance yesterday to 49% win chance today.

[aaaaaa5a]

11. I'm all for optimism but...

Is Obama really the favorite now in Ohio, Florida and Nevada? Is Indiana 100% even?


Most of the polling I've seen has the race close, but to call these states "leaning Obama" might be a stretch. Those polls next week are going to be HUGE!

[1corona4u]

21. I don't think it's a stretch, at all.

People are fed up with the republican way of life, and their lies.

[PerfectSage]

24. Yep except IN

OH,FL,NV and IN are toss up states. Obama has a better win percentage in OH, FL and NV than McCain and Obama has a 49% win chance in IN.

[darius15]

12. They still show IN as McCain+0.3. Everything else is great. Obama landslide!

[PerfectSage]

15. If Obama can keep his momentum, theirs gonna be a lot of blue on the 2008 electoral map.

:pray:

[Cosmocat]

17. He Fd up BIG time cheesing off Letterman ...

Letterman is a source of state pride - given that Indiana is in BO's Illinois power zone, his standing up Letterman might be enough to flip state.

[grantcart]

16. Indiana? well maybe they are projecting some ethanol bounce

[DefenseLawyer]

36. Indiana is about turnout

Indiana is a "red state" but its two largest population centers, Indianapolis and "The Region", as NW Indiana is called, are heavily democratic. NW Indiana has a large AA population and is essentially part of Chicago as much as it is part of Indiana. If we can get massive turnout in those two population centers we have the numbers to win Indiana. No joke.

[AwakeAtLast]

25. Search my posts - I have been predicting this

I see MANY more Obama signs and stickers in this state than I have McCain. Even in the 'red' parts. :D

:bounce: :bounce:


It's not nice to stand up Indiana's Native Son!!!


:woohoo: :woohoo:


Let's just hope Mitch goes down with him!!!

[PerfectSage]

26. Even Rove.com has IN as a tossup state WooHoo!

http://rove.com/election

Can't wait to see some new IN state polls.

If Rick Davis get back into the news cycle.

[MadBadger]

27. What evidence are they using to put Indiana in the Obama column?

[DCBob]

31. If fact if you look at the details they still have IN projected to be McCain by 0.3%

I also wonder about FL. Obama is definitely gaining and I think Obama will win FL but most of the recent polling still has McCain up slightly or tied. However, even without those the map still looks great!

[darius15]

32. They project that when national numbers move, state numbers move with it. So let's say...

there's a state like Indiana. If the popular vote around the country was a complete tie, Indiana would probably would go to McCain by 5 percent. But in the national polls right now, Obama is up by 5. So Nate's logic is that since Obama is doing 5 percent better than a tie in the national polls, he's probably doing 5 points better in Indiana, and so he has it as a tie. Well, actually he has it at McCain +0.3. Hope this helps!

[PerfectSage]

37. Sorry IN is 49% Obama vs 51% McCain win percentage yesterday it was 36% Obama

Still close. Obama had a very good day in the national tracking polls. That's why 538.com flipped IN from leans McCain to tie.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/27/tracking_poll_update.html



Tracking Poll Update
The latest daily tracking polls all show Sen. Barack Obama moving into a clear lead over Sen. John McCain over the course of the last week.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48%, McCain 43%

Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 44%

Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

These trackers do not include the impact of last night's presidential debate but will serve as a useful baseline.

[AzNick]

29. WTF is ACELA??? First time I read this name

I Wikied and it only seems to be some type of train...

[darius15]

33. I never heard of it either! LOL!

[BlooInBloo]

30. 78+% win percentage - WOOT!!

[Arkana]

35. Would LOVE to win NC.

With Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA or NC we have a winner.