This is not a rerun of 2004. Here are the facts.

[Hokie]

I have seen some on DU caution that Kerry was ahead in 2004 yet lost (Ohio, I know). I agree that it is wise not to be over confident. Kerry won the first debate by consensus. However, it didn't put Kerry ahead. I checked Real Clear Politics and found the chart below. Kerry held a lead after the convention but never led in the polls after the Bush convention. Polls in late September are more meaningful than the earlier polls because most people are making up their minds now and less likely to switch.

RCP changed their format for 2008 so I can't find an exactly comparable graph. They show Obama up 4.3 % for the period of 9/21 - 9/26. Obama has led consistently except for the period after the GOP convention and the Barbie bounce. Here is a link to the 2008 data. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/... If someone can put together a good graph for 2008 please post it.

[RoccoR5955]

1. Here's a good graph

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html

[Hokie]

3. Thanks

I think we got excited in 2004 because a few polls showed Kerry up but as the RCP graph shows an average of a bunch of polls. I think this is lining out to be a 5 - 8 point win for Obama and over 300 EV. I sure hope that is the case. With wacky McCrazy rolling the dice who knows? I think eventually folks will get tired of his grandstanding and melodrama.

[RoccoR5955]

6. My prediction

for quite some time is Obama 312- McCain 226

[kenny blankenship]

9. Kerry had a lead & there was great momentum. Then he went surfboarding as Rove went swiftboating

It was a fatal moment that passed unrecognized at the time by K's campaign manager - that person you've never heard about again.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. heh, McCain has only been above 270 twice or so since May.

[PerfectSage]

2. I've looked at that chart before and realized Obama is doing much better than Kerry.

The other differnce is that states Kerry didn't win: IA, NM,CO and VA have high Obama win percentages and are likely to flip to Obama. :bounce:

[Hokie]

5. More ways to win in 2008

Kerry had to win one of Florida or Ohio. I think Obama will win one or both of them. He can reach 270 without either but it is dicier. The other unique thing about 2008 is the "Palin effect". Like it or not she brought some excitement to a dead campaign. However, it was a double edged sword. She got all the press for about two weeks and it was all positive. Now that the luster is wearing off and people are seeing that she is totally without substance reality is setting in big time. I think the negatives for Palin haven't even begun to peak. The next set of polls will be very interesting. Again, watch for McCrazy to pull more stunts.

[RoccoR5955]

11. Like the tagline I use states:

"Understanding is a three-edged sword."

It's from my fave Sci-Fi series, Babylon 5

[BlooInBloo]

7. Some people like to be chained to the past, rather than simply learning from it...

and moving on.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Here's an Obama-McCain graph.

So compare it:

[blue-kite]

10. Rasmussen Balence of Power

This is always interesting... also because they've been the more conservative towards Obama's lead.
Iowa already gone from red to likely blue...
The only toss-ups that remain are six and five of them were previously red.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update