McCain on the verge of melt down --- 3% change in 5 states would create a landslide

[grantcart]

Obama's Strategy Paying Off

It is clear that Obama's strategy is to attack the swing red states and show patience in the swing blue states in order to create a wide battle front of 12-15 states rather than 5-6 states. This will allow Obama to bankrupt the McCain/RNC campaign by forcing them to spread their resources thin so that they cannot bundle up their limited resources into 5-6 states.

This chart by pollster lays out the 15 states that are still swing states:




First notice that 2 Bush 2004 states, New Mexico and Iowa have flipped from red to blue and are no longer considered swing.

Next notice that the greatest movement is in the red states where Obama has been pouring in resources, VA NC IN

Indiana, unbelievably has now moved ahead of Ohio. I think Obama is purposely letting some blue states stay closer than expected to encourage McCain to waste money there before he comes back and slams the door shut.


This brilliant line graph by phrigndumass shows graphically how close the remainging swing states are to turning blue.



If that '50%' line moves 3 percent to the right 5 more states fall and the bounce from the debate should move Florida, Nevada and Ohio, plus the Ethanol fall out in corn producing states should deliver 3 percent in Missouri and Indiana.

If that happened then the map would look like this




I think it shows that the Obama campaign has a carefully arranged plan that prevents them from getting out ahead too early and peaking too fast. By concentrating on the red states first they create a massive conundrum for McCain planners and make them stretch their resources. They can then come back and push the blue swing states creating momentum at the right time so that they don't seem to peak.


(thread had substantial help by phrigndumass who is experiencing peak work demands the next two weeks and has to limit his posting)

[graywarrior]

1. I canvassed mostly independents in my neighborhood today (NH)

Majority are now strong suppoters of Obama Yesterday, they were on the fence.

[grantcart]

4. great update I am finding the grandmothers in my little street are now all Obama all the time

they even lie and tell me they are Democrats even though I have the registration by house and know they are registered Republicans.

They were 'worried' 3 weeks ago and now are all excited sharing the latest during our dog runs.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. Brilliant plan!

especially to broaden the battleground--and with McCain limiting his speaking engagements and keeping Palin hidden, this makes it even harder for him to make headway against the Dems.

[MichiganVote]

3. Michigan is now Obama's. Took time for people to make up their minds.

[sufrommich]

11. I would like to see our state go from light blue

to deep blue.Hopefully soon.

[CitizenLeft]

5. just 3% in 5 states and it's a landslide.

On election night, if this happens, I'm going to break down into a pathetic whimpering slobbering puddle. Thank goodness nobody will be around.

[crazy_vanilla]

6. great data, and great analysis, never thought of it in those terms

until I saw the charts

[elkston]

7. I cannot wait to read the behind-the-scenes book about the Obama campaign.

...especially if we win.

[goclark]

8. I proudly give the 5th R to this post!

I was so nervous last night I could not watch it.

Thanks to DU I was able to remain sane and not want to take a pan to my TV screen.

Txs grantcart

Fired Up! Ready to Go!

[grantcart]

14. me too just watched the lines go up and down lol

[denem]

9. West Virginia has been swinging hard towards Obama.

It's now less than 4%.

PS What a pretty map that is.

[grantcart]

13. that and Indiana are the really big stories

The republicans must be stunned

[Liberalboy]

10. This is the exact same configuration I'm predicting too !

[grantcart]

19. hope its true

[jacksonian]

12. I've noticed this, too - such a sharp campaign

Obama's running. A thing of beauty.

The other thing to notice is how the campaign events in these swing states actaully move the polls. The whole story of this season is the huge effect Obama's personal appearances have had. It's almost like you can look at that map and see where's he's been. It was the same in the primaries.

McCain was getting slight bumps whenever he had Palin along, but that has stopped and all that ground he gained has been getting overun blue.

[PerfectSage]

15. Hi grantcart That's my landslide electoral map too :)

If politics was like warfare, I'd guess McCain's soldiers will start surrendering or routing from the battlefield. :rofl:

How can NC be +1 Obama? 538.com shows NC as a 33% win percentage and pollster.com shows NC as McCain 47.5 Obama 45

[bevoette]

16. i fell out of my chair when Olberman said Reps were dumping $$ into INDIANA last night - WOW

[phrigndumass]

17. McCain's only chance to win is to dump Palin and pick up Pawlenty

Another Hail-Mary. That could possibly win Minnesota for him, and if he steals back Virginia, New Hampshire and North Carolina, he would win 274 to 264.

That's his only shot! If he dumped Palin and picked a Southerner for VP, he'd still lose Minnesota and lose the election on a tie or worse.

But even Pawlenty might not save him because that would make him a major flip-flopper, indecisive and out of control, flying by the seat of his pants. The Palin pick is working for us on so many different levels.

(btw, thanks for posting this, gc!)

[PerfectSage]

22. It's too late to dump Palin?. Early voting has started, the ballots are printed?

Bob Barr is trying to get Obama/Bidden and McCain/Palin kicked off the ballot in Texas for filling too late?

McCain is stuck with deadweight Palin?

[goclark]

18. Who was that joker on CNN? MSNBC this evening saying

and showing the Electoral Map that was "neck and neck?"

Was that Chuck Todd? :mad:

[itsrobert]

20. CNN's John King

Tries to play it 50/50 all the time.

[Tatiana]

21. Outstanding analysis, per usual grantcart. NH is not close.

You are right... Team Obama wants it to look that way. But 3 weeks from now, it will not even be close. Neither will Michigan or Wisconsin. From the Illinois Border State Strategy that Obama has implemented, it sounds crazy, but I think they will come close to winning EVERY midwestern state. I have been canvassing in Indiana. It is *very* close to turning blue. I'd say closer than MO, at this point.

There is no way McCain or the RNC has enough money to contest MO, IN, OH, WI, MI, CO, NM, FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, and NV. It's not possible. If we win MO, for instance, I think it will be because McCain gave up on it in favor of another state (like NC or VA). And honestly, with the way Team Obama has opened up this electoral map, McCain is going to have to give up on quite a few states and adopt more of a "must-win" state strategy.

[and-justice-for-all]

23. I am in Indiana too!!

Terre Haute. Me and a friend have done some canvassing work and I want to do more this week.

I think Indiana will turn blue this time.

[RNdaSilva]

24. As I mentioned, some time ago...

I have a bet on Obama giving 30 EVs. I felt comfortable then, even more so today.

Watch for further gains after Thursday's VP debate. And, after Obama/McCain debate #2 the Fat Lady will be warming up her vocals.

Great post...

[SallyMander]

25. What a freakin' BEAUTIFUL map!!!

:bounce:


Oh yeah, and K&R! :D

[Curtland1015]

26. Amazing!

I hope it stays that way until November!