Today's Gallup...

[aaaaaa5a]

Obama 49 (+1)

McCain 44 (-1)


This is a roling 3 average. The first impact of the debate won't begin to be known until Sunday's survey results.

[OmahaBlueDog]

1. So that tie 2 days ago was clearly a polling glitch

[aaaaaa5a]

2. Here's what's interesting

Rasmussen 50-44
Dkos 49-43
Gallup 49-44


All of the polls say the same thing. And yes, clearly Thursday's Gallup results were a "glitch." That's why it's important to site more than one poll. I like the way RealClearPolitics averages all of the polls. This limits the effect of outliers.

[OmahaBlueDog]

6. Will 5-6 points be enough?

The freepers think Obama needs 6-7 points in the polling to win to account for Bradley effect. I'd be curious to see what you think about that. Bradley v. Dukmejian was 20 years ago. Racial attitudes have really changed for people under 35, and I think those not likeing a candidate due to color will vote McSame anyway.

[DemFromMem]

3. 5-6 seems to be the consensus polling number

Today's numbers - Rasmussen at 6; Daily Kos at 6; Hotline at 5 (with 26 point lead for Obama among independents)

[Bucky]

4. Actually, it usually takes a few days for events to filter into polls.

Tuesday or Wedneday is when we'll start to see the real impact. I'm thinking that the upticks we see here have more to do with his pre-debate shenanigans.

[bevoette]

5. i think it was Andrew Sullivan on Maher last week who said that 7% was the 'safe zone'...

he thought that a 7-9% lead going into the election was the safest to account for the 'bradley effect' or whatever...that 60-70% of the 'undecideds' that they are speculating are really just bigots unwilling to admit it, or whatever that poll sad last week.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

8. My theory is that a lot of folks have been pretty open about saying that

he's an uppity, muslin, exotic monster, and that the bradley effect won't be so large. FWIW, If I had to guess, I'd say 2-3%.

[ailsagirl]

7. Can't wait for those