Just to inject a little reality re: VP debate.

[last1standing]

In reading a ton of threads today about the upcoming VP debate I keep seeing that everyone thinks that Biden is going to wipe the floor with Palin. That's probably true, but please remember the debates between Gore and bush* as well as those between Kerry and bush*. The expectations were so low for bush* in ever debate that all he had to do there was stand up and not wet himself in order to win in the public's eyes.

I think we're setting ourselves up for the same thing with Palin.

I'm subscribing to Joe Biden's philosphy. Palin didn't get to be governor of Alaska by being an idiot, regardless of what everyone seems to think. Like bush*, she is a conniving, mean spirited politician who will use every dirty trick in the book to claw her way to the top. To underestimate her determination is a big mistake.

Remember, we all laughed at bush* for his many fuck-ups and gaffes, but he's been in the white house now for 7 1/2 years and appointed supreme court justices.

Yes, underestimating your opponent can have dire consequences.

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. Biden will have to be careful with her.

Best he feeds her all the rope she needs, and let her do the dirty work herself.

Joe can handle it.

[Amonester]

2. I trust Biden will hammer on the 300 billion of tax-cuts McPalin intend

to give to the Rich.

Once that will be said loud and clear (again) by Joe, there's no way out for the know-nothing sarah.

Biden will win this. I don't know by what margin, but I am sure he will.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

3. REMEMBER when we underestimated ADMIRAL STOCKWELL!!???@#$!?

And he wiped the floor with them other guys so bad that
I forget who they ever were. Youre absolutely right, the consequences of
underestimating Sarah Palin is so dire that it's impossible to.
Thank for for hurtling this timely warning!!!!

[last1standing]

4. Just as helpful as always, A.

And just as coherent as well. :eyes:

[A-Schwarzenegger]

12. Youre welcome, last, I just want to help you save this campaign before it's too late!

:* B-) :toast: :puke:

[cameozalaznick]

59. LOL. Your post made me remember that he said...

"Who am I and why am I here?" And then later appeared to fall asleep. Good times.

[jacksonian]

5. yep, this was the strategy in her Gov race

debate, debate, debate 'cause she can't handle it.

Didn't work.

[beac]

46. However, in the Governor's race debates, the subject was the ONE thing she knows a lot about--

Alaska politics.

Unfortunately for Palin, I don't see Gwen Ifill loading up on the 'What's the best way to distribute our massive oil wealth while still managing our booming growth?' questions for the VP debate.

[nini]

6. There's setting the bar low.. and setting the bar in negative territory

We're not talking about someone who may have a grasp of the issues but is not a good communicator/debater here. We're talking about someone who does NOT have a under the surface grasp of the issues. She will be snide and condescending, she's already proven to be the reigning queen of that crap. What will be exposed yet again is her inability to answer questions that are important to the survival of this country.

THAT is what will nail her coffin shut - her ability to be a snot won't help her.

[last1standing]

8. You just described bush* but he's in the white house today.

Yes, I believe he stole it but do you think the repubs won't try that again if it's close enough.

I'm just saying that we need to fight every battle like its going to be a game changer and we need to keep trying to move that bar back up. At this point if Palin can walk out on stage without two aides holding her up, she wins.

We need to raise that bar because we can never have another bush* in the white house. We deserve competent, intelligent leaders, not people we feel sorry for.

[timtom]

7. "Palin didn't get to be governor of Alaska by being an idiot..."

I don't know how she got to be governor of Alaska, but

she IS an idiot. In spades.

[mitchum]

24. Maybe she just had to be a little bit less of an idiot than the people who voted for her

I agree; she is an idiot

[sunnybrook]

9. I frankly still wonder if it will occur

That does not seem as radical a notion as it did a week ago. Could they come up with some drama to replace her and very suddenly have another VP showing up for debate, such as Romney or whoever? This is possible!

[Captiosus]

25. Sigh..

Palin won't be replaced.

Voting has begun.
State laws have attached.

She can drop out, yes, but to be replaced the RNC would be have to start multiple state lawsuits to change the ballots and still doesn't address the early voters. With barely over a month before the election that's not feasible.

[JimDandy]

63. Yes, if she dropped out or died her name would still be on the ballot

and that wouldn't matter one iota. McCain could then make a better pick, the repub party would get behind him and vote for the McCain/Palin ticket anyway KNOWING that they would really get McCain/"better pick".

Never-the-less, that scenario is only likely in the event of Palin's death. Anything else would be political suicide for McCain.

[FatDave]

10. Something I noticed about last night's debate that may apply to the VP debate.

Watching the debate last night, I actually thought McCain did better than expected and that Obama had not been agressive enough. I honestly thought it was pretty close if I looked at it from a Joe Average Voter perspective.

But Joe Average Voter clearly thought Obama won. That's when I realized, Obama won on all the points that Kerry and Gore lost on. Gore lost because he sighed and rolled his eyes. Kerry lost because he couldn't deliver a soundbite.

Well, last night the democrat was the one who was cool, confident, and likable. McCain muttered under his breath and acted like a dick.

So I'm convinced that Joe Average Voter doesn't give a damn about the substance of the debate, and just decides which guy is more likeable. I realize that's not exactly a news flash or anything, but this time our guy is the likable one. No fucking contest.

Now consider who's more likable between Biden and Palin. We have nothing to worry about.

[JustAnotherGen]

16. Ditto

I think Joe Biden comes off as very warm, likable, puckish. Sarah Palin is a vicious woman who detests - DETESTS - Barack Obama. She's going to attack. And Joe will take it in stride and say, "Nooooooooow Governor Pa-lin. . ."

[xiamiam]

11. she is so incapable of performing well i dont even think we will be able to witness it

mcliar will pull another stunt...not sure what..but sarah will probably bow out and rudy step..or something equally as shocking...but palin in a debate with biden is going to be a disaster for her..period..

[JustAnotherGen]

13. I do think

He will wipe the floor with her - but he will do it as a Statesman and a Leader. He will be benevolent and respectful - but at some point he's going to echo Obama and say, "Now look Governor Palin. You just can't make stuff up. Here's where you made *Insert Wrongheaded Idea of Your Choice* it up.

Then she's going to attack.

He'll smile - and ask her to please repeat what she said, and THEN ask/state, "But again Governor Palin, here's where you are making stuff up. . ."

Her cutesy wootsie thing works at town hall meetings. I don't believe for a minute he's going to let the cutsie wootsie stuff just pass.

She better bring her A-Game.

[last1standing]

19. I have great confidence in Biden but we should also remember the structure of the debate.

It's going to be short answers with very limited rebuttals. That means all Palin has to do is parrot the talking points she learned by heart and smile. In the meantime, Biden will be trying to inject some serious policy discussion into the debate.

I'm afraid that if Palin can get away with not having to back up her soundbites then she will win in the pubic's eyes. That is how bush* did it and the repubs are going for a repeat. Because of this, we shouldn't go along with the media spin that sets the bar for Palin so low.

[Debi]

14. He will have to acknowledge her at the very least - if he ignores her it could be perceived

as sexist or paternalistic. If he attacks he could be seen as a big bully.

I hope he politely acknowledges her and then tears into McCain.

He's our attack dog, let their pit bull bark into the wind.

[last1standing]

20. I think that's exactly what he will do.

The Obama campaign understands that people are mostly concerned about the top of the ticket so Biden will pound mcsame.

[grantcart]

15. um she couldn't even come on camera to make unscripted responses

to the debates last night


She can read but she cannot stand and give and take it.

[Debi]

18. Maybe she misplaced her notecards???

:shrug:

[davepc]

22. She wasn't terrible in the 2006 Alaska gubernatorial debates.

Of course, she had some mastery of the subject matter.

[last1standing]

23. No, she can't but the format of the VP debate favors her in that.

Short responses and limited rebuttal make this debate ripe for zingers and talking points, which are all that palin has. In that respect, I expect her to do far better than the media is giving her credit for.

[Bucky]

17. You're going to hate this, but....

The John McLaughlin group was making the same point last night. Eleanor what's her name said she only had to not fall down on stage to be declared the winner.

The question pundits are asking is can Biden do this without coming off a bully.

Yes, Biden can.

[last1standing]

28. I don't hate it at all. They're right on this.

Extremely lowered expectations and a format that is set up for talking points could make palin seem far more intelligent than she is. We shouldn't fall into the M$M trap.

[Captiosus]

21. My 2 cents

Prepping for a debate for a state gubernatorial contest is far, far different than president or vice-president.

Let's compare for a second. Governors have to debate mostly state domestic issues. Things like transportation, education and budget. Governors have a very limited range within these "shared" topics. Debating about building and repairing roads for a state is vastly different to debating about repairing the entire federal interstate infrastructure.

So while she may be able to hold her own on domestic issues, and maybe somewhat in the budget realm, she doesn't show the depth of knowledge beyond being a Governor. She hasn't, in any interview, begun to think on topics on a National scale.

She's going to torpedo herself because she's playing well out of her league. She can't even answer interview questions with no time limits. Just try to picture her answering ANY of Lehrer's lead questions last night without completely stumbling through the two minutes grasping at a half ass answer.

[last1standing]

26. That's the problem. She doesn't have to talk for 2 minutes.

At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin, and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, the advisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.

McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely on the defensive.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/20/173616/130/161/604948

Short answers are easy when you're spouting memorized talking points. She'll spend the entire time mouthing the words "America good/Democrats bad". That might not appeal to us but we have no idea how it will go over with independent voters.

[Captiosus]

34. Here's the format as reported

Both sides got what they wanted. Palin and Biden will each have 90 seconds to respond to questions, with a two-minute period for discussion between the candidates to follow.

Ok, it's not 120 seconds, so I stand corrected on that.

But she still has to respond to a single question for up to 90 seconds before passing off to Biden and vice versa. This is a mere 30 seconds shorter than the lead question setup from last night's debate where Obama and McCain had up to 2 minutes to respond to the lead question.

Here's the thing: McCain could have done the same thing you're talking about. He could have spent 30 seconds reciting talking points and then yielded the floor to Obama. He didn't, and I don't expect Palin will either. No matter how much they prep her, I predict she's going to get up there, realize she's on a big stage and meander through her 90 second original response time on each and every question asked. Then she'll look like a complete bumbling idiot when she has the opportunity to respond during the 2 minute response time.

[last1standing]

36. The difference is that mcsame thought he was in the superior position.

Palin won't have that misconception. The entire repub strategy for palin at this point is to limit the damage she causes when she opens her mouth. If they can score a "victory" by merely having her recite repub talking points then making some smarmy, hateful jab at Obama in her rebuttals, they'll happily do that.

The only question is whether that will be seen as a win by uncommitted voters and neither of us can answer that till the post-debate polls come in.

[Mad_Dem_X]

31. "out of her league" - exactly

She may be a decent Governor, but that doesn't mean she has what it takes to be a Vice President!

[TuxedoKat]

27. I have the utmost confidence

that Joe will know exactly how to handle this debate.

[last1standing]

29. UGH! Once again, this isn't about Biden. It's about lowered expectations.

Right now the bar is set so low that it's almost impossible for palin to lose, regardless of what Joe does. We shouldn't fall for it.

[TuxedoKat]

38. Yes, I realize that

and agree with you. They have not only lowered the bar for Palin they've buried it. I still think Joe will be able to take all of this into account though and still come out if not ahead, at least to what's considered a draw.

[last1standing]

39. And Palin wins a draw. Hell! She even wins with a lose at this point.

It's like that cousin of yours that never did anything good with his life and spent most of his time on welfare,then all of a sudden he get a job as a ditch digger. It may not be much, but all of a sudden your relatives are talking better about him than they do about his executive brother. Palin will benefit from the same low expectations. It's prodigal son syndrome - those who accomplish the least get the most benefit from the little they do.

There's not much Biden can do against that if even DU is willing to let the media frame it that way.

[TuxedoKat]

43. You're probably right...

but maybe Obama/Biden et al have a surprise in store for us. At least that's what I'm hoping for!

[last1standing]

54. Don't expect surprises from "No Drama" Obama.

He's more about responsible leadership, not Hail Mary passes in order to gain attention.

[Mad_Dem_X]

30. You make a good point

I think Biden needs to focus on the issues and really hammer away Palin's lack of experience, really bring it home how unprepared she really is.

[last1standing]

32. Joe's making all the right moves and I'm sure he'll continue that.

Unfortunately, too many even here at DU, aren't listening to him when he talks about palin being a good debater. He understands how important expectations are.

[nc4bo]

33. How can anyone be as unqualified "sounding" as Sarah Palin?

Why has it been allowed to become a national joke? The Mccain campaign HAD to know how most Americans would perceive the Gibson and Couric interviews. What if her recent interviews and pressers are meant to lower expectations to sub dirt level?

I cringe every time she opens her mouth. Nearly anybody with 2 brain cells cringes in disbelief and horror that SHE could be POTUS. Is she really *that* ignorant or is this part of the repuke game plan leading up to the debates?

:shrug:

This is all going to be very interesting.

[HughMoran]

35. Yes, if she doesn't start weeping and run away, it's gonna be called a tie

Let's NOT get our expectations up here!!

[wildeyed]

37. The debate clips I saw from her gubernatorial campaign, she looked pretty good.

Her recent interviews, not so much. So it is hard for me to decide how she will perform on Thursday. But you are right, debate expectations are so low for her right now, if she doesn't drool on herself on camera, she will be trumpeted as victorious by the t-heads.

[last1standing]

40. It's a shame to see so many here at DU falling for it, isn't it?

I posted this earlier today:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7219472

I'm willing to bet that we see a repeat of it during the VP debate. The only question is whether the post-debate polls will swing out way when expectations are so extremely low. :shrug:

[wildeyed]

45. People like rooting for their guy.

The problem is, they get their expectations so impossibly high, that when their guy turns out not to be a man or woman of steel and makes a gaffe, they fall apart.

Before last night, I already knew that McCain was a good debator. He may not be the deepest guy on the planet, but he gets off some very effective, snappy one liners that make great sound bites. Obama can be windy at times. So last night I was pleasantly surprised at how concise Obama was and that McCain didn't get off any body blows.

If Palin stays on message and manages to look scrappy and cute at the same time, the MSM will hurt itself fawning all over her. Beware.

[Realityhack]

56. Yep.

Honestly with the expectations as they are it is staked 100:1 in her favor.

It is all about image and she can do that even if she doesn't have a single coherent thought.

[onenote]

41. if you've ever prepped a witness for a trial or a hearing,

You'd know that even a really bad witness can, with appropriate prep, get by. You need to find their comfort zone and have them stick with it, no matter what. My bet is that what the mccain/palin folks are going to try to do with palin. She won't look like she knows a lot, but she won't look like a total doofus either. They will try to make her look "likable".

[wildeyed]

42. That's basically what Bush did.

Stayed on message No. Matter. What. People eat it up.

[jillan]

44. Biden, on CNN last nite, said that he expects Palin to be a great debator.

I don't think he is laughing his way to Thurs nite at all.

[last1standing]

49. I never said he was.

In fact, that's the exact opposite of what I've been saying. Sadly, Biden seems to be about the only one taking this debate seriously and not acting like palin will walk on stage and start singing "I'm a Little Teapot".

[jillan]

50. I know - I was agreeing with you, and people that think Thursday is going to be a cakewalk are sadly

mistaken.

All eyes are going to be on Biden, not Palin. Was Biden sexist? Did he talk down to her? Did he make a gaffe? The pundits are going to put Biden under a microscope waiting to pounce on him
All at the same time nobody will expect anything from Palin.

That said, Biden will do great, but I don't expect him to have another "a noun, a verb and 9/11" moment. I'm thinking he will play this very focused - not taking any chances for controversy.

[last1standing]

52. Sorry, I'm getting defensive here with so few understanding what I'm talking about.

Some think that palin's going to walk onstage and vomit all over the moderator while the rest seem to think Biden's so brilliant he can make palin concede the election by the power of his rhetoric. Neither is going to happen because the format won't allow it.

My guess is that the post debate spin will be that maybe palin is more intelligent than the "rabid left" gives her credit for. Then we'll have another couple of weeks in which palin pulls mcsame's numbers up. Of course before the debate it'll be all about what Biden will do and after they'll forget about him completely.

I hope I'm wrong, but that's what I'm seeing as the buildup right now. :shrug:

[jillan]

57. Me too, and I took comfort last nite seeing that Joe is taking this seriously.

If the Palin from the repug convention shows up, Biden will have his hands full.


ya know - it's not to Biden's benefit that so many are saying this will be a cakewalk.
Those that are doing it are putting the bar up a little high for Joe.

[Fire1]

47. And if they put another screw up in the

white house, they deserve what they get, AGAIN.

[last1standing]

51. Who's "THEY"? As far as I'm concerned it's "US".

I have to live with the consequences of this election and I'd prefer we not give it to McInsanity & Gidget.

[retread]

48. Really? In what regard, Charlie? n/t

[Realityhack]

53. Well put. n/t

[RiverStone]

55. I agree - never underestimate the stupidy of almost 1/2 the electorate

Shrub stole the election in 2000 and started an immoral war, and people still voted for him again. :mad:

I'm confident Obama/Biden will win --- but I dare not get complacent for a second. I'd like to see at least a 10 point poll of polls lead going into election day (will serve to balance out the voting machines).

[Erin Elizabeth]

58. This is all he has to do:

be sort of smiley and gracious but let him get in a lot of zingers that don't hit her PERSONALLY but that hit at the last eight years HARD HARD HARD.

No eye-rolling, no sighing (but I don't think he's really prone to that anyway).

That way, no one ends up feeling sorry for her, Biden looks both gracious and strong, and she ends up looking like her stupid self.

[SmileyRose]

60. Ya, I don't think she'll belch the alphabet for us.

[crazy_vanilla]

61. LOL, "stand up and not wet himself"

:rofl:

[Jennicut]

62. The expectations for Bush vs Gore are totally different then Biden vs Palin

Bush was seen as a fun guy and was governor for 8 years of a big state with a big population. He was also the son of a president. Bush gave tons of interviews and did not read off of q-cards during them! Yes, he messes up his speech alot and he is a total jerk but Palin is the most inexperienced and underqualified candidate for VP or prez that I have ever seen. I saw her debate and was not impressed. Her debate answers may fly in Alaska but this is the big stage. Yes, she will speak coherently and may even have some points down and stuff memorized but Joe has been debating people for 35 years starting with running for Senate. I don't think this will be a problem. As far as her being a woman goes, he debates woman in the Senate all the time and I think everyone knows from watching Poppy Bush in 1984 that being condescending to a woman when debating them is not a good thing to do. He will be fine.