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"As he has so many times in his political career, Sen. John McCain took a major risk in jumping into the Washington bailout negotiations -- going so far as to say that if a deal hadn't been reached by Friday, he'd skip that night's presidential debate.
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How exactly that gamble affects his campaign won't be clear for many days. If the Republican candidate is seen as having had a strong performance at the University of Mississippi, that could overshadow the jockeying that preceded the event. And if the bailout talks conclude successfully, he may share credit in getting the deal done.
For now, McCain aides said he didn't reverse himself. By Friday morning, they said there was "significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement," and that was good enough for him get on his plane, "Straight Talk Air," for a flight to Mississippi by early afternoon. (See the text of McCain's statement.)
But many political analysts see it in simpler terms. Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama made clear he'd show up in Oxford, Miss., with or without Sen. McCain. "He blinked," said Ed Sarpolus, an independent pollster in Michigan, of the Republican. "He knew there was no deal to take credit for, so he took the easy way out."
And in American politics, candidates who blink, or waffle, or flip-flop, often pay a price. Democrats were quick to ridicule Sen. McCain's back-and-forth. But even some Republicans cringed at how the week played out for their standard-bearer.
"I think he was hoping they could get a deal done and he would be in a position by his return, legitimately or otherwise, to be able to take credit for it," said Chip Felkel, a longtime Republican strategist in South Carolina. "I think they may have overcalculated a bit."
It was in many ways vintage McCain when he vowed Wednesday to suspend his campaign and return to Washington to help put together a bailout package. He has put himself into tricky policy situations before, arguing for more troops in Iraq, for instance, when the war was deeply unpopular. He took on comprehensive immigration reform in 2007 even as his political advisers warned that he would pay a steep price with Republican primary voters, which he did.
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Often, Sen. McCain has taken rebellious positions that ran against the base of his party -- on issues including campaign finance, torture and stem-cell research. But in recent months, he has brought his policies into closer alignment with the party's base on taxes, immigration and other issues. And this week, he was sympathetic to calls from conservatives in the House for major changes to the bailout legislation.
McCain aides say he was simply doing what was needed to get a deal done, and when he left Washington for Mississippi, talks including all parties were under way.
The events show, again, that Sen. McCain isn't afraid to make high-risk moves, as evidenced most recently by his choice of the untested but fresh-faced Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Asked in an interview with NBC News Thursday whether, "if you were a betting man," he would bet on attending the debate, Sen. McCain replied with a laugh, "Well, I am a betting man."
His career, launched in the cockpit of a Navy jet, backs that up.
Joint Statement From Obama and McCainVote: Should candidates debate Friday?Wash Wire: Obama's Case for DebatingWash Wire: McCain's Call Meets ResistanceStatement: McCain Seeks Debate DelayJournal Topics: Obama | McCainCommunity: The presidential debatesAs with his choice of Gov. Palin, the move Wednesday again put Sen. McCain behind the driver's seat of the news, as Sen. Obama played a largely passive role. The Democratic candidate also returned to Washington after President George W. Bush called them to a high-profile White House meeting. But from the start, Sen. Obama deferred to the negotiators on Capitol Hill working to hammer out a deal.
Not so for Sen. McCain, who set himself up as a leader who could break the logjam.
After the talks fell apart Thursday, McCain advisers were pressed Friday to say just what Sen. McCain had accomplished with all the drama. They replied that he had successfully persuaded the House minority leader to send a negotiator in to talks with others congressional leaders. It was perhaps an important development, but not the dramatic saving-of-the-day that the candidate set up.
The question for Sen. McCain is how it will all play outside the capital. Most voters don't follow the political twists and turns that become the obsession of the Washington media. Some Republicans say Sen. McCain played his cards right. "It looks very good from here," said John Hancock, former executive director of the Missouri Republican Party. "I think he came out of this situation looking much more presidential, much more engaged in problem solving."
Others were more concerned.
Matt Reisetter, a Republican activist in Iowa, said that he might "sacrifice an appendage" to keep Sen. Obama from winning the election, but he is disappointed that Sen. McCain decided to attend the debate after promising not to.
Mr. Reisetter said he was "excited" by the initial announcement because "here's someone who's going to put America above politics." But he doesn't think it's time for Sen. McCain to abandon his approach. "If you're going to suspend your campaign, stick to your guns until this is resolved or don't come out and say that.""
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