Round One: Obama! - Democratic Underground

H2O Man

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Sat Sep-27-08 10:13 AM
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Round One: Obama!

A prize fighter in a corner is told
Hit where it hurts for silver and gold
Silver and gold …..
--U2; Silver and Gold; from Rattle and Hum

{1} I scored the first round of the Barack Obama versus John McCain debates for Obama. Before we take a look at why, I think that it is interesting to note that more of the journalists on the cable news shows were correctly comparing the debate to a boxing match, rather than other analogies that are far less accurate. Both Obama and McCain are boxing fans, and each identifies Muhammad Ali as their favorite fighter. Thus, I was pleased when both Chris Matthews and Patrick Buchanan compared Obama’s performance last night to Ali.

Now let’s take a brief look at how political debates are "scored."

{2} I frequently talk about the "three groups" in any and every political contest. It is a model that I was taught decades ago, and which is useful for any person who is either actively engaged on some level in a campaign, or who is simply watching from the sidelines. It’s interesting to note that Chris Matthews includes this model as one of the most important lessons taught by those who head up the national campaigns out of Washington, DC (see "Life’s a Campaign"; Random House; 2007).

The three groups are: {a} those who always support you; {b} those who always oppose you; and {c} the undecided, who tend to decide every close election.

In the Obama vs McCain campaign, most of the polls indicate that going into the debate, that Obama had a lead. It was not a huge lead, but it was still a significant lead, largely because it was closely related to the current economic crisis. Thus, last night’s debate was aimed largely at the Group C "undecided" voters, in hopes of increasing Obama’s lead.

Within Group C, there are three important, sometimes overlapping, sub-groups. These include independents, democrats, and women. Each of the three sub-groups had identified two questions that were important to them: first, which candidate was most capable of dealing with the economic problems facing our country; and second, is Barack Obama qualified to serve as our President, especially in the context of Commander-in-Chief?

{3} Now let’s take a ringside seat. We won’t sit with the Obama fans, or the McCain fans. Instead, we will look at this through the eyes of the Group C people. Keep in mind that all of the Group C people were wondering earlier in the day if John McCain was going to enter the ring, or try to postpone the fight.

This first debate was supposed to be about foreign policy. This has been advertised as McCain’s strongest area. However, the economic crisis was the first topic of discussion. For more than twenty minutes, it was obvious that McCain was ill at ease. He sounded nervous when he spoke, and had difficulty finding the words to express himself. Obama was confident and articulate. He spoke about McCain’s supporting the policies of the Bush administration, which have contributed to the crisis, 90% of the time.

McCain never said the words "middle class." He said he would likely place a freeze on all non-military spending. Obama spoke of main street concerns, including education.

When the debate turned to foreign policy, the Group C people wanted to see if McCain would overpower Obama, or if the younger fighter could hold his own. David Gergen said afterward that McCain was not able to score the points he needed to during these exchanges. This was, of course, a common experience for those who fought Muhammad Ali: they went into the fight thinking they could hit Ali, but found out it was nearly impossible inside the ring.

{4} The most important punch in boxing is the jab. Those who follow the sport of boxing know that there are actually several variations of that punch – the jab can be a defensive or offensive weapon, it can be used to measure distance, and it can be used to stun the opposition. But everything starts with the jab. So, in the first round of any fight, a boxer begins with the jab.

Group C spectators saw Obama measuring McCain with some early jabs. Then, he began to snap McCain’s head back with hard jabs, when he nailed his slower opponent with comments about Spain, "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran," four errors McCain made on the invasion of Iraq, and then a quote about our not needing to concentrate on Afghanistan.

{5} The Group C people saw McCain becoming angry, frustrated, and refusing to look at Barack Obama. They heard him repeatedly saying that Obama "just doesn’t understand," and then heard Obama’s responses that proved he absolutely grasped the complex world we live in. A CNN group, which included both democrats and republicans, reacted negatively when McCain brought up the POW bit; it seems likely that the majority of Group C people also viewed this as a cheap attempt to exploit his military experiences.

The polls on CNN and MSNBC, like all polls, represent a snapshot of a constantly changing public perception of the election contest. Yet a few things stood out. Among the Group C people responding, almost twice as many thought Obama won than McCain. Women favored Obama by about 61% to 39%. People over 55 years of age, who tend to vote conservatively, actually found Obama to be more able to represent their economic concerns than McCain. Finally, when asked which candidate they thought would win in November, 65% said Obama.

Finally, in the televised coverage after the debate, Group C saw Joseph Biden speaking about Obama, and Rudy 9/11 speaking for McCain. Where was Sarah?

This is why I think we can agree that Barack Obama won round one. Certainly, all of us wish that Obama hit McCain with one line or another. But this is a three round fight. Obama was not going to throw everything last night.

The debate increased interest in the election. The general public will be watching the next two rounds closely. More, this has stirred up interest in the "under card" bout, between Joseph Biden and Sarah Palin. So I leave you with this thought: one can easily imagine Joseph Biden keeping pace in a debate like last night’s ….but how do you imagine that Sarah Palin will do?