Daily Kos: Did McCain just give away Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio?

[Pirate Smile]

Did McCain just give away Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio?

by dhonig
Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:28:26 AM PDT

Last night John McCain said some amazing things. My personal favorite was his "League of Democracies." My first impression was cartoon characters meeting at their Secret Headquarters at the North Pole, and my second was "What the FUCK!??!? He wants a new alignment against China and Russia, against the Saudis and other oil countries?!!?!" But that's not what I want to write about here. What I want to write about here is his statement he would do away with ethanol subsidies.

For the record, I happen to agree. Ethanol is an economic and environmental disaster. But it has support for a very simple reason- politics. Guess who grows the most corn in the US? By the bushel:

Iowa 1,700,000,000
Illinois 1,600,000,000
Nebraska 1,100,000,000
Indiana 900,000,000
Minnesota 800,000,000
Ohio 400,000,000
Kansas 400,000,000
South Dakota 400,000,000
Missouri 300,000,000
Wisconsin 300,000,000

Take the flip to see something interesting.

dhonig's diary :: ::

I don't think it's going to make a lot of difference in Iowa or Illinois:

Iowa 1,700,000,000 bushels

SurveyUSA9/17-18/08 Obama 54, McCain 43

Illinois 1,600,000,000 bushels

Research 2000 9/15-18/08 Obama 56, McCain 36

Nebraska won't change much either:

Nebraska 1,100,000,000 bushels

ARG 9/12-17/08 McCain 60, Obama 34

But then it gets interesting:

Indiana 900,000,000 bushels

Rasmussen 9/17-18/08 McCain 49, Obama 47
Big Ten 9/14-17/08 McCain 47, Obama 43

Minnesota 800,000,000 bushels

Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post 9/14-21/08 McCain 45, Obama 47
ARG 9/18-20/08 McCain 47, Obama 48

Ohio 400,000,000 bushels

Rasmussen 9/23/08 McCain 47, Obama 46
InsiderAdvantage 9/22/08 McCain 46, Obama 46
FOX/Rasmussen 9/21/08 McCain 50, Obama 46

Missouri 300,000,000 bushels

SurveyUSA 9/23-24/08 McCain 48, Obama 46
Research 2000 9/22-24/08 McCain 47, Obama 46
Research 2000 9/15-18/08 McCain 49, Obama 45

Wisconsin 300,000,000 bushels

Research 2000 9/22-23/08 McCain 43, Obama 49
ARG 9/18-21/08 McCain 45, Obama 50

Let me talk for a minute about Indiana.

I live here. Indiana is an interesting place. It has one real city, Indianapolis. Obama will carry Indianapolis. It has one real suburban area, the doughnut around Indianapolis. McCain will carry the I-465 doughnut. It has a few other population pockets. One, Gary, is more Chicago and Illinois than Indiana, and it is Obama's. There are a few concentrated areas around schools, at South Bend (Notre Dame) and Bloomington (IU). There is one other relevant city, Fort Wayne. Otherwise, there is corn, corn, and more corn.

Just to give you some sense of the power and importance of corn here, I will get a little personal. I am one of those people who will actually pay MORE taxes under Obama's plan, and live in a house commensurate with that income. I am surrounded by similar houses to my left, my right, and across the street. What about behind me, you might ask. Well, no. Because behind me, in my back yard, in the middle of one of the wealthiest suburbs in the United States, is a corn field. When I take my kid to Tae Kwan Do I pass three corn fields in two miles. When I get on my bicycle and go for a ride it takes about ten minutes to get from suburb into nothing but corn as far as the eye can see. Corn is king. Corn corn corn corn corn. Indiana will be won, or lost, one corn field at a time.

Will we see Obama ads with that clip soon? Will the narrator seriously intone:

Bush/McCain policies left Indiana's economy in shambles. We have our highest unemployment since 9/11. At a time when our dependence upon foreign oil is both an economic and foreign policy threat to our well being, the first line of defense is Indiana farmers, working hard to replace foreign oil with home-grown alternative fuels. Barack Obama supports the work of Indiana farmers, the key to America's energy independence. But John McCain thinks now is the time to take a step back, to smother our alternative energy policy in its crib, instead of giving it the support it needs to grow and become self-sufficient, for the good of every Hoosier and every American.

Suddenly, and for the very first time, I think Obama really might have a serious chance of winning Indiana. And people, if Obama wins Indiana, well, this thing is a landslide.

Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama, debate, ethanol, corn, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/27/75340/5729/979/612266

[MNDemNY]

1. When he said that about the ethanol sub. I said to my wife, "He just gave away Iowa."

[Pirate Smile]

4. Iowans have known it from the caucuses both in 2000 and 2008 which one reason

why McCain is getting his ass handed to him in Iowa.

I'm not sure that people in other midwestern states were aware of it. They sure are know and it certainly is going to hurt him.

[Pirate Smile]

20. LOL - you can tell I typed that up quick and didn't proof read it.

:blush:

[renate]

10. I said that too (not to your wife, of course :) )

At first I thought it was a mistake, but he said it so deliberately I assumed there had to be a reason for it.

[bulloney]

15. The Repubs dropped support for the ethanol program in their convention platform.

When I heard the news earlier this month, I thought the same thing: McCain just alienated himself from farm belt states. However, I've known farmers to be the most masochistic people in this country. They piss and moan about farm and trade policy, but they overwhelmingly vote for the candidates who pass the policy they complain about.

They always bite that line about the Democrat taking away their right to own guns; they'll try to abort every fetus; they will force a gay to marry your son or daughter; or they'll tax you out of business. They have the Farm Bureau and their puppet commodity groups feeding them that bullshit 24/7.

[FatDave]

16. My experience in Iowa is that the farmers tend to lean Democrat

The rural areas go red because of the small towns, but the farmers know what side their bread is buttered on. Just the way it seems to me, I haven't exactly done a scientific study or anything.

[bunnies]

2. K & frigging R! I still cant believe McCain said that.

My first reaction last night was "He just lost the election". :bounce:

[ogneopasno]

3. He never had Minnesota.

Sure, it looks purple on a map...but he never had it.

[FatDave]

17. Never had Iowa either.

Indiana is his to lose though. Here's hoping.

[Odin2005]

29. MN is only "purple" because of dimwits in the outer-ring suburbs and ex-urbs.

Like the morans in Anoka and St. Cloud that voted in Michelle Bachmann.

[Thrill]

5. Get it in an ad.

[Pirate Smile]

7. Targeted ads would be perfect.

[1corona4u]

6. yeah, I thought that was a bad move on his part too, but good for us.

[Pirate Smile]

8. kick

[halobeam]

9. k and r....

[LiberalAndProud]

11. I was surprised he said it out loud.

[Bucky]

12. It would be nice, but honestly that ethanol subsidy is pure baloney.

You burn more fossil fuels in converting the corn to ethanol than you save by adding it to gasoline.

Plus the diversion of corn to fuel additives is driving up the price of food. It's a dumb policy.

[chiefofclarinet]

19. We (as in the chemists) are trying to fix that

Yes, the current system is a waste. However, the biochemists/organic chemists are doing research in converting cellulose and other plant matter into ethanol or biodiesel. Once we get that breakthrough, we have the infrastructure so that ethanol (or biodiesel) can be sent to the general public almost immediately.

I don't know when it will be ready, but I am confident that we will be generating an energy profit from fuels from plant matter very soon.

[hedgehog]

23. That's my understanding, but my husband points out tha the mash left over after making alcohol is

a better food for cattle than raw corn.

[Pirate Smile]

13. kick

[WillyT]

14. Off To The Greatest Page !!!

:kick:

[Hope And Change]

18. K & R!

[Kolesar]

21. Obama's logo is a corn field

I always thought that Obama's messaging was very Midwestern. I have a hard time putting my finger on exactly what he is doing. He talks about the Great Lakes very effectively, but I think that he has the message of humility and generousity in there somewhere.

[Odin2005]

30. Ha! Good observation of the "O" logo! n/t.

[crazy_vanilla]

22. I hope the above states were REALLY listening

[grantcart]

24. We googled the same corn statistics lol by the way those numbers are from 2001

The Ethanol Gaffe - could lose the election on this one thing alone

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7215888




and here is the polling in swing states

[LynneSin]

25. I posted the same thing 2 minutes after he said it

I think we can all agree that ethanol subsidies are not working HOWEVER that money is going to voters in the corn belt who would beg to differ.

I would like for us to revisit the ethanol subsidies and find another way we can rework it so we don't hurt our farmers. But just coming out and saying we should get rid of corn subsidies is going to hurt in the cornbelt.

A smart 527 will take a clip of that add and playing it non-stop in the cornbelt states. That's gonna hurt McCain.

[chiefofclarinet]

27. Agreed

As an Iowan, and as a chemist, I have more at stake in the corn-based ethanol debate than most do. I do agree that the current system isn't working great. About the only good thing that we have that is positive, besides the money coming into the state, is some infrastructure ready for when a breakthrough comes around.

The best solution, in my mind, is funding more research on biofuels. Giving more grant money for research in this field will accelerate the process. The ultimate goal is discovering a way of taking farm waste (like the corn stalks) and converting it into ethanol or biodiesel. Nature has mechanisms of converting both cellulose to glucose (bacterial enzymes) and glucose to ethanol (anaerobic respiration in yeast), which means it is feasible for this to happen.

Funding biofuels, as Obama wants, will help the country in the long haul. But, for the short term, we need Obama to get into the White House. I agree that we should pummel the heaviest agricultural states (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Kansas) with an ad showing McCain's disapproval of ethanol subsidies. We could turn the entire Midwest blue, just on one McCain gaffe.

[Laelth]

26. On this point, McCain is right.

Bio-fuels are not the solution to our energy problems, and our subsidizing bio-fuels has enriched the big agricultural firms immensely while helping to cause a global food crisis.

It is a scam. It's yet another Republican give-away to the rich (even if a few small farmers also benefit). Of course, I won't be upset if McCain's position on this issue contributes to his defeat, but I also think he is right on this issue.

-Laelth


cross-posted from this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7215888

[Odin2005]

28. Minnesooohhhta was never in play for McLame.

Us MN Dems made sure of THAT!

[Yuugal]

31. McCain didn't have ethanol when he was a POW

:rofl:

[Pirate Smile]

32. kick