Saturday Morning Data Dump – 9/27 - Men and Seniors switch to Obama

[phrigndumass]

(See last week’s Data Dump)


This is a weekly (or whenever the mood strikes me) summary of the gender, age and ethnicity crosstabs from the polls. The chart above tallies the crosstabs from the state polls, while the graphs below are derived from national poll crosstabs (not the daily trackers). When combined, these give us a good idea of the national picture, or the popular vote, and how it could change with projected increases in voter turnout for certain demographic groups, such as young voters, minority voters and female voters.

The overall Popular Vote total from the state polls shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 0.8%, or 48.2% to 47.4% (see the blue widget at the top of this post). But when we look at the state poll crosstabs for gender, the popular vote changes to a lead of 0.9% for Obama (up from 0.1% last week). The state poll crosstabs for age show a lead of 1.3% for Obama (up from 0.4% last week), and the state poll crosstabs for ethnicity put Obama’s lead at 1.6% (up from 0.7% last week) nationwide.

The reason these demographic percentages change is that we are projecting an increase in voter turnout this year among young people, females, African-Americans and Latinos. The pollsters haven’t worked these demographic increases into their polling methodology yet, but they will (hopefully) when voter registration deadlines have passed next month.


GENDER CROSSTABS


The women’s vote is holding strong for Obama. The male vote last week was opening a wider gap for McCain, but this week the male vote turns completely around and switches to Obama. What a difference one week can make!











ETHNICITY CROSSTABS


Last week I mentioned that the number to watch for Obama in the white voter demographic is 40%. If he is able to sustain polling of 40% among white voters, then voting among other ethnic groups will put him over the top in the popular vote in November. This week Obama’s poll numbers among white voters have shot up 5% to about 43% nationwide. And he is also extending his lead among other ethnic groups as well this week.














AGE CROSSTABS


Last week Obama led in every age group between 18 and 34, while McCain led in every age group over 35. This week Obama steals the lead in the age 40 to 44 group, the age 65 to 74 group, and the age 75 and Up group. And he is trailing by 1% or less in all the remaining age groups. Retired voters view the economy on a very real and personal level, and when there’s a nightmare revealed in the markets, it directly affects their ability to afford the cost of living.






































(edited for title change)

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[Demeter]

1. Good Morning, P-Man! Such Pretty Graphs Today!

It's all over but the cheating. Perhaps that's over, too. If they can't come up with enough money to pull a fest one, we might get an honest election!

I am hoping that this whole bailout idea sinks like a stone in the swamp, too.

[phrigndumass]

3. "It's all over but the cheating" LOL!

:rofl:

I have a sinking feeling the republicans are sitting on a mountain of money and they're waiting to spend it at the right time when our bank account is low :crazy:

But I really do like where we're at now! :D

How's that for bipolar?

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

11. I Know the Feeling!

It's was the best of times, it was the worst of times...but this is the only time we have, so make every moment count, and try to have some fun. And win one against the Gipper!

[fight4my3sons]

2. Good morning!

I couldn't imagine anyone not turning their vote around after McCain's bizarre antics the past week!

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

4. The fundamentals of the economy are strong, lol

It's the working folks, they're resilient! See? I can take away all their money and they'll still keep working! Sometimes two or three jobs! It's a unique American story! Now watch while I take away their jobs, too! The military is still there! Work for Uncle Sam! It's the only job left, unless you're a CEO!

It's like God and Satan teaming up to inflict boils and leprosy on Job and take away all his furniture, lol ...

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[Coexist]

6. Obama supporters are still fired up!

they'll show up.

[FrenchieCat]

5. Looking Mucho Gusto!

[phrigndumass]

7. Good morning, Frenchie :)

:hi:

[FrenchieCat]

9. Good Morning to you too!

Looks like word of that 50th year AARP appearance has made it's rounds.....

Good News! :hi:

[AzNick]

19. Hey there fellow Frenchman

I saw your post the other day, to answer your question I come from the Paris area, departement de l'Essonne.

Now, I know that French Americans represent only a small proportion of the different sub-groups among whites, I still wonder how most of them intend to vote on November 4.

[Wednesdays]

8. Wow! Look how McSame's numbers among seniors tanked

over the last month. That's the demographic he absolutely must keep to have any chance at winning.

[phrigndumass]

12. It's the economy, and McCain can't be trusted with money :)

:donut: Good morning, Wednesdays! :hi:

[CitizenLeft]

10. loving those numbers!

So, Obama caught him and PASSED him in the over-65's? Outstanding! :applause:

[phrigndumass]

13. And the other age groups aren't far behind ...

Obama trails by 1% or less in the age groups he's losing at the moment. If things keep going like this, we'll have a sweep among the age groups soon :)

:donut: Good morning, CitizenLeft! :hi:

[CitizenLeft]

14. good morning, PD!

You continue to awe and inspire! Not kidding, you're awesome with these numbers. Whenever one of those "ew" polls come out, your posts always make me feel better! :hi:

[Lochloosa]

15. Now those are some fine looking graphs.

[Bucky]

16. C'mon, white people! Let's get our shit together here!

Obama needs us! Start thinkin' you goofy whiteys!

[Curtland1015]

17. The news just keeps getting better!

Good morning Phrig!

[AzNick]

18. 80% Whites? No way....!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racial_demographics_of_the_United_States#Projections

Non-hispanic whites: 68%
Hispanic: 15%
African Americans: 12%
Asian Americans: 5%

How can you explain a 17% different from .68 to .80?

Unless you consider that half of the Hispanics are unable to vote (we know they represent the largest group among illegals, but still...)...

How about the Asians group? How are they voting?

I have a strong feeling that Obama is leading among ALL the minority groups.

[grantcart]

21. You are correct that Obama has a big lead with Hispanics

Hispanics - the figure you cite is a census figure not a 'eligible to vote' figure.

Your percentage includes illegal immigrants as well as factoring in children who obviously cannot vote.

Your own article makes that argument


The spectacular growth of the Hispanic population through immigration and higher birth rates are noted as a partial factor for the US’ population gains in the last quarter-century. The Bureau of the Census projects that by 2050 one-quarter of the population will be Hispanic.<17><30> Bureau figures show the U.S. population grew by 2.8 million between July 1, 2004, and July 1, 2005.<31> Hispanics accounted for 1.3 million of that increase

[DesertRat]

20. k&r

[grantcart]

22. I still think that the age demographics are pointing to a much bigger lead for Obama

he has big leads in a number of demographics and is only just behind in a coupld of others - he should be showing a 7-8 point lead at this time.

[bleever]

23. He's tanking most in his own age group!

Over the last ten days, at least.

Maybe he reminds those folks of certain people they know from the homeowners' association.

[Ichingcarpenter]

24. kick nominated.....most excellent as normal n/t

[Demeter]

25. Found Another Tasty Little Tidbit For You, P-Man!

(I feel like the cat, bringing in a freshly-killed mouse for the Master)

http://mediacurves.com/

I can't figure out how to find the permalink, but the article in question is called:

2008 Debate Results dated Friday, Sept. 26th.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

26. Wow! Those senior numbers are awesome!

McFuckstick is toast if that keeps up! :woohoo: