Debates are generally defined by one event.

Drunken Irishman

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Sep-27-08 01:09 AM
Original message

Debates are generally defined by one event.

Edited on Sat Sep-27-08 01:14 AM by Drunken Irishman

Something that may fly under the radar to most viewers, but then gets a ton of scrutiny when the media harps on it.

In 2000, it was Gore entering Bush's personal space, which looked awkward and Bush, unfortunately, responded great, with a slight nod of the head. Gore also stumbled with the annoying sighs. While they didn't change the race, they've become the defining moment of the 2000 debates. No one remembers that public polls after each debate showed Gore won the first and third. What they do remember is that he became a real life SNL skit.

In 1992, it was Bush glancing at his watch. I bet many Americans didn't even realize what he was doing, but it got a lot of play and essentially ended any comeback hopes by reinforcing how out of touch he was.

In 1988, it was Dukakis' calculated answer to the question about his wife being raped and murdered. Had Dukakis answered that with emotion, slamming the question as completely over the line, he probably would have scored a ton more points. But that became the narrative and it hurt his chances, even though most voters by an overwhelming margin thought he won both debates.

In 1984, Reagan stumbled badly in his first debate with Mondale, nearly giving away the entire election with a confused final ramble. Mondale's misfortune was agreeing to a second debate, as Reagan had a canned line about Mondale's experience ready to go at the beginning, slamming Mondale and regaining control of the narrative and subsequently the election.

In 1980, it was the "There you go again..." Reagan line, coupled with the question asking if Americans were better off than they were four years ago. This damaged Carter and turned a very tight race into a Reagan blowout.

In 1976, Carter was in trouble. He was slipping nationally, Ford had outperformed him in the first debate and had all the momentum heading into the final stretch of the campaign. However, in the second debate, Ford stumbled probably more than any candidate ever could. He said there was no Soviet control of Eastern Europe. His momentum stalled and Carter barely won. Had that not happened, Ford probably carries the momentum back into the White House.

The point, these debates have one moment that everyone remembers. Since the debates are often long, Americans forget much of what is said even hours after the debate ends, but they don't forget these little things. Tonight, McCain not even giving Obama a glance, his weird grin and hunched over look will be the narrative. This is what people will discuss the rest of the week, how cold and mean and disrespectful he looked toward Obama. To many voters, that will be a turnoff because it plays into McCain's biggest weakness, the fact he's perceived to be an angry man. Moreover, it undercuts his likeability factor, which has always been higher than other candidates.

What voters will take from this is that Obama looked presidential, calm and sincere. McCain looked lifeless, trollish and disrespectful. Not the image they want, especially when it comes to those suburban soccer moms everyone thought McCain could lock up. McCain lived up to the stereotype that he's the angry old man who lives down the street and yells at the kids to get off his lawn. That is not the image McCain wants because it won't win over moderate voters looking for responsibility, security and most importantly, calmness in the face of trouble.