CNNHD Audience Reaction Meter: I monitored it the entire debate

[Greyskye]

And made comments in the Debate Threads.

For the most part, Independents are the only group that really matter in these situations. Except for those cases when the Democrats or Republicans crossed the line into positive territory while the opposing candidate was speaking.

And that happened.

For the most part, both the Dems and Repubs were predictably partisan. There were occasions on both sides where the audience had positive reactions to the opposing candidate, although it definitely happened more often with the Republican audience going positive for Obama. This almost invariably happened when Obama was making specific policy points, and it happened on multiple occasions.

Back to the Independents. They liked Obama showing his knowledge, and outlining policies. They hated McCain's condescending remarks towards Obama.

Overall, Independents instant reactions appeared to fairly obviously favor Obama.

I finished watching, and was surprised it was over so quickly - guess I was a bit engrossed. I felt that Obama was a clear winner - which was why I was so surprised when the first 3 or 4 pundits I saw were calling it for McCain.

I certainly hope that the masses don't let the talking heads sway their opinion. :banghead:

[deadparrot]

1. You're right...

The color on the TV we were watching was so bad that I wasn't sure if there *was* a separate line for independents, that's how closely tied to Democrats they were.

[EV_Ares]

2. The way I am seeing this is that it has to be clear Obama won because the public

polls are seeing it that way by a pretty wide margin, CNN and MSNBC Newsvine polls, Obama is the winner by large margins. The fact that CNN and MSNBC seem to want to turn it into a tie, indicates an Obama win and that would be on a night when it is supposed to be the subject of McCain's strong suit.

[Kdillard]

3. Clear Obama win. The indies hated Mccain and the polls are going

all Obama's way unless they have been freeped.

[Clio the Leo]

4. Yep, I agree completely and the BEST part.....

.... was when the blue (dem) and green (indi.) lines SORED (and the red was not too far behind) near the end when Barack talked about how our REAL problems with foreign policy are rooted in the fact that the rest of the world hates us ..... and it was his plan to restore our reputation once he became president.

And that ......... my friends ..... is the core reason why I am voting for Barack Obama.

[krkaufman]

25. I also noticed, at the end, that the lines all sank when McCain attacked Obama directly ...

... saying her wasn't ready. That didn't go over well, at all, with the crowd -- even the Red line sank. That tells me that the whole crowd respected Obama by the end. McCain could be in trouble.

[neverforget]

5. Was it just me or did others have a hard time seeing the blue line?

I was watching it in HD

:shrug:

[Greyskye]

9. It was faint

And that's on a color calibrated 50" plasma.

One thing that kept happening was that Independents and Democrats were trending really, really closely for a good portion of the debate. When that happened the Ind and Dem lines tended to bleed into each other.

[milkyway]

31. The blue line was frequently merged with the green line, creating a light aqua line--that's a very

good thing!

(because it's light and not ink, when two lines were the same, they formed a line lighter than either of the two).

[RamboLiberal]

6. Over on Daily Kos they agree with you assesment

If you're watching the debate on CNN, they have a "dial" reaction chart on the bottom of the screen. If the audience likes what the candidate is saying, they dial up and the lines go up. If they don't, they dial down and the numbers tank.

Generally speaking, independents (and obviously Democrats) are registering far more positives for Obama than McCain. Indeed, at certain points, the numbers among indys have taken a nosedive when McCain sets forth Bush's his policy proposals.

McCain's goal in these debates is to win over independents. Without them, he just can't win. Any independent watching McCain repeat Palinized talking points and GOP bluster is unlikely to be won over by this performance.

------------

Do you think independents are attracted to smirks, snark, and childish insults? (see Exhibit A, indy approval ratings of Palin, Sarah).

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/26/221959/500/310/611926

[4_Legs_Good]

7. Thanks for the analysis!!!

:)

[crazy_vanilla]

8. thank you, I am glad Independents swayed toward Obama

Oh yeah, and McTurd repeated that stupid "I got a pen" line :hurts: that was so lame to begin with.

[Canuckistanian]

10. What was the pen thing about?

I missed the first few minutes.

[RNdaSilva]

19. Pen = Veto

[Canuckistanian]

23. Ah, I get it

Thanks.

[krkaufman]

26. I howled at McCain's pen comment. I couldn't understand ...

... why he would say "it's an old pen." What a major blunder. I don't think McCain wants to remind people about the o-word.

[TexasObserver]

11. I agree with your assessment, having watched them, too.

1. They did not like either candidate attacking the other.

2. They did like demonstrations of thoughtful knowledge about a topic.

3. They did respond well to Obama's sweeping word pictures for his ideas.

4. They did not like McCain's whole Iraq schtick.

5. They were generally turned off by the whole Afghanistan topic.

6. They did not like McCain's bragging attempts.


The indies are there for the taking. The more McCain is McCain, the better we do. The more Obama is Obama, the better we do.

[Greyskye]

15. Perfect articulation of the major trends

They also had a negative reaction to McCain's reminder to us that he was a POW. :eyes:

[GhostofRichardRorty]

12. Independents are the only ones that matter at this point...

I watched the independent line quite closely the whole debate. There were times when they were clearly and strongly pro-Obama, and other times fairly strongly pro-McCain when he was at his best. But the most important thing I noticed was they NEVER went strongly *negative* on Obama, but they went strongly negative on McCain several times, especially when he talked about Iraq.

[Greyskye]

14. Exactly.

I noticed the same thing - the Indies never went sharply negative on Obama.

The other major trend that surprised me were the times when all three groups went positive Obama - always when he was laying out strong forward looking policy positions.

And welcome to DU! :hi:

[JimWis]

13. Thanks so much for the post and the others replying with info -

I tried to watch it as an independent and wondering how this affected them. But it's hard to watch it without prejudice, wanting Obama to win as bad as I do. Sounds like he did well with undecided voters.

[yardwork]

16. Most of the post-debate commentators on CBS said Obama won.

I wasn't watching MSNBC or Faux.

[Liberalboy]

17. I watched it too...

did you notice how often the Independents sided with the Democrats vs. the Republicans? The gap was significant too in certain areas.

[Greyskye]

22. That was really striking, wasn't it?

Those independent voters have a nose for bullshit, and react accordingly.

[AzNick]

18. Agreed. Independents = Dems at the end

I was flabbergasted. Towards the end of the debate, clearly the independents were pro-Obama and even when McCain tried to play the POW card, he flopped with everyone. The red line had a little jolt and that's it.

WOW!

[LonelyLRLiberal]

20. McCain has used up that POW card with voters, IMHO.

He brings that up WAY too often, and it has lost its emotional effect.

[krkaufman]

21. I was watching those lines down the stretch ...

... and it seemed like the audience REALLY did not like McCain's attacking Obama at the end, saying Obama wasn't ready. All the audience lines appeared to go dramatically negative.

[CitizenLeft]

24. their initial reaction (the pundits) may have been...

...calling it for McCain... but the tone has changed; it's now 12:17am, and it's now a slight consensus that Obama won, especially after that CBS poll came out (I was watching CNN most of the time, and their comments started to change over time).

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

27. One thing I noticed was that the indie line reacted strongly when

McCrabby made mistakes that to me, looked like he was old and doddering. I bet this is why there is zero pushback from the McDouchebagg campaign about the 527 cancer ad. People are seriously concerned with his health issues/age. Soon to come into more focus is McCrank's stellar VP fill-in, Mooseburgers.

[milkyway]

28. The one time McCain referenced Palin at 9:38pm, all 3 lines immediately dropped sharply. The Alaskan

Anchor is a heavy drag on the McCain campaign.

[Greyskye]

29. I missed that!

Great catch! :thumbsup:


:rofl:

[Pale Blue Dot]

30. Yep. And the polls afterwards have confirmed this.

Put a fork in McCain.

[milkyway]

32. Also, all 3 lines frequently flatlined when McCain spoke at length--everybody was bored and had no

reaction!

[Greyskye]

33. Very true

Grandpa's stories don't have the impact they used to.

[milkyway]

34. I was shocked when even the bracelet story didn't move the lines at all--he's overused that kind of

story so much that they lost their impact before the first debate took place.

[Greyskye]

35. They liked Obama's comeback though:

"I've got a bracelet too!"

:rofl:

[Greyskye]

36. mediacurves.com agrees with our observations

http://www.mediacurves.com/

Here is the first of their metrics:


And the last:


8 more at the link. Hint - Obama won every single one of them with Independents.

[gblady]

37. if this translates....

into votes....it's lookin' good.

[grantcart]

38. what I noticed was that the Dems and Independents were always close together

and the red was usually by it self and very flat -- even if it was way up high or down low it didn't move around much.