VA Rasmussen Obama +5 How Obama wins the election. VA

[PerfectSage]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Matching a trend seen in national polling, Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in Virginia over the past week as the Wall Street financial crunch has put economic concerns front and center.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. Last Sunday, McCain was up two points. The week before, the candidates were tied.

The way I see it Obama's got 269 EV's locked up and VA is the best bet to put him over 270


CNN electoral Map showing how Obama get's to 269.


Va is the best bet out of VA NH NV and OH.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Turn MN,WI and CO blue to get to 269 EV's.

538.com has a 69% Obama win percentage in VA. This +5 lead will make it better.



:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[Alhena]

1. They are voting RIGHT NOW in Virginia- cha ching!

[Alhena]

2. They are voting RIGHT NOW in Virginia- cha ching!

[CalGator]

3. NH is a pretty good bet too though, imo.

Although the polls of course got the primary in NH wrong, the numbers there do look good for Obama to take that state in the fall.

[PerfectSage]

4. Some NH polls today.

Strategic Vision New Hampshire Obama 46, McCain 45

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategicvision_mi_nh_92224.php


National Journal: New Hampshire 403 RV, 4.9% Obama 44, McCain 43

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nationaljournal_mi_nh_pa_91822.php


RCP NH poll average Obama +1.3

[PerfectSage]

5. Based on 538.com state win percentages. It's pretty easy for President Obama to pick up EV's

State/EV's/Win %/Running total
VT 3 100 3
MD 10 100 13
DC 3 100 16
HI 4 100 20
MA 12 99 32
RI 4 99 36
NY 31 99 67
DE 3 99 70
IL 21 99 91
CA 55 99 146
CT 7 98 153
WA 11 95 164
OR 7 95 171
IA 7 93 178
NJ 15 91 193
ME 4 89 197
WI 10 87 207
MN 10 87 217
NM 5 86 222
MI 17 84 239
CO 9 84 248
VA 13 79 261
PA 21 77 282
NV 5 58 287
NH 4 55 291
OH 20 51 311

< 50% win chance

FL 27 41 338
IN 11 36 349
NC 15 33 364
MO 11 30 375
LA 9 15 384
ND 3 13 387
GA 15 12 402
WV 5 12 407
MT 3 11 410
AR 6 9 416
TX 34 7 450
MS 6 7 456
AZ 10 5 466
SC 8 4 474
SD 3 4 477
AK 3 3 480
KY 8 2 488
KS 6 2 494
AL 9 1 503
TN 11 1 514
NE 5 1 519
UT 5 1 524
OK 7 0 531
ID 4 0 535
WY 3 0 538