We're now seeing the early stages of this drama. The economy suddenly takes a crap, with bank failures and such, and Bushco, having planned months in advance, rolls out his legislation on a Shock Doctrine wave, demanding dictatorial power and 700 billion bucks of taxpayer money, or DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! THE ECONOMY COLLAPSES!!!
The Democrats, and even some Republicans in Congress, wisely reject this first bill, demanding some oversight, and things like help for the middle class in the form of foreclosure reform (in other words, allow a bankruptcy or foreclosure judge to rewrite the mortgage so that payments are lower, interest hikes don't sent monthly payment amounts into the stratosphere, and generally make the mortgage sane enough that a normal person could pay it) as well as restricting bonuses and golden parachutes for executives of companies that have to be bailed out.
But just watch. The October Surprise is nothing other than a Rovian Bitchslap, engineered to happen right on the eve of election day.
Bush will be stubborn, he'll refuse any meaningful reforms, refuse to allow restrictions on executive pay, refuse to allow any help to go to Main Street instead of Wall Street, and he'll refuse to allow any meaningful oversight or checks and balances on Paulson - he'll demand that blank check.
This is not just Bush throwing a temper tantrum, this is engineered to put a rising tide of pressure on Congress, with the general idea that when the pressure's too high, Congress, led by Pelosi and Reid, will do a choreographed 1...2...3...CAVE!!!, giving in and letting Bush have almost everything he wants, right in the last week of October.
It'll be the same game as FISA, Kyl-Lieberman and the Iraq War supplemental funding. Bush throws a temper tantrum, eventually gets everything he wants after the Democrats cave in, and we'll be the victims of the Bitchslap.
Josh Marshall explained it first and explained it best here.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/209645.phpStuff like the Swift Boat attacks on John Kerry and McCain's Celeb/P Diddy assault on Obama aren't really about the attacks themselves. In themselves, they're often too cartoonish to be believed in any literal sense. What they're about is smacking the other guy around and making him take it. There's no better way to demonstrate someone's lack of toughness or strength than to attack them and show they are either unwilling or unable to defend themselves -- thus the rough slang I used above. That not only makes the other guy look weak. It also transforms him into an object of contempt, which together are politically fatal. It's this meta-message of weakness that resonates far beyond the literal claims. And it's this that Democrats so often seem to miss -- explaining the factual inaccuracies of the claims, demanding that the attacks stop, all the while reinforcing the intended message of the attacks in the first place.
The entire idea, from the beginning, aside from the power grab and money grab, is to change the public perception of the Democratic Party from the dynamic, assertive, new and gutsy party of Barack Obama, to the milquetoast, cowardly, contemptuous old party of Alan Colmes.
I'm pretty sure Obama and his advisors understand how to deal with the Rovian Bitchslap - he came back brilliantly from a large swath of nasty attacks from McCain by brushing them off and counterattacking - you always want to retaliate to a Bitchslap with a right hook. I'm not sure if Reid and Pelosi understand why they've been getting punked by the Bush Administration. Either that, or they've been bought by the corporate lobby, and have decided that they get more out of being the "loyal, but ineffectual, bitchslapped opposition" then they would get if they helped take the reins from Bush.
Either way, it is paramount that we do not allow the Democratic Party to be bitchslapped. We cannot allow it. We know the consequences - we get angry and demoralized, the GOP bully brigade gets energized, our candidates drop like stones in the polls, and we might even lose the election if we are forced to take another bitchslap. Y'know what? I don't care if the bailout is delayed. If it's really as bad as the doomsayers say, then I say we let Wall Street have a $100 billion dollar, very-short-term shot in the arm, then agree to come back to the problem after the election is over, and the new President and Congress are sworn in. If it's not as bad as the doomsayers say, then we have no reason to let Bush have what he wants.