Have you seen these state graphs?

[Catch22Dem]

The dude over at electoral-vote.com put them together. Now, based on the current data, it has Kerry winning Oklahoma, so don't put too much stock in these, but the states that have MANY data points are pretty interesting.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/state-graphs.html

[lapfog_1]

1. Making a projection

based on data points which are, in fact, different polls using
different sampling techniques and different filters... well, it's
at best suspect.

If you want to indulge in this, you need a lot more data points
over time, from the same source. Go back to the graphs and eliminate
all but one polling organization and then make projections if you
like...

Polls are usually based on the last "hot topic" in the news and how
it was covered. Bush is going to do badly when fighting in Iraq
and Abu Ghraib are all over the news (along with admin officials
obviously stonewalling or lying to commissions). When the SBVT
is smearing Kerry, then Bush starts to do better.

We haven't seen the backlash from the SBVT reflected yet. We will.

In the meantime, take all polls with a large grain of salt.