Can we win without PA? We're in trouble there

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results0809/pennsylvania.html
Poll: O 42, McSpain 41


Favorability:

Barack 56%
McSpain 56%
McThanksbutnothanks 52%
Biden 48%

Clinton 58%

75% Think McSpain is experienced; 16.8% think Obama is.

Undecideds leaning to McSpain 20 to 16 for O.

Over 40% think abortion should be legal ! Do they even know Palin is
against it?

[Statistical]

1. This is big10 first poll... call me when 2 or 3 polls (including PPP) say same thing

[Name removed]

2. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Arkana]

3. Zuh?

We're consistently 5-6 points ahead in PA in other polls--and that has an astounding number of undecideds.

Pennsylvania's going blue.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. States Usually Don't Vote In Isolation

Pennsylvania has been more Democratic than the rest of the nation since 1992 at the presidential level...

[WinkyDink]

5. Don't worry. Wait until Joe Biden comes to the Lehigh Valley. Can you say:

Bethlehem Steel? AT&T/Lucent? Mack Trucks? Lost pensions? Foreclosures?

WE WILL GO BLUE.

[Jennicut]

6. PA is definitely blue. All other polls are showing that.

Picking Biden has helped Obama as many there consider him their "3rd senator", Delaware is next to PA. I think Ohio will give Obama much more trouble. That will be a close one, PA not so much

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. Well O was ahead but this is the latest poll out there.

[regnaD kciN]

42. So what?

It's an untried poll from a pretty obscure outfit. If we had several polls from them, running over the past few weeks, and they showed the race tightening dramatically, it might be an issue. But, at this point, the fact that it's the "latest" is meaningless until we know more about this outfit. Let's put it this way: if Zogby Interactive were to release a new PA poll taken this afternoon, would you automatically assume it was more accurate than any other, just because it's "the latest poll out there"...?

[ShadowLiberal]

46. A poll a few days ago, the other most recent one, put PA as a tie

[blue_onyx]

8. Obama could win..

it would just be a little harder after losing a Kerry state. I find it hard to believe that Pennsylvania (or any of the rust belt states, other than Indiana) would vote for McCain. It's early and I predict Obama's poll numbers will continue to increase.

[DCBob]

9. I suspect PA will swing heavy to Obama in the next few polls.

Plus Biden will have a big impact once he spends some time there. Also Bill and Hillary could help if need be.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. Biden better get his buns up there then, :) It just flashed through

my mind that maybe it might not be a good idea to send Hillary there. I know, it sounds
counterintuitive, but with her high favorability, it could just keep reminding people
that she didn't win and didn't get selected VP? Just a thought.

I think we need to remind voters of what Palin stands for - book banning and no choice - whatsoever.
Hopefully they'll bring that up in the debates.

[woolldog]

10. No.

It's very difficult for Obama to win without PA. Assuming, as a baseline, he wins all the Kerry states + IA, NM, and CO.....if he loses PA

he'd have to win either (1)Florida or (2)Ohio or (3)A combination of Virginia+NV or Virgina+IN

[BlueInPhilly]

15. That's why I've donated again today!

I've voiced this concern before - taxes and race. Need to hammer those issues home.

Plus don't forget: between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh lies Pennsyltucky - home of the rednecks.

[woolldog]

18. We're going to need a superb turnout in Philly.

I believe PA's importance electorally is a big part of the reason why Biden was picked as VP.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. Philly can produce a turnout of 400,000 in excess of normal turnout when needed!

In 1992, I believe the city turned out 60% of registered Democrats for Clinton, which was a record and is do-able again.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. I read that "suburb" turnout. guess that's true too.

[WinkyDink]

45. Oh, there are some educated people in Centre County. ;)

[BumRushDaShow]

11. PA voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate in the last 4 Presidential elections.

It has a Democratic Governor (in his 2nd term) and just put in a Democratic Senator by a landslide (kicking Santorum out) in 2006. The Republican Senator (Arlen Specter) used to be a Democrat and is currently a "liberal - moderate" Republican who is only in office by the grace of Democratic Philadelphia (that he caters to). There are now > 1,000,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in PA.

Don't believe the hype!

[DCBob]

27. Correct. there are just too many factors in Obama's favor in PA.

And the Biden-effect is still coming. PA will go blue -- it has too.

[polichick]

12. No way - PA is going blue and it won't even be close.

[qanda]

13. All those terrible numbers and Obama is still leading

The last time I was in Pittsburgh, I never saw one McCain sign. There are a lot of new people registering to vote there also. I think the numbers aren't even nearly as close as this poll suggests. Doesn't mean we should just sit around and not work, but I really don't think McCain will win PA.

[TwilightGardener]

14. Hillary and Bill and Joe Biden should stump for him there. Pennsylvanians love them.

[elleng]

29. Biden was born in Scranton,

visits often.

[BumRushDaShow]

32. Biden was just here Tuesday!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7096590

[book_worm]

16. Obama will win. Polls are close but most other polls give the edge to Obama.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

20. but this is the newest poll. the others with O leading are old. Only

going on realclearpolitics numbers though. Hope you are right.

[book_worm]

28. It went to Kerry by 3-points in '04--Obama will do as well or better despite this poll.

[Teaser]

36. So it's the "newest poll"

that doesn't mean it's accurate.

[Cosmocat]

43. Three polls ...

have had McCain less than three down ...

Fox/Rasumsun and another R poll - all after the convention. This Big Ten poll can't be credible, too new/generic/far reaching.

[NYC_SKP]

19. I don't see why they asked about Hillary Clinton....

What is she running for?

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

Very favorable 182 29.9%
Somewhat favorable 159 26.2%
Very unfavorable 140 23.1%
Somewhat unfavorable 95 15.7%
Don’t know/refused 31 5.0%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain?

Very favorable 128 21.1%
Somewhat favorable 214 35.2%
Very unfavorable 155 25.6%
Somewhat unfavorable 87 14.3%
Don’t know/refused 23 3.8%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

Very favorable 159 26.2%
Somewhat favorable 193 31.8%
Very unfavorable 136 22.4%
Somewhat unfavorable 105 17.2%
Don’t know/refused 15 2.4%

:shrug:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. Odd that they asked, yes. But interesting nonetheless. It strikes

me that they are not "getting over" not having her as the nominee - or as VP??

[NYC_SKP]

25. I think they asked so that if something turned up, they could stir the shit...

Which suggests to me that their whole point of departure is suspect and may not be impartial.

If their mindset isn't impartial, then the whole construction of the study and wording of questions, etc., is suspect.

[dansolo]

26. It is almost like it is a push poll

I think that the pollsters are intentionally trying to skew the results by including Hillary in the poll. Hillary is not currently running for anything. It would have made more sense to include Nader or Barr, not Clinton.

[4lbs]

33. Or throw in the VP candidates Biden and Palin

n/t

[JimGinPA]

24. Last I Heard, We Had Registered Over 320,000 New Democrats Here In PA...

That's was a couple of weeks ago, so it's probably quite a bit more than that now. I predict they'll call PA for Obama as soon as the polls close on election day. I wouldn't freak out over every close poll you see between now and election day.

[adoraz]

30. I lived in PA for years...

DON'T be fooled that it is a northern state. There are a whole lot of racists. It will be a close match there, unfortunately.

Lots of old people as well.

[WinkyDink]

47. Well, I've lived here my entire 58+ years, and no way in H*** is McCain winning here.

We're big on guns, too, and we voted Kerry and Gore. And racism takes a backseat to economics.

[H2O Man]

31. Respectfully disagree.

I am confident that by November, we will win PA.

[adoraz]

34. I think we will win as well

but I think it will be a lot closer than most are anticipating.

[jody]

35. Fact: PA has 19 congressional districts of which about 70% are graded A for their support of the

Second Amendment.

I believe Obama is correct when he encourages his supporters to "get in their face".

Obama mocks McCain in Nevada stops

"I need you to go out and talk to your friends and talk to your neighbors. I want you to talk to them whether they are independent or whether they are Republican. I want you to argue with them and get in their face," he said.

"And if they tell you that, 'Well, we're not sure where he stands on guns.' I want you to say, 'He believes in the Second Amendment.' If they tell you, 'Well, he's going to raise your taxes,' you say, 'No, he's not, he's going lower them.' You are my ambassadors. You guys are the ones who can make the case."

Of course to get in the face of a red-neck gun-owner, Obama’s ambassadors better know what the Second Amendment means, the importance of D.C. v. Heller and other things like “assault weapon”.

I wonder how many DUers are prepared to comply with Obama’s exhortation?

I am and I do, :grr:

[liskddksil]

37. I would trust the more prominent PA pollers

Such as the Franklin and Marshall, Muhlenberg / Morning Call, and Quinnipiac surveys. They have a much better track record in predicting results.

[Captiosus]

38. Let's see..

Obama leading by 1, undecided spread within the margin of error.

THE SKY IS FALLING!!!11 :sarcasm:

Getting so tired of these "we're in trouble" posts every time some new poll comes out.

[JustAnotherGen]

39. No worries

I'm hooked in with the PA Obama Campaign. I'm getting up on election day early - going to vote first thing (I'm in NJ). Then I'm going to drive out to Eastern Central PA and help get people to the Polls.

Chill - Me and Obama? We got this covered! :hug:

[CreekDog]

40. I think there's something you aren't getting

not disrespecting you, but the idea that the poll says something "now" means something should be done "now" is bad advice.

polls don't show what you are doing "now". polls often reflect what's been happening over the past week or two. thus, if the strategy changed last week, it's probably not going to show up immediately.

[sampsonblk]

41. We are NOT in trouble in PA

Don't worry about the Keystone State.

[scheming daemons]

44. Obama will win Philly area by 600,000 votes... lose the rest of the state by 400,000

...and have a comfortable 200,000 vote win.

[ShadowLiberal]

48. Opinion of a PA resident

I live in PA, and I admit the last poll a few days ago showing PA tied has gotten me to worry about PA going red for the first time in months.

McCain is heavily outspending Obama here, by a 2 to 1 margin I think from an article I read recently (which shows Obama's campaign is at somewhat confident that they'll carry the state, enough to focus their cash more heavily elsewhere), so that could be part of the reason for the numbers getting tighter lately, as well as McCain's bounce being visible in those two polls.

There's also some people here who would have supported Hillary, but won't support Obama, one of my grandmothers is one of them.

Still, for now at least I think there's several things that favor Obama winning the state, assuming he starts to take at least a 3% lead here in the rest of the polls that start to come out here soon.

-In 2006 both our democratic governor, and new democratic senator won with over 60% of the vote, though they both didn't face opponents that were too difficult I'll admit. Still, it says something to beat your opponent by 20% or more.

-When our governor Ed Rendell ran for office he registered large numbers of people in big cities like his hometown of Philadelphia, and by piling up huge victories in the cities, and losing in most other parts of the state, he still won his first governor election. Obama has both benefited from Rendell's strategy during the primaries (as a lot of those city people are black, and thus were much more likely to support Obama), and used it himself in the primaries. There's a lot of people here who credit those two things with stopping Obama from losing by a much larger margin to Hillary in the primary. Right now Obama even has an ad up on the radio targeting young people by encouraging them to register to vote for change (complete with young people saying stuff like "I'm supporting Obama because I only make 2 gallons of gas an hour", and talk about them worrying about social security not being there when they're elders).

-Joe Biden being on the ticket should help a little bit here, as some parts of PA, including where I live, share media markets with Delaware. Obama is doing much better then expected in Indiana because of shared media markets in some parts of that state with Illinois.

-PA has gone blue in the last 4 presidential elections, so unless something big happens, or there's more PUMA people here then I thought, history shows the state's likely to support Obama.

-Obama has been leading McCain here in almost every poll since the primaries ended, in fact I think the best McCain has done is tying Obama here, like in that poll I mentioned recently.

So for now, I say yes PA could be a bit of trouble if polls like that one keep on coming from here in the next week, but for now I'm willing to bet Obama will get at least a small bounce in the polls once post economic crisis polls come out of our state.

[SOS]

49. Bob Barr just secured a place on the PA ballot

Ron Paul got 16% of the vote in the PA Republican primary.
This could be quite helpful.

[redstate_democrat]

53. Exactly.

Ron Paul got 16% of the fucking vote in PA. I don't think those Ron Paul voters are voting McCain this go round. If the PUMA effect is a problem there, the polls reflect that now. Add on to that the new voters in PA for Obama, and you have a Obama win in PA. McCain is wasting his money in PA.

[progressiveforever]

50. We can win without them, but don't think we'll have to

Pennsylvania is certainly one we need, but it is doable without it. I really think PA will come through in the in. I'm from Ohio and I am not as hopeful for it. I am hearing good things about the voter drive in Florida--so as long as we stay within a few points in Florida, we may have a nice surprise on election night there.

[KingFlorez]

51. Pennsylvania is not a problem

They've called it a toss-up state before and it has gone blue for the past few cycles.

[saltpoint]

52. I think Obama/Biden will carry Pennsylvania.

[Bravo Zulu]

54. I live in South Western Pennsylvania,

and I guarantee Pa. will vote for Obama,it's not our fault bu$h ruined our country, and we don't want mcpalin to finish it off!