538: Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection

[Coexist]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/obama-pulls-ahead-in-electoral-college.html

Charts and graphs are updated. Full polling report coming within the hour.

-- Nate Silver at 4:48 PM




Drudge Siren and all - I can't wait!

[darius15]

1. I think 538 (although very good) is a bit McCain friendly in terms of

the projections.

So if Obama is winning in 538, you know he's kicking ass.

[Coexist]

3. Nate is a self-professed Democrat, but following his site as I do

his weighting is conservative - he discusses it a lot. He weights pollsters accuracy in his stats. I trust him a lot.

[Teaser]

8. Nate is a Dem and a friend of Kos

His model is very conservative. It is basically a very complicated regression model, using current polls to estimate the likelihood of a win in November based on a how outcomes have tracked polls in various time periods before previous elections. It is designed to be very cautious around new polls. It doesn't "believe" a new poll until other polls back that one up. So changes can lag a bit.

[PerfectSage]

2. Big change from yesterday's 538 projection

I smell an asskicking landslide.


:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[Coexist]

4. HUGE turnaround!

[Schulzz]

5. And Intrade has him up in Ohio for the first time in months

http://www.intrade.com/

[Coexist]

6. In Ohio?! Wow, Plouffe said Florida is better bet than Ohio.

Hmmmm...

[Born_A_Truman]

7. Thanks! I was waiting for this.

[Coexist]

9. you are very welcome.

[nutsnberries]

10. that's the first thing I checked when I came home!

:woohoo:

i've been waiting for this! i like blueberry pie so much better than cherry pie. :9

[JimWis]

11. Much better than when I checked it mid afternoon - how often

is it updated?

[Coexist]

12. as often as he gets a slew of polls, I think.