This is the best September for a democratic nominee in 8 years

[Politics_Guy25]

At this point in 2004, Kerry was struggling. ATM, Senator Obama holds anywhere between a 1-6 point lead in the polls and the race is focused squarely on the issue that benefits him and us by extension the most, the economy of course. Also, I love the fact that he is attacking Mccain with awesome zingers that sting him hard. He's better on the stump than Gore and Kerry were. That matters. Also, having a 5-6 point lead on SEPTEMBER 18 is A LOT better than a 20 point lead on July 15. Huge difference.

Let's take a look at the current polls of O versus M:

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/09 - 09/17 -- 45.2 47.1 Obama +1.9
Gallup Tracking 09/15 - 09/17 2815 RV 44 48 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 09/15 - 09/17 3000 LV 48 48 Tie
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/15 - 09/17 912 RV 42 46 Obama +4
Battleground Tracking* 09/10 - 09/17 800 LV 47 45 McCain +2
CBS News/NY Times 09/12 - 09/16 LV 44 49 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 09/11 - 09/16 987 LV 45 49 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/09 - 09/14 2307 LV 46 46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 09/11 - 09/13 1008 LV 45 47 Obama +2
Newsweek 09/10 - 09/11 1038 RV 46 46 Tie

Take a look at the Bush v Kerry 2004 polls at this point. Look at how awful those numbers were.

ABC News/WP (810 LV) 9/23 - 9/26 51% 45% 1% Bush +6
Pew Research (948 RV) 9/22 - 9/26 48% 40% 2% Bush +8
Time (877 LV) 9/21 - 9/23 48% 42% 5% Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV) 9/21 - 9/22 46% 42% 1% Bush +4
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/20 - 9/23 50% 45% 0% Bush +5
Marist (630 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 50% 44% 2% Bush +6
CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 51% 42% 2% Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 52% 45% 1% Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV) 9/17 - 9/21 45% 42% 3% Bush +3
NBC News/WSJ (787 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 50% 46% 1% Bush +4
Zogby (1066 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 46% 43% 1% Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV) 9/14 - 9/18 45% 42% 2% Bush +3
ARG (LV) 9/7 - 9/21 47% 46% 1% Bush +1
CBS News (1048 RV) 9/12 - 9/16 50% 41% 3% Bush +9
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 - 9/15 54% 40% 3% Bush +14
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/12 - 9/15 49% 45% 1% Bush +4
Pew Research (725 LV) 9/11 - 9/14 47% 46% 1% Bush +1
Harris (867 LV) 9/9 - 9/13 47% 48% 2% Kerry +1
Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 - 9/10 49% 43% 2% Bush +6
IBD/TIPP (674 LV) 9/7 - 9/12 46% 46% 3% TIE
Zogby (1018 LV) 9/8 - 9/9 46% 42% 2% Bush +4
Time (857 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 52% 41% 3% Bush +11
AP/Ipsos (899 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV) 9/7 - 9/8 47% 43% 3% Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post (LV) 9/6 - 9/8 52% 43% 2% Bush +9
Pew Research (745 LV) 9/8 - 9/10 54% 38% 2% Bush +16
CBS News (909 RV) 9/6 - 9/8 49% 42% 1% Bush +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV) 9/3 - 9/5 52% 45% 1% Bush +7
Newsweek (1,008 RV) 9/2 - 9/3 52% 41% 3% Bush +11

And how was Al Gore faring at this point? Very well. Perhaps a slightly stronger lead than Senator Obama has now. He, of course, went on to win.

My point? I guess it is simply this: Senator Obama just needs to win or tie the debates and he'll win the race. Keep doing what he's doing now and wow us during the debates and it's game set match.

[tblue]

1. And remember, both Kerry and Gore actually WON.