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Obama Camp: Better Chance At Florida Than Ohio

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Cheney Killed Bambi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:22 PM
Original message
Obama Camp: Better Chance At Florida Than Ohio
On Tuesday, Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe sent a video to reporters laying out the political landscape with less than 50 days until the election. In it, he made a startling pronouncement: the Obama campaign was going to spend a total of $39 million in Florida, a state that, while classified as a battleground, is considered a long shot for the Democrat.

"Bush won Florida by 380,000 votes in 2004. If you look at the number of registered African-Americans who did not turn out in '04 it is over a half million; 900,000 registered young voters didn't turn out. There are over 1.4 million voters who we consider base voters who didn't register. Obviously there are a couple million more registered targets," explained Plouffe. "We have enough base voters in Florida to win the election if we can just turn them out.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/18/obama-camp-better-chance_n_127437.html
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DarthDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:25 PM
Response to Original message
1. Have They Said Exactly That?

I don't think their investment in Florida necessarily says anything about Ohio.
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-20-08 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
34. I didn't see anything in the article..
that reflects the header...it doesn't make sense. From the article..
here are, of course, variables to this equation. For starters, because Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida during the primary, Obama was not able to woo voters (he did fundraise) in the state until this spring. He started really organizing a ground game only in July. As such, the campaign has just under 50 offices there as opposed to the nearly 70 it has functioning in Ohio.
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AllieB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
2. I think they have a good shot at both.
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yourguide Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
3. Um, I dont see the word OHIO in there.
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
4. 70 Offices in Ohio.
Who says we can't have both?
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codjh9 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
5. The Yahoo composite poll has Ohio getting continually closer - and much closer than FL
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n2doc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:27 PM
Response to Original message
6. agree
To me, there would be some poetic justice if Obama won Florida and Ohio ended up being unimportant. I would really love it if he took Indiana, Virginia, Colorado and Iowa and made both states moot. Tow elections revolving around Fl and OH is two too many.
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gal Donating Member (534 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-20-08 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
31. every state is important....It's a 50 state election.
No president has lost Ohio, this could be the first but the people in Ohio are trying to make sure that record still stands.
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d_b Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:28 PM
Response to Original message
7. and that scares the hell out of me
We all know what they did to African Americans in 2000...

They've had eight years to strengthen their shenanigans.
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:28 PM
Response to Original message
8. I think Obama wins them both. The polls are very tight in both states meaning....
Obama is actually leading by ten.
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GrizzlyMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
9. I've got news for Plouffe!
We'll win them both :headbang:
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FloridaGrl Donating Member (615 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:30 PM
Response to Original message
10. I said it before
and I'll say it again; Florida is going blue this year.
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MarjorieG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:30 PM
Response to Original message
11. I think it says something about fraud. While FL won't count paper ballots that have been scanned....
They will have the ballots to count. Ohio has made safeguards, but HAVA purging, deliberate or mistakenly, will make for a lot of confusion. We can't afford to hold back on both.

Palin does excite the fundies, and also gives a narrative for theft-the same fundie narrative of 2004. There were 100,000 more votes than people. Just saying.
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darius15 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
12. I'm still banking on Kerry states + IA, NM, and CO.
If we lose one of those, I'm banking on VA. Then if we lose VA, I'll start worrying about these two.


These two states have disappointed me too many times.
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thereismore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Yep, I thought it would be Kerry states, IA + VA, but I think you are right. nt
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
13. Ohio: The Dumbfuck State
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Berry Cool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. And what was that supposed to mean?
Ohio has plenty of people who are NOT dumbfucks. Enough with the blanket insults of states.

This time, things will be different, because we have an honest secretary of state, and our election will not be stolen.
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Okay, sorry.
You're right. I'm just frustrated that a state that is largely industrialized and has a population that has been hit hard by Bushco. economic policies is even considering voting for McCain.

I was actually born in Ohio and lived there as a child and visited frequently after that. Part of my anger stems from my own dumbass relatives there who are too stupid to read the writing on the wall.
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Amending my post since the person apologized.
Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 06:52 PM by Connie_Corleone
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Okay, apologies.
I posted in haste and frustration.

See my post above.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Sweetie!
:hug:
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. Aw, thanks, Zidzi!
:hug:

For you:

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Oh my goodness! Did you take
Edited on Fri Sep-19-08 12:48 PM by zidzi
that pic of the Hood River..if indeed it is the Hood? :hi:

That's Kauai, isn't it? I'm confusedB-)
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. Yep -- Napali Coast of Kauai.
I didn't take it, unfortunately. :) :hi:
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. Yeah, at first I thought it was the River Hood 'cause
of you being in Oregon and that's a body of water I knew of but then I'm looking at that coastline and seeing those Mountains that look so much like the Na Pali Coast on the calendars I get from Kauai.

It's an eleven mile hike in on a winding trail that takes all day and I haven't done it but we'll see when I go back.

http://www.dayhiker.com/directory/hawaii_nopali.htm


Thanks for memories, Oregonian! :hi:
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RNdaSilva Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #22
28. For the Oregonians

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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #28
30. Thanks!
Purdy pickchas!
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gal Donating Member (534 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-20-08 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #13
33. There are alot of people here fighting for Ohio and Barack Obama.
Why don't you go insult someone who's actually done something to you.
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PresidentObama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
20. Downplaying Ohio, while pouring resources in Florida. I LIKE IT. Let's win both n/t
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-18-08 11:49 PM
Response to Original message
21. I dont see him even mentioning Ohio.
:wtf:
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budkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 12:33 AM
Response to Original message
23. He'll win both... book it.
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
25. Kerry "lost" OH by 118,000 and even Conyers said 100,000s of Dems were Disenfranchised
Preserving Democracy:
What Went Wrong in Ohio
Status Report of the House Judiciary Committee Democratic Staff

Wednesday 05 January 2005

Executive Summary

First, in the run up to election day, the following actions by Mr. Blackwell, the Republican Party and election officials disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of Ohio citizens, predominantly minority and Democratic voters:

The misallocation of voting machines led to unprecedented long lines that disenfranchised scores, if not hundreds of thousands, of predominantly minority and Democratic voters. This was illustrated by the fact that the Washington Post reported that in Franklin County, "27 of the 30 wards with the most machines per registered voter showed majorities for Bush. At the other end of the spectrum, six of the seven wards with the fewest machines delivered large margins for Kerry." (See Powell and Slevin, supra). Among other things, the conscious failure to provide sufficient voting machinery violates the Ohio Revised Code which requires the Boards of Elections to "provide adequate facilities at each polling place for conducting the election."
Mr. Blackwell's decision to restrict provisional ballots resulted in the disenfranchisement of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of voters, again predominantly minority and Democratic voters. Mr. Blackwell's decision departed from past Ohio law on provisional ballots, and there is no evidence that a broader construction would have led to any significant disruption at the polling places, and did not do so in other states.
Mr. Blackwell's widely reviled decision to reject voter registration applications based on paper weight may have resulted in thousands of new voters not being registered in time for the 2004 election.
The Ohio Republican Party's decision to engage in preelection "caging" tactics, selectively targeting 35,000 predominantly minority voters for intimidation had a negative impact on voter turnout. The Third Circuit found these activities to be illegal and in direct violation of consent decrees barring the Republican Party from targeting minority voters for poll challenges.
The Ohio Republican Party's decision to utilize thousands of partisan challengers concentrated in minority and Democratic areas likely disenfranchised tens of thousands of legal voters, who were not only intimidated, but became discouraged by the long lines. Shockingly, these disruptions were publicly predicted and acknowledged by Republican officials: Mark Weaver, a lawyer for the Ohio Republican Party, admitted the challenges "can't help but create chaos, longer lines and frustration."
Mr. Blackwell's decision to prevent voters who requested absentee ballots but did not receive them on a timely basis from being able to receive provisional ballots 6 likely disenfranchised thousands, if not tens of thousands, of voters, particularly seniors. A federal court found Mr. Blackwell's order to be illegal and in violation of HAVA.

Second, on election day, there were numerous unexplained anomalies and irregularities involving hundreds of thousands of votes that have yet to be accounted for:

There were widespread instances of intimidation and misinformation in violation of the Voting Rights Act, the Civil Rights Act of 1968, Equal Protection, Due Process and the Ohio right to vote. Mr. Blackwell's apparent failure to institute a single investigation into these many serious allegations represents a violation of his statutory duty under Ohio law to investigate election irregularities.
We learned of improper purging and other registration errors by election officials that likely disenfranchised tens of thousands of voters statewide. The Greater Cleveland Voter Registration Coalition projects that in Cuyahoga County alone over 10,000 Ohio citizens lost their right to vote as a result of official registration errors.
There were 93,000 spoiled ballots where no vote was cast for president, the vast majority of which have yet to be inspected. The problem was particularly acute in two precincts in Montgomery County which had an undervote rate of over 25% each - accounting for nearly 6,000 voters who stood in line to vote, but purportedly declined to vote for president.
There were numerous, significant unexplained irregularities in other counties throughout the state: (i) in Mahoning county at least 25 electronic machines transferred an unknown number of Kerry votes to the Bush column; (ii) Warren County locked out public observers from vote counting citing an FBI warning about a potential terrorist threat, yet the FBI states that it issued no such warning; (iii) the voting records of Perry county show significantly more votes than voters in some precincts, significantly less ballots than voters in other precincts, and voters casting more than one ballot; (iv) in Butler county a down ballot and underfunded Democratic State Supreme Court candidate implausibly received more votes than the best funded Democratic Presidential candidate in history; (v) in Cuyahoga county, poll worker error may have led to little known thirdparty candidates receiving twenty times more votes than such candidates had ever received in otherwise reliably Democratic leaning areas; (vi) in Miami county, voter turnout was an improbable and highly suspect 98.55 percent, and after 100 percent of the precincts were reported, an additional 19,000 extra votes were recorded for President Bush.

Third, in the post-election period we learned of numerous irregularities in tallying provisional ballots and conducting and completing the recount that disenfanchised thousands of voters and call the entire recount procedure into question (as of this date the recount is still not complete):

Mr. Blackwell's failure to articulate clear and consistent standards for the counting of provisional ballots resulted in the loss of thousands of predominantly minority votes. In Cuyahoga County alone, the lack of guidance and the ultimate narrow and arbitrary review standards significantly contributed to the fact that 8,099 out of 24,472 provisional ballots were ruled invalid, the highest proportion in the state.
Mr. Blackwell's failure to issue specific standards for the recount contributed to a lack of uniformity in violation of both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clauses. We found innumerable irregularities in the recount in violation of Ohio law, including (i) counties which did not randomly select the precinct samples; (ii) counties which did not conduct a full hand court after the 3% hand and machine counts did not match; (iii) counties which allowed for irregular marking of ballots and failed to secure and store ballots and machinery; and (iv) counties which prevented witnesses for candidates from observing the various aspects of the recount.
The voting computer company Triad has essentially admitted that it engaged in a course of behavior during the recount in numerous counties to provide "cheat sheets" to those counting the ballots. The cheat sheets informed election officials how many votes they should find for each candidate, and how many over and under votes they should calculate to match the machine count. In that way, they could avoid doing a full county-wide hand recount mandated by state law.

-SNIP
http://www.truthout.org/docs_05/010605Y.shtml
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demo dutch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Lots of Dems were disenfranchised in FL as well
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RBInMaine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-20-08 09:13 PM
Response to Original message
32. Ohio umemployment at 7.4%. WORK THAT STATE BIGTIME !!!
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