Portland Tribune Poll of Oregon: Obama 50% McCain 40%

[WI_DEM]

(this is more like it!)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/or_obama_50_mccain_40_portland.php

[melody]

1. Now those are numbers with a reality bias n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

2. BUT DICK MORRIS SAID IT WAS A TOSS-UP!!!!!

[WI_DEM]

3. he should go back to his real passion--toe sucking.

[Arugula Latte]

13. Yes! Dick is right! And McCain should spend LOTS of money here!

Lots and lots and lots of $$$! He can flip it -- lots of white people here, remember? McCain campaign: Here is your chance!

[Mme. Defarge]

4. No way Oregon has ever been

a swing state in this election.

[RichardRay]

5. Oregon's all about the Senate race...

that seems to be the close one. Smith needs to go and he's vulnerable, but it's sure not a shoo in for Merkley.

[WI_DEM]

6. I truly believe that Oregon will be one of several states where Obama will have coattails

for our senate candidates. Another big one is North Carolina. The AA vote turnout will be so high it will defeat Dole and I think it will help Musgrove in Mississippi too.

[RichardRay]

11. I'd like to see Smith (R-OR) go down.

He's played the edges for awhile now, but when it's time for a critical vote he lines up with his own team. As much as some of his rhetoric sounds good he's not walking his talk. Oregon (famously) doesn't have a big AA population, especially compared to NC or MI, but I still think Obama will have coattails there, so we'll just have to wait and see. I'd love to see Musgrove go down.

[ericgtr]

7. All of Smith's ads show in siding with Obama

He's is a republican through and through though, just trying to use Obama's name to give him the edge because Obama is so popular here. Disgusting for sure, but could work.

[GarbagemanLB]

8. He's a fucking scumbag. He has run ads about opposing the war and working with Obama, and his most

recent ad is trying to link a child rapist with his opponent.

[Thrill]

9. McCain peeked too early like Kerry

[DCBob]

10. That's more like it. Oregon is in the bag.

McIdiot actually campaigned there awhile back. His campaign is clueless.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. I will kiss my ex-boyfriend if Liddy Dole goes DOWN!!!

[Arugula Latte]

14. What's odd to me is that at least one recent poll showed a tight race in Washington state.

Usually, Washington is bluer than Oregon because of Seattle's larger population base compared to Portland/Eugene's.

Could be a bad poll, though. Ultimately, I don't think Washington will be close at all. Obama's gonna kick booty there.

[Arugula Latte]

15. I like this part a lot:

* * *

Oregon was a battleground state in the last two presidential elections, but probably won’t be this time. One reason: the surge of new Democratic voters in Oregon. Democrats picked up a whopping 17.3 percent more registered voters from January through July, adding 130,552 new members. Republicans lost 11,128 of their registered voters during the same period, or 1.6 percent of the total.

Some political analysts predicted the influx of new Democrats would be temporary, driven by excitement over Oregon’s Democratic presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Some Republicans and independents switched allegiances to cast votes in the primary. But that prediction has proved wrong. Party registration figures in the weeks since the May primary show Democrats continue to make gains.

In June and July, Democrats picked up 17,763 new members, a 2 percent increase in two months. Republicans picked up 3,245 new members, a 0.5 percent increase.

“I don’t think it’s temporary at all,” said pollster Tim Hibbitts of Davis, Hibbits & Midghall Inc. “George Bush and the Republican brand in Oregon have been very deeply damaged over the last four years.”

* * *