A new poll; what's up w/Indiana?

[fencesitter]

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

Obama and McCain in tight race in inaugural Big Ten Battleground Poll
Sept. 18, 2008

In the inaugural Big Ten Battleground Poll taken as the nation’s financial crisis worsened this week, John McCain and Barack Obama were in a statistical dead heat in seven of the eight Midwest states included in the survey.

The individual surveys of 600 randomly selected registered voters in each of the states were conducted by phone from Sept. 14-17 and were co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein and colleagues from participating universities. The polls each have a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The states included in the poll were Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota.

The eight states home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and the results of the poll show that they are among the most competitive in the country and are likely to be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except for Obama’s home state of Illinois, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state — Indiana — where he leads by 4 percentage points.

[Marsala]

1. More like, what's up with Iowa?

Obama is way ahead in every other poll but tied in the Big Ten one? State polls are amazingly screwy.

[d.amber]

3. my question exactly...Indiana has always been red

But Iowa? Those figures look totally wrong.

[WI_DEM]

5. that's one poll of Iowa, how many other polls show Obama leading big in Iowa?

People get so knocked out of joint by one poll.

[Teaser]

6. small sample sizes will do that to you

.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Dan Quayle's grip has loosened?

[GarbagemanLB]

4. Indiana is heavily red. The fact that it is this close is a good sign for Obama.

[hoosier_lefty]

7. well..

Indiana is full of fundies & wackos! I can say this as a lifelong "hoosier".

not to mention Racists. I hear the "n" word thrown around in reference
to Obama quite frequently. They always look around first to see if I'm near
because I always rip into them when I hear it.
Even in a factory filled with middle & lower middle class blue collar
workers there are 9 republicans to every dem.

I spend lunches in the break room arguing against right wing
talking points. Luckily DU keeps me informed and armed to the teeth.

I hate Indiana and I wish I was educated enough to get a real job and
move out of this hell hole. Until I can move I'll fight the wackos!

[progressivebydesign]

8. Better question is "what's up with the Big Ten poll?"

Most of us are losing interest in polls.. they can be skewed in any direction, and a sampling of 1,000 people or less doesn't give you a snapshot of what's really happening.