Context for State Polls: Obama is generally doing much better than Kerry did state-by-state

[Stop Cornyn]

These comparisons are based on Bush vs. Kerry results as contrasted with the average of recent polls from Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/). Bear in mind, much of this polling includes McCain's post-convention bump (so these average poll numbers are generally higher for McCain than the most current polling numbers).

States Bush Won Where Obama Is Leading

In Iowa Obama is up 9.7 (Bush won by 0.7)
In Colorado Obama is up 0.8 (Bush won by 4.7)
In New Mexico Obama is up 4.3 (Bush won by 0.7)

States Bush Won Where Obama Is Much Closer Than Kerry Was

In Virginia McCain is up 2.4 (Bush won by 8.2) (a recent poll has Obama ahead - http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Virginia_91735.pdf)
In Indiana McCain is up 3.4 (Bush won by 20.7) (a recent poll has Obama ahead - http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076)
In Ohio McCain is up 1.8 (Bush won by 2.1) (a recent poll has Obama ahead - http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results0809/ohio.html)
In Nevada McCain is up 1.0 (Bush won by 2.6)
In Montana McCain is up 9.0 (Bush won by 20.5)
In North Carolina McCain is up 9.0 (Bush won by 12.4)
In Texas McCain is up 10.8 (Bush won by 22.9)
In Kansas McCain is up 16.0 (Bush won by 25.4)

States Kerry Won Narrowly Where Obama Is Doing Better Than Kerry Did

In Wisconsin Obama is up 2.7 (Kerry won by 0.4)
In New Hampshire Obama is up 3.3 (Kerry won by 1.3)
In Minnesota Obama is up 4.7 (Kerry won by 3.5)

[Stop Cornyn]

1. selfkick

[mohc]

2. Apparently you are not being pessimistic enough for the board today.

[Stop Cornyn]

6. I tried to edit the title to make it more gloomy, but I was past the editing period

[Alexander]

3. K&R

[abumbyanyothername]

4. Appropos of not too much

I would like to report that Kerry's NH numbers were drastically underreported due to Diebold fraud (compare the vote tallies to exit polls).

I think Obama is winning NH, but that right now McCain is polling better than Bush did.

Texas is the prize I would most like to flip. Well AZ actually, but after that TX. I want to send a message that CHANGE HAS COME!

[Stop Cornyn]

5. Kerry being a long-term Senator just south of NH boosted his performance (and cut into Bush's). I'm

not surprised McCain is ahead of where Bush finished in NH.

[tiptoe]

7. ELECTION MODEL: OBAMA'S TREND ONLY MARGINALLY EXCEEDS KERRY, SO...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7121622&mesg_id=7121622 -x

[wildflower]

8. Thanks for this...I'm always wondering about this

I'm always wondering where Kerry was in comparison to Obama at this time, in this state, etc. :hi:

[Stop Cornyn]

9. Obama is well ahead of Kerry and Gore (not that we should coast or take anything for granted)

[politicasista]

10. I agree

That trend is impressive though we have to come out in big, if not record numbers. :)