BATTLEGROUND POLLS: FL Tied, Obama +1 in CO, +7 in NM, -1 in OH, -7 in VA

[jefferson_dem]

AllState/National Journal Battleground Polls

18 Sep 2008 01:00 pm

Yes -- we have our own tracking poll (Hotline-Diageo) And our own weekly battleground state surveys too. (National Journal.)

First, from a sample of 2015 registered voters in Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia, the head-to-head:

Obama 44%

McCain: 44%

Now, to the states:



Drilling down a bit, less than 40% of voters in all of those states except for New Mexico believe that Barack Obama is more prepared to be president than John McCain. Perhaps the "threshold" question is moot; maybe the commander-in-chief threshold is artificial in a change election.

NJ's polling is conducted by Financial Dynamics; Ed Reilly, a Democrat, and Brent McGoldrick, a Republican, supervise the field work and analysis. We're not pretending that these are non-partisan polls... we call 'em bipartisan polls...

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/allstatenational_journal_battl.php

[TwilightGardener]

1. Eh, I've seen polls where Obama is up in VA and OH--grain of salt here.

[WI_DEM]

2. The only one I quibble with is Virginia. I think it's closer than that.

[democrattotheend]

3. Not liking the Virginia number

The rest look ok. New Mexico is good. I know a lot of these are within the MOE but if we get this outcome on Election Day we win even if Florida goes McCain, assuming we keep all the Kerry states (and flip Iowa, which looks pretty close to a given at this point).

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

4. good news, basically, but the MOE is 4.9% for each candidate, which means

these polls really say nothing at all

[leveymg]

5. VA is virtually a dead heat. PPP poll put O ahead by 2 pts. Others w/in 3 pts of each other.