Opinions on polls by ARG?

[Eric J in MN]

They show Obama leading by only 6 points in Illinois:
http://www.electoral-vote.com

[Teaser]

1. They are the shite that

shite wipes off its own arse.

[skipos]

2. Pretty bad. And I would say that even if they had Obama up in OH, FL, VA, etc

They were bad in the primaries. Many people think Zogby Interactive and Arg are the worst.

[last1standing]

3. ARGs polls were taken last week and just released today.

The numbers are still showing the effects of the repub convention, a more popular opinion of phailin', and do not reflect the financial melt down from this week.

In other words, it's a whole new ball game now and those numbers are meaningless.

[fasttense]

4. Since they don't give the party identification of their sample - don't trust it.

Every single poll that samples more idiot repugs then Dems has McInsane ahead. Polls that sample equal numbers have a tie and polls that sample more Dems, which is the likely the real voter distribution, have Obama ahead.

[SuperTrouper]

5. Basura=Garbage=Rubbish=Trash

[seasat]

6. Nate Silver has pollster ratings at 538

He ranks ARG in the lower half of the polling firms. He bases his ranking on how accurate they were in predicting state outcomes during the primaries. He uses that information to weight the polls in his predictive models. They are only slightly better than Fox/Opinion Dynamics. Seltzer and Co. has the best rating at 0.75, ARG has a rating of 2.32, and the lowest national pollster is Zogby Interactive at 5.73.

[Eric J in MN]

7. Thanks for the link. NT

NT

[Eric J in MN]

8. duplicate

NT

[PBS Poll-435]

9. Historically, they are among the worst.

This year they were pretty good in the primary season.

One thing to remember with polls is, simply subtracting Obama's number from McCain's is not the only way polls should be read.