The Daily Widget – Thur 9/18 – O-293, M-245 – Virginia Blue; Nevada Red; Big Momentum Shift

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Thu Sep-18-08 06:35 AM
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The Daily Widget – Thur 9/18 – O-293, M-245 – Virginia Blue; Nevada Red; Big Momentum Shift

1. ANALYSIS

It was a huge day for state polls yesterday … 38 new polls were released for 32 different states. American Research Group (ARG) conducted 26 of these polls. I’ll discuss their polls further down.

First, let’s look at the states that changed sides today. Public Policy Polling shows Obama leading in Virginia by 2 points, which was enough to tip it blue. And Nevada, which was previously polling an average lead of +0.4 for Obama, is now shown by ARG with a 3-point McCain lead. That was just enough to tip Nevada red today.

Five other states changed columns since yesterday. Arizona (ARG) moved from the Weak McCain column to the Strong McCain column. ARG also shows both Louisiana and Montana changing from Strong McCain to Weak McCain, and shows West Virginia moving from Weak McCain into the margin of error (Lean McCain). Lastly, CNN/Time polls Obama leading in Florida by 4 points, which on average moves it from the Weak McCain column into the margin of error (Lean McCain).

Overall, this comes to five states moving to the left and only two states moving to the right today. Coupled with a one-percent increase in trading, this is a major momentum shift in Barack Obama’s favor! (To get a visual of the momentum change, take a look at the new graph in Figure 4b below.)

BUT … it would have been a completely different story if the only polls released yesterday were the ARG polls. Of the 26 polls conducted by ARG, 7 are blue states, 7 are swing states, and 12 are red states. And the polls were conducted between 3 days and 10 days after the republican convention. The popular vote increased for McCain in 18 of the 26 states they polled. This was an attempt to create a buzz about McCain’s popular vote lead growing nationwide.

ARG allegedly studied a chart of the states and where each state stood, and found red states that could be redder, blue states that could be less blue, and right-leaning swing states that could lean more to McCain right after the convention. McCain is shown winning 6 of the 7 swing states polled by ARG (New Mexico went to Obama). It’s almost as if they took our six-column chart and picked which states to poll with the popular vote in mind (circled in red):

And they would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for those meddling kids and their dog at CNN and Time Magazine (5 polls yesterday). But it backfired. :D Although McCain still holds the popular vote lead, Barack Obama gained 50,000 votes on him yesterday. We pulled the hood off the ghost and found it to be the republican party. (Scooby Snack, anyone?)

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Alabama

Obama 36, McCain 58 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Alaska

Obama 39, McCain 55 (American Research Group, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona

Obama 39, McCain 56 (American Research Group, 9/14, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California

Obama 52, McCain 36 (Field Poll, 9/14, +/- 3.5, 830 LV)
Colorado

Obama 44, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Delaware

Obama 51, McCain 40 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
District of Columbia

Obama 82, McCain 13 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida

Obama 48, McCain 44, B1, N4, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.5, 907 RV)
Hawaii

Obama 63, McCain 32 (American Research Group, 9/12, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Idaho

Obama 25, McCain 68 (American Research Group, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Illinois

Obama 51, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana

Obama 43, McCain 48, B2, N4, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.5, 890 RV)
Kansas

Obama 31, McCain 63 (American Research Group, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky

Obama 37, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 9/12, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Louisiana

Obama 43, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 9/12, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maine

Obama 51, McCain 41 (American Research Group, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Mississippi

Obama 39, McCain 55 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri

Obama 45, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana

Obama 47, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nevada

Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/14, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Mexico

Obama 52, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/16, +/- 3.9, 671 LV)
New Mexico

Obama 51, McCain 44 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New York

Obama 55, McCain 38 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 46, McCain 45, B2, N2, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.5, 910 RV)
North Carolina

Obama 41, McCain 52 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio

Obama 44, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio

Obama 46, McCain 44, B2, N4, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 913 RV)
Oregon

Obama 51, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/15, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Rhode Island

Obama 58, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Rhode Island

Obama 59, McCain 33 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Texas

Obama 36, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Utah

Obama 29, McCain 65 (American Research Group, 9/13, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia

Obama 39, McCain 48 (Christopher Newport Univ., 9/14, +/- 4.4, 500 RV)
Virginia

Obama 48, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/14, +/- 3.0, 1090 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 45, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 9/16, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 49, McCain 45, B1, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/16, +/- 3.0, 950 RV)
Wisconsin

Obama 48, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 9/13, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wyoming

Obama 28, McCain 66 (American Research Group, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes