Evangelicals who vote Democrat & the "social" issue ballot initiatives

[Essene]

Ok...

First of all, is anybody tracking all the ballot initiatives with big social/religious hooks in swing states?

This article from July indicates 90 ballot questions in 27 states already by July 24th. A cliff-note review of the implications for the big swing states would be great.

23% of the american population now identifies as "evangelical" or "born again."

Recent articles are discussing how the GOP have been losing sway among evangelicals, although this doesnt imply a zero sum gain for Democrats. Obama is obviously trying hard. This block has determined the last 2 elections... and it's evolving.



Interesting! That's a change from 30% to 50% among republicans, in 4 years. Why?

Roughly 25% of white evangelicals voted Kerry and Gore in elections passed, and that Obama has roughly the same margins as of June 2008. Evangelicals feel more and more welcomed by the democratic party, but it's still not apparently pulling many more than in the past. It seems those white evangelicals disillusioned with the GOP just dont vote.

Pew research indicates that less than half of evangelicals approve of Bush's performance. The 2006 backlash appears to be ongoing still, but yet isnt reflected in Obama's numbers for whatever reasons. On the flip side, 57% of white evangelicals considered themselves "strong" supporters of Bush 4 years ago, compared to only 28% for Mccain right now.

The overall leanings...

• 62% of white evangelicals still lean republican.
  
  
• 43% of all evangelicals lean democrat. 44% lean republican. EVEN!!!!
  

Correspondingly, Pew has found that even among Republicans and white evangelicals, there's a growing trend away from mixing religion and politics. Similarly, 60% want a broader "values" agenda than the usual abortion, gay marriage and stem cell stuff the right-wing leaders pounce on. They are sensitive to a wider range of issues that may overlap with democratic platform stuff.

So what does this all mean?

I think it means that Obama should be even among all evangelicals in theory, and the question is how evangelical voter turn out emerges for him vs for Mccain. That's not something you can poll. It would seem that this implies organizing non-white evangelicals as well as accounting for all the ballot initiatives that might galvanize folks around "social" issues on both sides.

Thoughts?


See

http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=328253
http://pewforum.org/docs/?DocID=322
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/05/AR2006100501763.html
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12208546

[Indiana_Dem]

1. I'm an exception but I'm born-again and I've always voted Dem. nt

[Sophree]

5. Me too.

I had someone tell me just this past weekend that I couldn't be too liberal if I'm serving the Lord. I answered that I'm pretty darn liberal and left it at that, but I was thinking- SAYS WHO??!!!?? As if the Republicans or even conservatives have a monopoly on my Jesus!!!

[Essene]

7. isnt the problem that some just define christianity in legalistic terms?

i mean... as if you have to "politically correct" on certain issues of importance to social conservatives.

the "jimmy carter" style of christianity is deemed heresy or not fully christian to them, no?

[Sophree]

8. Some are legalist

I'm no expert, but to me, some are very legalistic in their interpretation of Christianity- judgmental, unforgiving- completely against the Gospel!

Some have true concerns about the "social issues" and I totally respect that. It's when they start to question other people's faith who don't agree with them on every single thing or who have different political views- you're right it's legalism.

[Essene]

6. why do you call yourself an exception? =D

it seems you may not be so alone as a population after all!

do you believe more of those in your congregation, community and family still lean republican?

perhaps they are just quietly biting their tongues and feel the same...

[Indiana_Dem]

9. I hope so! But it doesn't seem the case. nt

[Wapsie B]

2. Evangelical does not equal born again.

Evangelical does not mean born again. The ba's are a mere subset of Evangelical Christianity.

[Essene]

3. they are related. im not sure id say...

that born again is necessarily a sub-set, as you may have ba's that are not exactly evangelical.

evangelical, fundamentalist and born again all overlap but arent exactly the same.

i think the stay is more about a chunk of "values" christian voters in america. obviously they arent all religious-right or even social conservatives.

[truthisfreedom]

4. Vote Democratic.