A closer look at the recent polls. The trend is for Kerry

[cindyw]

For all of those who freaking out and calling for changes in the campaign, take a closer look at the polls. Yes Kerry has dropped from a good lead due to the swift boat ads, but things are going back the other way. I have included head to head in some cases because Nader on the ballot in most states. A closer look at the polls where Bush is ahead is necessary.

* LA Times has a Bush 3 point lead. Now remember that the LA Times came under a great deal of scrutiny recently for including more Dems in their polls than Republicans. It is possible that they have changed the balance of Dems vs Repub in their poll.

** Gallup has consistently had Bush ahead when all others had Kerry ahead by up to 5 and 7 points.

*** Time has a tie or Bush ahead by 2, but keep in mind that they also have Nader getting 5 points. I find this very hard to believe. The poll also has a MoE of 4.

Registered Voters

ABC/Washington 8/29 Tie
FOX 8/25 Kerry +1
Gallup 8/25 Bush +3 **
NPR 8/24 Kerry +5
GWU 8/17 Kerry +2
Zogby 8/14 Kerry +7
Gallup 8/11 Bush +3 **
ICR 8/8 Tie
Time 8/5 Kerry +7


Likely Voters

ICR 8/29 Kerry +3
ABC/Washington 8/29 Kerry +1
Time 8/26 Tie or Bush +2 ***
Gallup 8/25 Kerry +1
LA Times 8/24 Bush +3 *
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/23 Tie
CBS 8/18 Kerry +3
Gallup 8/11 Bush +1 **
ICR 8/8 Kerry +5
Time 8/5 Kerry +8
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/5 Kerry +6
FOX 8/4 Kerry +3

My conclusion is that, yes we have taken some hits and had our lead chipped some, but for the most part we are holding on to a lead or a tie. It will be necessary to see whether Bush gets a bump from the convention. To break what seems to be a tie he would need to get quite a bump. Also keep in mind that all of this has happened in August when we had no Kerry spending and the Swift boat attacks.

Let the Chicken Little stuff go for at least a day please.

**** edited for spelling

[kikiek]

1. Personally I think it will be Kerry..and a landslide.

[Joylaughter]

9. L A N D S L I D E

My new mantra. Another is this: I TRUST JOHN KERRY

[kikiek]

11. I'm with you. I will make that my mantra too. Because I do.

[mourningdove92]

2. Its amazing what the picture looks like when the reported

polls are not "cherry picked" to give a certain message.

We are so going to win this.

[blue neen]

3. Thanks for the good news.

[elperromagico]

4. Nader may manage to get on 20 state ballots, tops.

He's off the ballot in at least a dozen already - many of which are among the biggest in the Union.

And it has been proven in state polling that if you offer some other name as a third option - Badnarik, for instance - that candidate will garner percentages similar to Nader's.

I would be surprised if Nader got 1% of the total vote.

[blue neen]

5. Commonwealth Court in PA rejected his bid for the ballot

here yesterday. Good news!

[elperromagico]

6. Also talk of illegal signatures in Ohio and other states.

And let's hope his affiliation with the Reform Party will screw him in other states like it's screwed him in PA.

[bigtree]

7. you mean we're not d-d-d-dooomed!

Yay!

[cindyw]

8. Nooooo

Now, I'm sure there will be some bump, but honestly can you see Bush going over 50 or 51? I just can't. I mean Kerry didn't run ads for a MONTH and he is tied or has a small lead! Any bump will be short lived when Kerry kicks back in to campaigning.

[T Bone]

10. Kerry starts campaigning again at midnite Thursday

Its all downhill for the BFEE then.
Hope shrub has lots of brush to clear back in Crawford, cause that's where he be Jan. 21 !!