Clarifying Chick Todd's Comments (re: Obama losing 70% undecideds)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

What Chuck Todd said is that Obama need to have the election essentially sewed up with decided voters on the Sunday before the election or he is in trouble because Todd predicts that undecided voters will break for McCain.

His theory is that white rust-belt voters who are supporting all the down-ticket Dems but are still "undecided" on the presidential race are probably not going to ultimately vote for Obama.

It's a reasonable theory, but only a theory.

If Todd is correct, then Obama is in a position usually faced by an incumbent. In a typical election undecideds break for the challenger about 2:1, and the conventional wisdom is that an incumbent who polls under 50% in the last polling set is probably going down.

Personally I think the out-party factor and the race/Reagan-Dem factor acting in opposition to each other will result in an undecided break closer to 50-50 than 70-30, but either way it's a novel historical situation. With no racial factors in play Obama would get 66% of undecideds just for being a different party than Bush.

Long story short, I don't know that undecideds will break huge for McCain, but the Obama campaign is well advised not to count on the traditional 2:1 undecided break the out party usually gets. Though the 70% figure is a stretch, the underlying message is not. Obama DOES need to reach and hold 48%-50% among decided voters because we cannot count on the undecideds. They are unpredictable this year. If Obama does well with undecideds that's gravy.

I think Obama can reach and hold those levels. (Partuculary since 3rd parties are sure to get 2% between them... analyzing the race as a binary choice is a useful rule of thumb, but not down to the last decimal place.)

[BumRushDaShow]

1. The other possibility is that alot of these "undecideds" sit home on election day. n/t

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. Yes, some undecideds will not bother to vote.

An God bless 'em. I've never understood the cosmic importance of people voting who have no idea who to vote for.

[Cha]

19. Yeah, some "undecideds" will never

make up their minds:silly:

[EV_Ares]

2. So what info is he basing his theory on by the 70%. Are there certain poll #s that

are showing this or is this just his calculated guess based on his gut.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Predicting behavior of undecideds is mostly a judgment call

He was using some oblique polling data in terms of people who are decided on Dems in down-ticket races but say they are undecided for president. The suggestion is that if someone is voting the Dem ticket but not willing to commit to Obama they probably have "issues"

But in general undecideds are unpollable almost by definition. The question isn't how they poll, but what their "undecided" polling response might mean, which is at beast an educated guess.

[RagAss]

3. My theory...there are no undecideds ... just folks afraid one way

or the other to express themselves in a racially divided nation.

[1corona4u]

4. And this year, I think undecided means

they don't like either candidate. I know a lot of people who say they just aren't voting. This is a very different election, and I don't think it will compare to any previous election. There are those that can not bring themselves to vote for mccrap, and there are those who can't vote for Obama. I hope they don't vote, since the pundits think they will vote for mccrap.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. I agree. This is a base election with a high level of disaffection in the middle.

[ClarkUSA]

6. Who indies will break for will depend on the state and the situation on the ground.

For Chuck Todd to talk about this 50 days out is irresponsible.

[EV_Ares]

9. Absolutely, this is why the media appears to be pulling out all their cards now to

pull this election in for the republicans. The owners of the media are strongly putting out the word it looks like.

[JaneQPublic]

10. Actually, Chuck said Obama must be at 48 percent before the election, not 50 (nt)

[Abacus]

12. It will depend on how much McCain support lags;

if McCain is polling at 45%, there should be plenty of room for an Obama win, but if he's also at 48, it'll be close.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. I thought he said 50% at the beginning, then 48% in his summation.

But your point is taken... 48, 49, 50... all levels where even getting only a third of undecideds puts you over the top.

I edited the OP to reflect the ambiguity.

Thanks.

[Abacus]

11. Months ago, Nate Silver at 538 published a regression that generally describes how gaps close

as the election nears, with the candidate behind making up more ground. Using his formula, I extracted that McCain will take around 57% of undecideds. This number has held pretty steady despite vacillations in the underlying data. At the moment, I'm showing a state by state average of 54% of undecideds going for McCain -- this number is more variable but trends toward the 57% mentioned previously. That national average, estimated from national polls only, however, indicates a slightly different story, with Obama holding a minimal, but consistent advantage here, currently McCain only registers about 48% of undecideds.

In short, I have been in agreement with Chuck Todd on this; we need to be pretty close to majority come election day.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. I like your general range. undecideds 54-46, one way or another.

There are two factors in direct opposition, so I don't see undecideds going 2:1 in either direction.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

14. poppycock

this election hinges on the younger voters. If the 18-24, 28, 30 stay home we are doomed. If they get out of the classroom and vote Obama will win and win strong.

[rucky]

15. Our edge will come from registering new voters.

moreso than swinging registered ones.

[ginnyinWI]

16. say what they will--enthusiasm for McCain is low.

He's not able to draw crowds without his bright shiny object along. And although she energizes the base, I don't know that she's "all that" with the undecideds. If they liked her, they'd be decided by now.

Even my conservative parents are voting for McCain because he's a better alternative than Obama, not because they actually like him. Their opinion on Palin is that she makes the race "interesting" to watch. They think this election is some version of "American Idol" merely meant for entertainment. That's your typical low-information voter for you.

So if they aren't on board for McCain and the Repub party now, that leaves open the possibility that they aren't satisfied and might give the new guy a chance. I know I would!

[NoodleyAppendage]

18. "Undecideds" "Rust Belt Voters" "Low Information Voters" All bullshit euphemisms for RACISTS.

Can we just cut through the crap and tell it like it is? The reason these voters are breaking towards McGrampy & Nazi Girl is because of RACE! Pure and simple, they don't want to vote for the scary black man.

An African-American President would reinforce the personal life failure (in the presence of a sense of entitlement) that many poor and uneducated whites feel.

J

[BlooInBloo]

20. After performing a thorough study, I've found that it's essentially *impossible*....

for white folks to use to word "racist" when describing white folks.

:rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. The Seventy Percent Figure

The reason political scientists predict most undecideds will break for the challenger is because they assume undecideds are already familiar with the incumbent and if they have not yet decided to support him or her they probably never will...

In this case, McCain is treated as the incumbent because he is the nominee of the incumbent party...

It's a nice theory for a garden variety presidential election which this most certainly isn't...