Does anyone else get the feeling McCain will spend more than $84 Mil?

[9119495]

I am seeing a rediculous number of McCain ads this week but since the man has accepted public financing, he's destined to run out before the election.

So what happens when he runs out. Will any network really not accept a bogus payment? What are the sanctions in the law for media outlets that take illegal money?

Would the next congress even impeach them for spending beyond their means? Won't they just claim they could not account for such huge sums of money in the closing days of the campaign? After all, wouldn't a "mavrick" be willing to break the law to win?

I'm not just being paranoid am I? Does anyone else share this fear?

[Eric J in MN]

1. The Republican National Committee and state parties...

...don't have spending limits, and so they can legally spend much more than $84 million.

[Boz]

2. Hes already spent more than the cap, he took out loans against the funds

Just to run his primary campaign.

[Kdillard]

3. McCain will not have a problem because the RNC and the 527 will

do the dirty work that he legally can't afford. He wil say he spent 84 million but it will have actually been more money spent on his behalf.

[creeksneakers2]

4. McCain/Palin is still soliciting individual donations

There's a loophole in the law that allows them to collect for something called a compliance fund. Its supposed to be the amount of money needed to cover the cost of complying with legal requirements. It can cover 5% of ad costs under the theory that the part of the ad that says "I'm John McCain and I approve this message" is mandated by law.

We'll see how creative McCain can get with the compliance money.

[Statistical]

5. There are lots of ways for McStalin to get the $$$.

There are lots of ways for McStalin to get the $$$.

Last article I saw was he had ~$40mil at the convention. As soon as he got the nomination he has to give that money away.
Where did he give it to? The RNC. The RNC was reporting that they have about ~$100 mill at end of convention (likely including McCains $40 mil). As soon as he got the nomination he picked up $85 mil.

So that left the McCain + RNC bank at $100+$85= $185 million day after the convention.
RNC "goal" is $100 million between convention & Nov 4.
McCain can raise money for a "compliance fund" legal costs, admin, 5% of ads cost, etc. Likely he will net about $20 mil for that.
So that would give campaign about $300 million to spend on the GE ($185+20+$100).

Obama had $50 mil leaving the convention and DNC had about $100 mil = $150 mil
Obama goal is to raise $50 mil per month = +$100 mil.
DNC believes it can aid Obama another $50 mil

Total for campaign = $150 + $100 + $50 = $300 mil.

The RNC is so good at outraising the DNC it doesn't hurt McCain much to take public funds.
Obama did the right thing by opting out. It is the only thing keeping the $$$ race competitive.