Well, it looks like it comes down to CO or OH.

[johnnyrocket]

Here's my take on a worst case, realistic scenario based on polling...and it looks like Obama HAS to win either Colorado OR Ohio, or he's playing with fire. It seems to me, Colorado is more in reach than Ohio. Damn Ohio, what the hell is wrong with you, Ohio? Can't something be done to slap Ohio around, get them to their senses?

[rockymountaindem]

1. I think that's the map that will win us the election

However, it's a little close for comfort in Colorado. I think Obama needs to pull his national numbers up a little higher before we can really start counting on that tide to pull us ahead in CO.

[mth44sc]

2. What was it Kennedy said

something to the effect that no where do Democratic ideas get more support and fewer votes than Ohio...

[Tigress DEM]

49. FACTOID - POLLS are NOT calling/counting NEWLY REGISTERED voters.

11 million new DEMs I believe is the last number I saw.

Wherever they land it's going to tip some of this into blue.

[POAS]

51. Also not polling those with cell phones only.

[rockymountaindem]

52. We heard this as well as the cell-phone theory ad nauseum in 2004

I just don't believe either of them anymore.

[demokatgurrl]

62. Me neither- I get all KINDS of calls on my cell phone

from people I have never knowingly given my number to.
Of course I have never, ever been polled- on cell phone or land line. And I've been voting since 1976.

[Tigress DEM]

68. Thing is people who have ONLY cell phones are often hard working DEMS

WE need to be in touch because we are stretched to the max trying to keep our families in tact and squeeze in as much activism as we can while donating to as many causes etc.. and one place to economize is to cut the land line.

So WHY would they want to open THAT can of worms when they KNOW the numbers of DEMs in THIS DEMographic would be high?

[Tigress DEM]

69. Either what? Please clarify.

Don't believe the polls and/or don't believe DEMs and newly registered voters aren't being equally represented?

Or was there some other either I missed?

[DCBob]

54. I agree. That is the easiest road to victory.

But probably will end up being much better than that.

[smoochpooch]

3. Hell, it gets the job done!

I agree that Michigan and Penn. stay with Obama, despite some of the recent concerns. N.M. looks like it is tightening up, but I think Florida could very easily gobama too (come on Clintons, do your thing). All the states that have been moving into the McCain column aren't really surprises anyway, so at least Obama knows where he needs to focus from here on out. Need to keep an eye on N.H. though.

[grantcart]

4. Indiana is getting very close and Florida could be the biggest surprise of all

Plouffe told reporters that they have identified 600,000 AA voters that were registered but did not vote in 2004

[Blondiegrrl]

9. Are those 600,000 being factored into the FL polls?

I'm guessing no, if they're only polling "likely voters" who also voted in 2004.

[grantcart]

15. no they can't factor them in because they didn't vote

and that goes for the other millions that have been registered to vote.

The pollsters are under reporting but its not entirely their fault - from a polling point of view they aren't going to count until they vote. They will get called and everything but the weighting of Dems vs Reps will be off.

[Blondiegrrl]

20. Based on that scenario, we might yet have a landslide victory.

:toast:

[Bobbie Jo]

43. 2004 is a misleading measure....

I didn't vote in 2004, nor did many others who have a renewed interest in THIS election.

[Frank Booth]

35. I agree. Florida is definitely getting overlooked. Part of it's due to residual trauma,

but if we gotv in Floria, we can win it.

[Sebastian Doyle]

36. We can't count on Florida

Bush Crime Family machine still "counts" the votes there. Crist may seem a little more sane than Jebbie on the surface, but Poppy's team has been there for decades, and they ain't going anywhere.

[flamingdem]

42. What a drag. Lots of tight dem races. My favorite is Joe Garcia v. Mario Diaz-Balart-facist

Ay dios. What a relief it would be to get rid of him.

[Hawkowl]

40. Has he uncaged them?

Identifying voters doesn't do shit. Florida probably disallowed 600,000 democratic voters last election. I'll shit my pants if O can reel in FL.

[Tigress DEM]

46. Ohio is getting caged too.

I don't remember if it's a state thing or not, but I also hear that Rethugs are using foreclosure lists to knock voters off. The claim is it invalidates their residency requirement, but that's bull because someone can still reside in their same neighborhood and many foreclosures can be renegotiated.

Judge said it it's barely legal and even if so it's a low blow.

[grantcart]

64. when they say that they have identified them it means that they have had

a personal contact with the campaign and that they have their phone number and address. It means that they will continue to get mailers and phone calls in line with their GOTV movement.

Florida is always a toss up but we shouldn't just expect it to go Red. It is in play.

[Coexist]

63. I agree, grantcart, I am bully on Florida.

between those voters and newly registered voters, this will be an Obama state.

[tekisui]

5. My perspective:

mcPOW MUST take FL, OH, VA, CO, IN, AND NC.

He won't do it.

[Statistical]

6. It would be better if Obama wins OH in a close race then using CO or NM to put him over the top.

It would be better if Obama wins OH in a close race then using CO or NM to put him over the top.

270 is 270 right? Why would it matter? Harder to steal IMHO.

On the above map BO has 273 EV. If the repubs flip one state (by recounts, challenging ballots, losing ballots, erasing electronic machines in one dem heavy precinct, etc) with 5+ EV then it changes the outcome R: 270+ D: 269 or less.

If we took the same map minus say NM (-5 EV) but gained OH (+20EV) that puts Obama @ 288!

To cheat they would need to flip 19 EV. Of course if the flipped OH it would still be stolen but it reduces the number of places they need to sucessfully cheat. Say they cheat in CO. Oops Obama still wins. VA = Obama still wins.

I am not sure if I explained it well but basically it reduces the number of places they can cheat and win.

[ClarkUSA]

7. How so? All Obama has to do is win all of Kerry's states +1 state (likely Iowa at this point).

But he'll do better than that.

[chiefofclarinet]

14. It's Kerry's States + 3 states

Kerry won 252 EV's. Iowa is only 7. That means only 259, which is a 11 point loss.

But, Iowa is in the bag for Obama. Colorado and New Mexico look good for us. With those, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and Nevada are just bonuses.

[doc03]

8. What happened to all those expectations of winning

southern states and several western states? That's basically the same map from 2000 and 2004. It's starting to look like no matter who wins it will just be by a few electoral votes. This is really depressing if that's the way it turns out. If Obama wins we won't gain enough votes in the Congress to accomplish anything and it will just be the same old partisan gridlock. If Obama wins we will hear Rush Limbaugh saying America held hostage day number (---). Then after 4 years he gets voted out because he didn't change a damn thing. It's like there is no hope for this country anymore. look at all the high hopes we had a couple years ago when we took control of Congress they have accomplished almost nothing. They didn't even have the guts to pursue Bush's impeachment worrying it would backfire on them, well that strategy sure doesn't appear to have payed off. :banghead:

[Blondiegrrl]

10. So it's bad if Obama loses and it's bad if Obama wins?

Aren't you just a little ray of sunshine.

[smoochpooch]

18. I think he's just saying it would be nice to look at a map that has a little more blue

for once. When elections are as close as the OP projects, it's hard to make a case that the country has really gotten behind the winner, and that can limit the winner's options when setting an agenda because half of the country hates what you do no matter what. Is it wishful thinking? Sure. But I too originally had hopes that Obama (and all Democrats) would win with a commanding "mandate" from the American people. But, all of us here would be more than happy with any kind of Obama win.

[doc03]

24. Exactly, it's just frustrating to hope for things to improve

election after election and even when you win you never seem to have the votes to accomplish anything.

[doc03]

23. Time and time again we either lose

the election or if we win we never have the votes to do anything. I remember what hopes I had when Bill Clinton was elected, in the end just what was accomplished? He passed the Family Medical Leave Act, I don't personally know anyone that ever took advantage of it. How many working people can actually take an extended time off work without pay? The economy was good during his years and he balanced the budget. If Gore would have become President he maybe could have worked from there and got more done but our hopes were dashed again. Another legacy of the Clinton Presidency NAFTA has harmed more middle class workers than anything a Republican has ever done. When you think about it a Republican could have never gotten enough votes from the Democrats to have ever passed NAFTA. Oh,if you want to know a big reason Obama or any Democrat has a hard time in Ohio NAFTA is a big part of it. Another one is people that live in the city just don't understand our tradition of hunting and the NRA is always able to scare enough people into voting against their own interest. I'm sorry to be so down on everything but I'm 60 years old and have heard this bullshit about change all my life and only get more disappointments in the end.

[amborin]

29. we'll do well in all the other races, and that will help enormously

[doc03]

50. I just read an article yesterday that all hopes of

getting 60 seats in the Senate are pretty much gone and we will probably only gain in the single digits in the House. Read story by Chris Todd on NBC.com "Is Palin's bubble about to burst".

[CarbonDate]

21. These things do not happen overnight.

Sorry if you expected that the sky would open, celestial choirs would sing, and the world would be perfect, but we still have a lot of work in front of us even if we do win this thing. Winning in November is just the first step.

[Two Americas]

28. why not?

Republicans can make anything they want happen pretty damned fast.

Since Dems started saying "these things take time" about 30 years ago, we have been mostly going backward.

It isn't time that is needed. Time is an excuse, always has been. Will and courage are what have been lacking.

Seems to me that what takes time and patience is losing, not winning. "These things take time" and losing are inextricably linked over the last few decades or so.

A sense of urgency is what has been missing, not patience.

[geek tragedy]

55. We have the same base we did in 2004 and 2000.

It hasn't grown an inch.

[davidpdx]

11. That's possible, but no Ohio or Florida makes me nervous

It also writes off Nevada and Virginia. I really hope we win those as well. Registration in Nevada has shifted sharply (I wish I could remember the article I read that in), though there are a lot of older people which would favor McCain.

Ohio
Florida
Nevada
Virginia

It would be really nice if we could pick off 2 or 3 of those 4.

[funflower]

19. I'm not ready to give up on Nevada or Virginia.

Both have democratic senators and/or governors.

[davidpdx]

66. Yeah that's what I meant

I think Nevada given the registration changes will go blue. Virginia is going to be close.

[flamingdem]

12. To Obama's people in OH and CO - I just want you to know how much I love you

and my thoughts are with you and I promise lots of hugs for all your work, really!!!!!!!!

[otohara]

16. I've Been Phone Banking in Denver

Denver is in the bag for Obama, it's those suburbs that scare me.

[flamingdem]

25. I am visualizing your success in the 'burbs!

Just watch out for the NRA bumperstickers...

[rockymountaindem]

30. Well, if it's any comfort we all know the JeffCo Republicans are imploding

Although the gross malfeasance hasn't stopped them before :eyes:

[harry_pothead]

27. Hey

What about us Obama people in NV? NV plus all the Gore/Kerry states is 269 EVs -- a WIN with us in control of the house.

[Agent William]

33. Now thats perspective

I didn't look at it that way. Thanks!

[flamingdem]

41. I love you in Nevada, absolutely

and truly. I do. Thanks for the tons of work you're doing.

Please be nice to all the Californians who invade over the next few weeks.

[CitizenLeft]

60. thank you for that

As an Ohioan, somebody who took part in the 2004 recount, and a hardcore Democrat all my life, living in the bluest part of the state, I reeeeaaally get sick and tired of people asking "WTF is wrong with those people in Ohio?" I could equally ask "WTF is wrong with every other state that ever went Republican" but I don't because, short of brainwashing, I CAN'T CONTROL WHAT RACIST/REDNECK/UNINFORMED VOTERS DO. For Christ's sake, give the fucking Ohio bashing A REST.

Oh, but THANK YOU for the hug... we need it.

[msongs]

13. USC slapped them senseless tonight, obama can do the same lol nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. The election will be over by 10 pm Eastern time

This is all a fun parlor game.

[sandnsea]

22. CO, NM, NH, IA - and maybe NV

We've got two ways to go this year, so that's double the chance of 2004. We should really be more optimistic around here.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. We need to regain the lead in national polling

That will take care of the individual states, if Obama leads nationally by 2 or 3.

I'd hate to count on winning Ohio or Colorado if the national margin is even.

The primary bullshit about expanding the playing field was outrageous. I was posting that at the time. It was insulting and I can't believe so many people fell for it. States like Montana and North Dakota, etc. were never in play, regardless of early idiotic state polls. No chance states with 38+% conservatives are voting for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

The legit argument was whether Obama's comparative strength in the western states was greater or less significant in electoral vote terms than Hillary's strength in Ohio and Florida.

Let's just win Ohio. That state wants to vote blue right now. It takes care of so much to snag 20 electoral votes. Otherwise you need a trifecta.

[Statistical]

32. So popular vote does matter (at least indirectly). :)

So popular vote does matter (at least indirectly). :)

So few people don't notice that. The EV determines the winner BUT states don't vote completely independent of the pop vote.

Some states are redder than avg, some are bluer than the average.

Take PA & OH. OH is slightly redder than the national average. PA is slightly bluer than national average.

With pop vote close to tied one is going McCain and the other is going Obama.

If McCain is leading pop vote by 3% on election day then Obama taking OH is virtually impossible and PA will likely go Red.
If Obama is leading pop vote by 3% on election day then McCain taking PA is virtually impossible and OH will likely go Blue.

[writes3000]

39. But, are the polls properly predicting the balance of Democrats vs. Republicans?

When I see a poll that shows fewer blacks voting this year than in 2004, I'm highly suspicious.

[fujiyama]

37. At this point

maybe the trifecta is easier than OH as a whole. I think Obama will take IA for one, and he is doing well among Hispanics in NM and CO. NH is less likely to be swayed by evangelical candidates than OH, but the whole hockey mom, my husband rides a snow mobile, thing may resonate with New Hampshire voters. NV would be a great pick too, but it seems to be more culturally similar to AZ and I think it has many seniors as well, which is not Obama's strongest demographic. I hate to see that Obama is still forced to play defense in MI and PA. I think he'll get them both in the end, but both are must wins.

[TheKentuckian]

31. Each cycle we actively fight for all 50 states

the closer it comes to reality to compete in all 50 (or close there to).

What was done this year will pay dividends, hopefully now but certainly into the future, if we keep it up.

Changing the board may not be plausible in a single cycle but to give yourself so few possibilities over time is not sound strategy. The fortress electoral strategy already left us gerrymandered almost out of existence before but some still pine for it as a limb to go out on to browbeat in the middle of the war. If we can't compete in every state in the union, we best find out how and make it happen, rather than retreating into our safe havens and cowering through the night.

[Corey_Baker08]

34. OHIO will Go for Obama in November

as a resident of this great state I have never heard of as many people switching from the republican base to the democratic candidate....

[flamingdem]

38. hooray, love you Ohio

I do.

[Agent William]

44. Is that what you feel will happen?

Thats encouraging to here. I just keep seeing bad news and this is fresh air coming from someone actually from Ohio. Just tell me it's different from 2000, and 2004. I can tell you that it is different on this end too. :hi:

Good news! :toast:

[Tigress DEM]

48. Well the PEOPLE of Ohio did their job in 2004 also, but ...

Aren't there attempts to mess with you guys again?

Foreclosure lists or something like that?

[geek tragedy]

58. Then why is he doing worse in the polls than Kerry did?

Sorry, I just don't see it.

[Unsane]

45. Why is Obama suddenly out of the running in VA, IN, NV, FL?

[Tigress DEM]

47. I think the polls are just plain wrong.

I believe I did hear they're contacting more rethugs than DEMS for the polls - yeah, we all have to work for a living.

AND these poll numbers aren't including the millions of newly registered voters in the US who are primarily DEMS.

Everywhere he goes in the US he attracts 30 thousand to 80 thousand and in Germany it was something like 300,000.

McBlither had to bus in people from 10 states to fill up the Excel Center (20,000 seats minus 3,000 for special live TV setup)

[geek tragedy]

57. FL and VA were always questionable.

IN was never going to happen.

NV is a conservative, Republican state.

[goodgd_yall]

71. VA is still a possible Obama catch

I think Indiana is out. NV, a low confidence maybe. Florida is a possibility. I don't know what polls the OP was relying on. If it's Rasmussen, then no wonder it looks the way it does.

[BlooInBloo]

53. Yah - because NOTHING will change between now and the election...

Sheesh. Fools.

[L. Coyote]

56. Au H2 '08

Sweep 49 states, or bust all 50!!

[Edgewater_Joe]

59. Southern OH Is What's Wrong

Appalachia -- the one area that Hillary took, for reasons that had no reason whatsoever to do with her and everything to do with Obama's skin color -- is in OH, and they're also full of evangelicals who undoubtedly are speaking in tongues over PaLIEn, that's what's wrong with Ohio.

They'll be a very, very tough nut to crack. (And I grew up there.)

[flamingdem]

65. Good luck Ohioans, we love you!

[demokatgurrl]

61. I think Nevada would help

www.electoral-vote.com

[flamingdem]

67. Is FLORIDA completely hopeless? For real or due to disallowed votes????????

Where should they be putting their efforts.

I'm going to begin calling Florida since my family is there and doing so as well. Free calls why not.

[mb7588a]

70. Had a related thread on this earlier:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7077967&mesg_id=7077967

Also, where did you go to create your own map? Thanks!

[goodgd_yall]

72. If Obama wins Virginia

he doesn't need Colorado or Ohio.