Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and nutcutting time

[BeyondGeography]

As Barack Obama meets with Bill Clinton today, I am reminded of one of Lyndon Johnson's favorite phrases about politics: nutcutting. This refers to doing the things you have to do to win elections. Rick Perlstein writes about it at length in Nixonland, where Nixon's primary nutcutting act was promising Strom Thurmond he would nominate states rights-oriented judges to the Supreme Court and drag his feet or outright oppose any number of desegregation acts. Nixon's fealty to Thurmond helped keep Wallace from sweeping the South in 1968 and played a major role in his victory that year.

As Barack meets Bill, I am confident he will do what he has to do to get the Big Dog firmly on board for the final 55 days. This will involve far less than screwing with federal law and keeping the nation divided along racial lines. Barack needs to show real love, and make Bill one of his confidants as we go down the home stretch.

Let bygones be bygones. Bill has hard feelings about the way Barack talked down his achievements and is now pumping them up. At the same time, he no doubt appreciates that Barack did what he had to do to defeat his wife. Barack needs to take the first step on healing that wound, give Bill assurances on his role in his White House, and follow up with regular phone calls. He needs to charm him, build his way toward real affection between them. If Bill has requests for Hillary, meet them. No time to waste.

There are a lot of reasons why. Bill loves the game and is a first-rate campaigner, we know that. There is also the money angle, which is not insignificant. If the suggestion is made that, in return for his full investment in this race, Barack supports Hillary in 2012 if things don't work out, go there. You think that's outrageous? This is politics.

It's nutcutting time, Barack. Do whatever it takes.

[WinkyDink]

1. "Do whatever it takes." Because the nation, the WORLD, demands it.

[TornadoTN]

7. Agreed- DO WHATEVER IT TAKES

The gloves need to come off and we need to take the fight to the streets.

I'm as big of an Obama supporter as they come, but I'll admit to becoming a bit pissed at how a lot of the McCain campaign's smears and messages just got unanswered or weakly swatted away. I, for one, am glad to see the Big Dog getting on board and helping. We need it.

[TwilightGardener]

2. Why is the assumption always that if Obama loses this year, he won't

run again in 2012 but Hillary will? I know that's not the main point of your post, and I agree with most of it, but I keep seeing this idea over and over--that if Obama loses now, he's done forever.

[BeyondGeography]

4. No way is he done forever

And, you're right, that is not the point of my post. As for what he does in the future, that depends how much the Clintons follow through this time around, right? I don't think he runs against HRC in 2012 if it comes to it, but there would be a big difference between him supporting her full out and staying on the sidelines.

[geek tragedy]

8. Because if he blows it in a year like this, Democrats

will not be willing to give him a second bite at the apple. If he can't win now, he's simply unelectable.

[TwilightGardener]

10. That's not true at all--he's still a relatively new presence, and people

would probably be more accepting of him as familiar and "more seasoned" the second time around. And...psst..he IS black, in case you haven't noticed. He meets more resistance than the average Presidential candidate.

[geek tragedy]

12. I won't.

I don't support people who run shitty campaigns against the Republicans. This should have been a slam dunk, and to lose it would permanently disqualify the person who blew it.

My options in 2012 would be Hillary, Mark Warner, and Brian Schweitzer.

[BeyondGeography]

13. We got your point...I was hoping to avoid a primary-oriented flamefest

Thanks in advance for cooperating.

[goclark]

16. Me too ~

:thumbsup:

[TwilightGardener]

17. Until Obama has lost, you really have no reason to be so relentlessly negative

on him. The Republicans are doing slash-and-burn/gutter politics now, because they're desperate to hang on to power--they are terrified of losing their neocon goals in the ME, terrified that their corruption will be exposed and ended, terrified that the distracting culture wars and division will be quieted and that Americans will start wising up about how badly they've been screwed, terrified that the oil industry and the military/industrial complex won't be able to make them and their cronies rich anymore. This wouldn't have been a "slam dunk" for any Dem candidate. The media has been endlessly repeating that Obama "should" win because everyone hates Bush and the country is in the shitter, but many people don't vote on issues and on their own realities, they vote for emotional reasons and they like good stories--and War Hero Maverick McCain will have a floor of Repub support of at least 40%, always. The media isn't exactly fair either, which is a big factor, not to mention that McCain has many hours of national free advertising on RW talk radio across the country (which does nothing but bash Obama every day) for millions of listeners of Limbaugh, Hannity, Boortz, etc. Just accept that it will be close--and get over the idea that this would be easy.

[Chan790]

31. Well...

why don't you throw Bob Casey into the mix and we can give away all of the values this party used to stand upon?

I'm a liberal. I am an anti-centrist. Only liberal values will save America. I'm sick of kowtowing to support candidates to the right of me because they're "electable"...the GOP doesn't worry about such things and low and behold they win. If Obama loses and those are the best I have to look forward to in 2012...I'll vote socialist. No more moderates! Not now, not in 2012, not ever.

This election hasn't ever been a slam-dunk...the primary fight made it so. I said it months ago and I'll repeat it now. The candidate in firmly entrenched in second place (which turned out to be Hillary...I'd have said the same thing if it had been Obama. I voted Kucinich.) needed to be encouraged to drop out early rather than dragging it out. The amount of $ wasted in the primary because that fight dragged on is enough to have made this a slam-dunk. This race is now close because McCain got his nomination early and we didn't. QED.

[jbnow]

37. The one virtue of the long primary was an early

start at voter registration and increased voter interest.

But the bad part...oh the bad part. Money is almost the least of it. Only way Clinton could win after February is to really bring Obama down... Like Gergen said they decided to use not just the kitchen sink but the bathroom sink, really smear him.
He'd have faced it now but all the slams have so much more weight when they were started within our own party and went on so long. It gave her supporters deeper doubts if they didn't get that was negative campaigning and he's not really an unprepared nothing who breaks his word and has dark and dangerous friends blah blah

I was so thrilled with Bill's convention speech. Bill did what Hillary didn't...he spoke up Obama himself, not just the policies of the party. Said he was ready, said he was the right man...
Anyway I am glad they are meeting. They both felt disrespected by the other. And Bill made the call!

This could be good...

[knixphan]

41. agreed.

This is his first campaign. If he were to lose to the pukes, the young voters will realize that they need even MORE numbers.

That won't happen though. We're gonna do this.

[Arkansas Granny]

15. If Obama loses this year (perish the thought) I would expect him and Hillary both

to run again in 2012.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Want Obama To Win ...The Alternative Is Unf-ingimaginable

I don't want to hijack this thread...

This is the best political environment for a Democrat since 1976 and the second best since 1932...If a Democratic candidate can't win in this environment does he really deserve a second chance?

[TwilightGardener]

26. "In this environment"? You mean where the media starts and ends

each day saying things like, "Now, how much does this hurt Obama?" "This election is a referendum on Obama." "The race now is tied--Obama is ON THE ROPES!" "Obama must be careful not to appear too arrogant and presumptuous." "Is Obama TOO Presidential, will that turn people off?" "Let's play John McCain's attack ad for our viewers one more time, in case they missed it--is there truth in this ad?" "White women don't like Obama, Hispanics won't vote for a black man, Obama has trouble with the working class vote, Obama has trouble with the Catholic vote, does Obama have a Jewish problem?" Srsly, it's a miracle he's doing as well as he is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Every Available Metric Favors The Democrat

It's up to the candidate to cut through the fog...


And why would it be different in four years or eight years or twelve years...


If we lose this it would be as if Roosevelt lost to Hoover and Carter lost to Ford which he almost did...

Hopefully, he will be running again in 012 as the incumbent...A loss in this environment will shake the party to its core...

[TwilightGardener]

32. I agree a loss would be terribly demoralizing to the party, and set us back

for the foreseeable future--BUT: Obama can only control so much from his standpoint. The media wants this race to be close, and they probably want McLoser to win, and they'll rig it that way, same as they started pulling for Hillary Clinton and making the Dem primaries go into extra innings. If Obama takes a swing, they'll either ignore it or minimize it, or they'll say it's good...for McCain (remember, the "7 Houses" ad was deemed "good for McCain" by some pundits, because it supposedly allowed the GOP to "take the gloves off" against Obama). If Obama responds to an attack, they'll say "Oh, McLoser or Palin must be getting under his skin, it must be effective." If Obama ignores an attack, he's weak. I think Obama is a far better candidate than Kerry or Gore--I wasn't nearly as impressed with either of them. But in the end, the media dictates how these candidates are viewed by the low-info soundbite voter, thus some of this is not under his control.

[BeyondGeography]

33. It would be wrong for him to try again in 2012, IMHO

But he'd have other chances after that, I'm sure. There'd be no sense in trying to block HRC again; wouldn't look good and would be politically impossible anyway.

But the point in raising that is not to get back into old battles, it's to suggest that Obama is in a position to be generous to the Clintons now, since, if it comes to it, 2012 is an iffy proposition at best for him anyway.

[Phoonzang]

35. He won't be able to run in 2012. It'll probably be 16-20 years before he's able to

muster up enough credibility to get the nomination again.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. What the phrase nut cutting time means literally (It's not what it sounds like)

It doesn't refer to castration, though it sure sounds that way.

It's when you have tried everything to remove a rusted-in-place or stripped nut in an industrial context, twisting, heating, etc.

When every way of turning the nut proves hopeless you have to physically cut the nut off of the bolt.

So it's the acceptance of an extreme measure when every lesser step has failed.

Just thought folks might like to know where the phrase originated.

[BeyondGeography]

6. Thanks...LBJ took the more anatomical view of the term

"I've got Hubert's pecker in my pocket," was one of his favorite lines. It referred to HHH's promise of unconditional support for LBJ's Vietnam policy.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. LBJ was big on "earthy"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. What Advice Would He Give Obama?

Obama is the embodiment of his dream...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

30. Not to run. LBJ was also a master political realist and vote counter

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Harold Ford Got 49% Of The Vote In Tennessee...Why Can't A Man Of Color Get 50.1% In America?

~

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

36. A black man can easily win. If Colin Powell was running his only handicap would be being Republican

But an inexperienced non-southerner of color with no military service is adding up a lot of negatives.

No non-southern Dem has won since 1960, and that wasn't even a clean win. So even if Obama were white and well-known and a war hero and richly experienced, but from the north, he would be still facing a big historical hurdle. (He would be John Kerry!)

I think Obama will win, but it is political malpractice to assemble such a cluster of electoral historical hurdles in one package.

[tekisui]

5. It's time to expose and destroy mccain/palin.

[geek tragedy]

9. He needs to take Bill's advice.

Bill knows how to get it done against the Republicans.

[undeterred]

14. Bill can say some of the shit that Obama can't.

Cheaper and faster than a 527.

[karynnj]

22. I would say he needs to listen to Clinton's advice AND the advice of others

and from all of them make a decision. The fact is that Clinton is a very politician, but he was also a lucky one running in 1992 when GHWB had an approval rating near where his son's in now - about 15 points lower than W's was in 2004.

From the primaries, we saw that Clinton's strategy was not as good as that of Obama snd the various people advising Obama. There are major changes in the media and the culture that occurred after Clinton left office.

Obama would be wrong not to hear Clinton's advice, but he would also be wrong to blindly follow it.

[Skwmom]

18. Support Hillary if it doesn't work out would put the Clinton machine in overdrive

to defeat him. That would be STUPID!

Bill loves Bill. He doesn't give a damn about this country.

[BeyondGeography]

19. It would be based on actual behavior, nothing in writing just a mutual understanding

We're talking nutcutting, not suicide.

[Skwmom]

21. I'd let Clinton now that IF I lost and I felt it was due to undermining by his group that

I would do everything in my power to make sure his wife loses in 2012 by backing another candidate (Schweitzer seems like a great candidate and if McCain takes it b/c of Palin, he would be a perfect candidate to support).

[BeyondGeography]

23. Nothing wrong with leaving a hint of that in the air

without being so explicit.

[Skwmom]

25. I would not be explicit but I would get my message across. In fact,

I would have one person cataloging actions by Clintons and their surrogates to use as ammunition in a book if they did undermine me (though I would have been doing this months ago).

[BeyondGeography]

27. That's fine, too

But I have been impressed with the public behavior of Clinton surrogates so far. Think of Kiki McLean, who I couldn't picture liking at all during primary season. She has been rock solid on the shows; just as good for Obama as she was for Clinton. You also have Begala, who hasn't given an inch to McCain and is throwing verbal haymakers for us, Wasserman-Schultz, who we all now love and others.

[IndianaJones]

24. bwaaahaha...pre-whining. nt.

[amborin]

38. We Must HIT HARD....with FACTS and ISSUES affecting Voters

do WHATEVER it takes

nothing's off the table until we win

the rethugs are criminals, they will stoop to anything

let's not let them out-fox us

[tpi10d]

39. "mark my words-it will be more of the same"

Obama looks into the camera eye and says this with passion at the end of every appearance: "If McCain wins mark my words it will be more of the same, lets get out there and get the job done this time!"

[Geek_Girl]

40. It's throw everything at them including the kitchen sink time.

nt

[demo dutch]

42. I hope the Big Dog gives him some pointers on fighting the GOP Rove Machine, 'cause we

all know, Bill knows how to fight that battle!