Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win

[LuckyTheDog]

http://news.yahoo.com/s//afp/20080910/ts_afp/usvotepollemory

NEW YORK (AFP) - A pollster whose mathematical model has correctly predicted every winner of the White House popular vote since 1988 is banking on a decisive victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November.

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain.

That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Abramowitz said.

[tekisui]

1. I concur.

[Wetzelbill]

2. I still say it looks good

The EC is excellent for Obama. Plus, being even at this point is bad for McCain.

[connecticut yankee]

3. I pray that it comes true

[Window]

4. K/R.

:kick:

[Sodan]

5. Yes We Can!

[wildflower]

6. That is great. But this is the popular vote?

Or is 54.3/45.7 enough of a margin to affect the electoral vote?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It Would Be Virtually Impossible To Lose The E C With That Kind Of Pop Vote

But it's just a model after all...

[RichGirl]

10. I would say yes...

Now if he got big numbers in mostly red states (like GA, NC, etc.) that he didn't win in the end, then maybe not. But I think he'll get enough in blue states.

Even though this is much needed good news, we still need to work as if those numbers are reversed.

[Lint Head]

8. This sounds great but nobody is perfect and not always right.

We still need to work hard to get Obama in the White House. :dem:

[agentS]

9. This is from the article

And the model faces a complication this year with the wild-card presence of two third-party candidates, independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, on the ballot for the November 4 election.

Well, Nadar's not polling anywhere near 2% so he's not a factor. Bob Barr is polling highly at 5%, 4%, and in some states 11%. McCain is in for a slog if he thinks he can win with Barr pulling away disgruntled conservatives.

[RichGirl]

13. They have two...

...Bob Barr and Ron Paul, who, I believe, both are stronger with their supporters.

You would think that our side would have an advantage because of 2000. As a citizen, the only real say any of us have is our vote. It's beyond me why anyone would want to waste that to make a statement that nobody hears! (I mean really, after 2000 the only statement they made was "I'm an idiot...I helped make GWB president, who turned out to be nothing like Gore!!") But, even among liberals there are slow learners.

Sorry Nader supporters. I respect your passion. But, in retrospect, considering the last eight years, was it worth it?

[tallahasseedem]

11. While that is wonderful news...

we simply can't let down until after the election.

[saltpoint]

12. I'm for it, and what say we run up the score, too.

[yourguide]

14. great news!