NEW BATTLEGROUND POLLS!

[Hope And Change]

Michigan: Obama 49, McCain 45
Missouri: McCain 50, Obama 45
New Hampshire: Obama 51, McCain 45
Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46
Dates conducted: September 7-9. Error margin: 3 points.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/10/new-timecnn-battleground-numbers-coming/

[LynneSin]

1. Now THESE are polls that should be shown on DU

Who cares what the country thinks - we have to think about the states.

[gratefultobelib]

2. Whoo! We've gained ground in Missouri!!!

[WI_DEM]

3. Great! VA will improve, too.

[underpants]

VA will be fluid until election day

W was never up by more than the MOE in 2004
How did he win by 8%??? (whistles) mystery Shenandoah votes

Larry Sabato was on TV yesterday talking out NoVA and Navy rich Hampton Roads elements but then he also said that the whole thing pointed to an Obama landslide a month or so ago (with two other well known polisci guys) :shrug:

Hold on, here we go.

[DemsUnited]

19. NoVA has an amazing ground organization in place that has been working

hard for MONTHS. I would say that a month ago, Sabato was right about an Obama landslide because the conservative parts of the state were so apathetic about McCain. Needless to say, that's all changed. However, if we are as successful at GOTV in NoVA, Richmond and Hampton Roads as we hope to be, Virginia is still a realistic swing state. It will be close.

[kwolf68]

4. Love the Mich poll

It was 1 yesterday, now its back up to 5. Good news in New Hampshire.

[d_b]

5. michigan and new hampshire

are states we should be taking anyway. I want to see Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

[kwolf68]

6. Latest from

New Mexico and Colorado was positive for our side. I think if we get those two states and hold serve with the Kerry states, we get the win.

Also, supposedly Florida is in play. Then again PA (Kerry state) is in the mix for McLame and Flat Earth Freda.

[d_b]

8. awesome

I'm not trying to debase the results, I'd just like to know about the turf we're trying to TAKE.

[LibDemAlways]

14. I think PA is safely Democratic. Ohio will once again be

pivotal. If I was in the Obama camp, I'd go all out there.

[Lugnut]

43. I live in PA

I'm never comfortable about my state until after the polls close on election day and the returns come in. I'm encouraged though by the number of new Democrats being registered.

[PCIntern]

49. Agreed...

the number of Dems who arent' voting for Obama is staggering...and they have to be shown the light one at a time. "It's hard work!!"

[FatDave]

47. Disagree on Ohio.

If we get it, it's a sure win for Obama. But in no way do we need it.

Assume Barack gets all Kerry's states plus IA and NM. No reason he shouldn't, especially w/ this latest poll in NH. That's 264 electoral votes right there. He can win the election by picking up any one of the following states: OH, FL, VA, MO, or CO. McCain would have to win all five of them and NV in order to win the election.

Likeliest scenario IMO is CO. Any others are icing on the cake.

[chiefofclarinet]

36. We also need Iowa + 1 EV

The Kerry states, plus Colorado and New Mexico, plus Iowa, will get us to 269 votes. We either need another state, or to swing 2nd District (Omaha) in Nebraska.

Iowa has been polling very Obama lately, (CNN had it up 15 points for Obama) so that is safe. With North Dakota being up now, we could be looking at a win.

[bornskeptic]

46. No, Kerry states(252) +IA(7), CO(9), and NM(5) is 273.

That would be enough.

[Cosmocat]

39. Pa won't make or break the election ...

Michigan will fold off before PA does. If BO loses Pa, he will have gotten washed out.

Pa isn't exactly safe, but it is DARN close. But, that you can't SAY it is safe, all the talking heads have overplayed it as a "swing" state.

[LibDemAlways]

10. Yep. I think Obama has a good chance to win Nevada and

New Mexico, but I'm not so sure about Colorado. I think it may once again come down to Ohio and he'll need tremendous resouces on the ground to prevent another vote fraud fiasco.

[Romulox]

13. This attitude is likely why Michigan is a battleground state.

You don't win a state that is statistically tied by taking it for granted.

[iceman66]

22. Agreed.

I think Florida is also one to watch. Palin doesn't seem to be helping McCain as much there as in some of the other swing states and I believe they've no longer using Diebold machines this year.

[David Zephyr]

25. What's wrong with people here? You are right. These states are our base.

We are cheering because we are ahead in Michigan?

Thanks for your tonic of intelligence here.

If we are cheering because we are ahead in our base electoral states, then we are delusionary.

[Hippo_Tron]

26. The fact that Obama is over 51% in New Hampshire and close to it in Michigian is a good sign

McSame is making a serious push to take Michigan out of Obama's column. Obama meanwhile has several red states he can dig into that put him where he needs to be.

[On the Road]

7. Michigan is the One I'm Watching

That is key for an Obama victory -- a five-point lead is good.

[soleft]

9. There was a site that had a map in 2004

Anyone remember - was it on a poll site?

[goldcanyonaz]

11. electoral-vote.com has it.

[Hope And Change]

16. You mean this one...

Click here:

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-nprOvM/

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. I'm upset about Virginia. We've been working very hard in this state.

An entire group of us are working like dogs every weekend, all weekend! :( :( :(

[d_b]

17. turnout turnout turnout

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. Yeah, I know, I know... n/t

[LibDemAlways]

20. Wasn't Webb's margin of victory pretty small despite all the

furor over Macaca?

I know Virginia has been trending blue lately, but McCain's military credientials would, I think, play well there.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. Don't despair, I don't remember any polls showing Webb ever leading outside of the margin of error

Yet he pulled it off. Keep doing what you're doing and it will certainly pay off.

[GrizzlyMan]

32. I seem to remember Webb being down by 2 on election day

We know how that turned out.

[DemsUnited]

29. Keep up that fighting spirit! I'm in Northern VA and our ground game rocks!

It will be close, no doubt. Palin sparks up the conservative parts of the state that were looking pretty apathetic. But we're still a realistic battleground.

[wildeyed]

45. Keep doing what you are doing.

Webb pulled off a squeaker there last election. :patriot:

[StrongBad]

15. I'm happy (but not surprised) about NH

NH is known for their independent streak and probably see through McCain's Palin pandering like grandma's underpants.

[RepublicanElephant]

21. how many of these states have republican governors with electronic voting machines?

the lower that number, the happier i'll be.

[AllentownJake]

24. Missouri

That's it.

[Hippo_Tron]

28. Yes and Missouri has a Democratic Secretary of State

[DemsUnited]

30. Tim Kaine, Governor of VA, early Obama supporter, VP shortlist!

Plus, we've had some success with verified voting (paper audit trail). Still a long way to go, though.

[Phoonzang]

23. What about CO? It's the key to winning in the "close victory" model. n/t

[DangerDave921]

31. NH is battleground?

What does it have -- 4 EV's?

[Hope And Change]

33. Yes, that is correct.

[DangerDave921]

34. my wife's grandparents live up there

Diehard liberals. Socialists maybe even. They're pretty old. lol.

They thought Bush was going to declare martial law in 2004 and suspend the elections. They hate him with such a burning passion.

[chiefofclarinet]

41. Every (electoral) vote counts

Remember, all we need is Kerry's states, plus IA (Obama by 15 in CNN poll and excellent for Obama the entire time), NM (trending Obama), and CO (trending Obama) to get to a 269-269 tie. Literally ONE EV is all we need to get a win, and that can come from 2nd district in Nebraska, since Nebraska can divide its vote by its congressional districts. That's an Obama/Biden win. We don't need OH, VA, FL, IN, MO, or NC; just Omaha, Nebraska.

However, we need to keep every Kerry state for that little scenario to work. Although IL, NY, CA, MA, and the like are no-brainers, we still need to keep PA, MI, and (yes) NH in our column. Yes, NH is only 4 EV's, but we would need to find 4 more elsewhere.

[DangerDave921]

44. Nice explanation

Thanks!

[rucky]

35. Missouri? No shit?!

sa-WEET!

[Imalittleteapot]

37. See encouraging breakdowns

http://thepage.time.com/more-from-the-timecnn-michigan-poll/

All I heard yesterday is how McCain was winning among women.

[secondwind]

38. Listen Up! We need to win Michigan............and we are only 4 pts. ahead, a dead heat

and we need to "stay on message" there, and do it often.

McCain/Palin aren't offering anything.

[Romulox]

50. Governor Granholm on David Gregory's program just now: "Obama and Biden need to BE HERE."

In other words, she was exhorting Obama and Biden to spend some time in Michigan, and concentrate on our problems for a bit...

[CitizenPatriot]

54. what to do about oakland county pukes

somebody needs to clue those oakland county repukes in -- here they are, going broke in the worst real estate problem in america -- and some of these people are voting repuke! why do people vote against their own economic interest?

Oh, to those of you who know where I'm talking about, I'm referring to the northern suburbs (not bloomfield hills, etc -- but more north).

read today about the pukes doing massive voter challenges in oakland county due to the foreclosures. they are going to do it all over michigan. that is horrible and I hate them for this; hurting people again by taking away their right to vote! even if they can't prove the people don't still live in the house, but were just served the papers.

and special kick in the ass from the party who brought you the sub-prime disaster. asshats.

[ailsagirl]

40. Let's get some more recs please!! This is GOOD news

[CaliforniaPeggy]

42. K&R!

[ailsagirl]

48. KICK

[Joanne98]

51. McCain is losing NH? Wow!

[icanthelpit]

52. Obama conceding Georgia

Obama is conceding Georgia. At some point in the future with Atlanta, the exurbs and the AA vote, Georgia may turn democratic, but for now, oh well.

[CitizenPatriot]

53. this is FASLE.

do not believe this.

I work on the campaign in GA.

[icanthelpit]

55. About Georgia, CitizenPatriot

Georgia is not seriously in play. He gambled that it would force McCain to have to spend there, but the internals are horrible and he's shifting north to NC and VA.

[CitizenPatriot]

56. OKAY

whatever....question to you: if Georgia isn't in play, why then did the pukes put vote switching devices on the Diebolds here in the last 2 elections? Why did the votes turn out to be the exact opposite of the exit polls?

Why did the SOS aid turn in the hampered with voting machines which were placed in Dem heavy areas?

We lost those elections BARELY and again the numbers matched the exit polls but in reverse.

Just saying.

[icanthelpit]

57. Took two minutes to find,

http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/2008/09/10/D9341CAO0_obama_georgia/index.html

Sep 10th, 2008 | ATLANTA -- Democrat Barack Obama's campaign has pulled ads running in Georgia and shifted some of its paid campaign staff from Georgia to North Carolina while contending that it's not surrendering the state to Republican John McCain

[CitizenPatriot]

58. an article trumps my experience here?

I'm not going to argue this with you anymore. Don't try to discourage people here by saying this.

DUers -- TRUST ME! You can read up on my posts. I've been working for his campaign for months here. Not as if they need this state, but no one has given up. 'nuff said.