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Every time I get home and turn on the cable programs they are running a clip with Obama trying to explain something. It wasn't supposed to be this way after 8 years of Bush. Obama needs to watch Bill Clinton's convention speech and apply the devastating breakdown of Democrats vs. Republicans on all the basic economic results of the past 16 years. If we keep debating pigs and Palin that's a win for McCain hour by hour.
I never thought I'd see the day that McCain is favored on Intrade, but that popped up today. My friend and I played more on Obama. What the hell. We already had some from a few days ago, averaging 53. I still think it's decent value.
The problem now is Obama's weakness in states like Ohio comes into play, the rural areas. As long as he maintained a national lead of 2-3 points, the individual states will take care of themselves. But at dead even nationally there's question whether the vital swing states will tilt somewhat red compared to the nation itself. That was always Hillary's case, that states like Florida and Ohio were more demographically friendly to her. My Excel models always indicated she was about a half point better than Obama in terms of where the popular vote needed to be to secure at least 270 electoral votes.
If Obama finds his game and starts running effective commercials, he should get a bit of a recoil in the polls. The country still prefers to vote blue in 2008.
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