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Anybody up for recalculating recent polls with July's Party ID numbers?

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President_Obama Donating Member (168 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 08:29 PM
Original message
Anybody up for recalculating recent polls with July's Party ID numbers?
So the pollsters have decided to prop McCain up by fudging the Party ID numbers.

Let's figure out what these recent polls would have looked like if the pollsters hadn't decided to suddenly, and simultaneously, shift party id to the right.
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FARAFIELD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. 40% Repukes 28% Dem 32% Indy
Of course the press didnt report that Just that McCain "won" the poll 54 44, of course I love internals so when someone told me at work he heard it I said he was full of shit. If you look at the internals though, Obama actually "won" the independents. But the weighting (in order to find likely voters) forced Gallup/CNN to weight it heavily for Republicans. End of Story.
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BzaDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 09:00 PM
Response to Original message
2. I don't know if the party ID numbers are fudged.
Almost all polling organizations that I have seen are reporting that more people are saying that they are Republicans than in previous party-ID polls. This may just be a temporary bump, but I don't think they are "fudging" anything.
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President_Obama Donating Member (168 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 09:04 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. that still doesn' t add up to 40% repuke 28% dem, now does it?
face it, they manipulated the numbers to give McCain a bounce where none actually existed.
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-09-08 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. What poll used 40% rep 28% dem?
Edited on Tue Sep-09-08 09:13 PM by Statistical
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.


So it was:
AUG 40.6% dem 31.6% rep 27.8% unaffiliated
SEP 39.7% dem 32.1% rep 28.2% unaffiliated

I still would like to see Rasmussen explain why the dem# went down but rounding the numbers are 40/32/28 an 8point lead for dems not a 12 lead for rep like you claim.

Of course maybe the 40/28 split was for a deep south state like Georgia or Alabama but that would kinda make sense because there are a lot of fucking REDS in the south.


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